1/ Excited to partner with @SnapshotLabs to bring futarchy market signals directly into Snapshot.
Tokenholders and delegates in participating DAOs can now see expected market impact before voting.
Now live on Snapshot: Advisory Futarchy, built with @_futarchy and currently running on @Kleros_io's latest proposal.
Traditional Futarchy lets markets decide outcomes.
Advisory Futarchy lets markets advise while governance decides.
Imagine I post $X in support of my blog, & if anyone disagrees w/ any claim I make there & posts $Y, & if I don't concede, judge rules who gets $(X+Y-J) where $J is judging fee. What should I call my post?
Technical problems prevented some traders from making positions for ~6 hours.
But the market battle over GIP-150 continues.
The "NO" side has now flipped to winning, and those in favor of the proposal can now buy GNO tokens conditional on proposal passing at a ~1% discount.
Outside activists want to dismantle GnosisDAO (@gnosis_) treasury. The team is fighting them off.
GIP-150 — a one-time pro-rata redemption: GNO for ETH, stables, and a claim on illiquid assets. Redeemed GNO is burned.
Vote closes May 12.
Conditional pool prices (both YES and NO) still trade below the proposal's worked-example per-GNO NAV.
48h TWAP window: May 9 17:34 → May 11 17:34 UTC, before the Snapshot vote closes May 12 will be considered the market recommendation.
Links below.
@gnosis_ is voting to put @_futarchy's prediction markets on every official governance proposal in a 9-month pilot - joining @Kleros_io and @VeloraDEX.
GIP-145 proposes advisory markets on Snapshot showing expected $GNO price impact before voters decide. Proposed by @azsantosk, backed by co-founder @koeppelmann - "now it seems FINALLY the time is right."
@_futarchy has a live market on this proposal to demonstrate the concept - pricing a +2.45% $GNO impact if the pilot passes.
Already proven at @Kleros_io:
1. Voters cited market signals in their rationale to reject a proposal.
2. The DAO now requires $PNK minting proposals to show a positive futarchy signal to pass.
3. The Kleros Cooperative will "delegate a substantial amount of voting power that will vote strictly according to the Futarchy signal."
Each market prices $GNO conditional on the proposal passing or failing - the percentage difference between YES and NO is the expected impact. Accuracy is measured by comparing 5-day TWAPs of each conditional token and GNO spot against the 24-hour TWAP of $GNO post-outcome.
Proposal: https://t.co/kTVbc35iTF
Live market: https://t.co/ZW251gtNiu
1/🧠 Futarchy market live for AAVE
A futarchy market is now live to evaluate the expected impact on AAVE price if the some version of @eboadom's Alignment Proposal is approved until the end of February.
5/ If you think this proposal would be positive for VLR token price, you can now buy tokens on the "YES" market for a discount.
If you think the proposal is negative for VLR, you can hedge the chance of it passing by selling VLR for a small discount.
End of the thread.
1/ PIP-75, a governance proposal for @VeloraDEX, is now live with advisory futarchy markets.
The proposal is to decide whether to accept a refund from a user, related to a March 2024 vulnerability.