Futarchy

First futarchy on Ethereum

[Futarchy @_futarchy]

1/ Excited to partner with @SnapshotLabs to bring futarchy market signals directly into Snapshot.

Tokenholders and delegates in participating DAOs can now see expected market impact before voting.

[Snapshot.eth @SnapshotLabs]

Now live on Snapshot: Advisory Futarchy, built with @_futarchy and currently running on @Kleros_io's latest proposal.

Traditional Futarchy lets markets decide outcomes.
Advisory Futarchy lets markets advise while governance decides.

[Robin Hanson @robinhanson]

Imagine I post $X in support of my blog, & if anyone disagrees w/ any claim I make there & posts $Y, & if I don't concede, judge rules who gets $(X+Y-J) where $J is judging fee. What should I call my post?

[Futarchy @_futarchy]

Technical problems prevented some traders from making positions for ~6 hours.

But the market battle over GIP-150 continues.

The "NO" side has now flipped to winning, and those in favor of the proposal can now buy GNO tokens conditional on proposal passing at a ~1% discount.

[Futarchy @_futarchy]

Links:

📈 https://t.co/cPGVlcBjJh
🗳️https://t.co/T3IC8FboFk
📜 https://t.co/4lWJeezoNT

[Futarchy @_futarchy]

Outside activists want to dismantle GnosisDAO (@gnosis_) treasury. The team is fighting them off.

GIP-150 — a one-time pro-rata redemption: GNO for ETH, stables, and a claim on illiquid assets. Redeemed GNO is burned.

Vote closes May 12.

[Futarchy @_futarchy]

Conditional pool prices (both YES and NO) still trade below the proposal's worked-example per-GNO NAV.

48h TWAP window: May 9 17:34 → May 11 17:34 UTC, before the Snapshot vote closes May 12 will be considered the market recommendation.

Links below.

[Snapshot.eth @SnapshotLabs]

@gnosis_ is voting to put @_futarchy's prediction markets on every official governance proposal in a 9-month pilot - joining @Kleros_io and @VeloraDEX.

GIP-145 proposes advisory markets on Snapshot showing expected $GNO price impact before voters decide. Proposed by @azsantosk, backed by co-founder @koeppelmann - "now it seems FINALLY the time is right."

@_futarchy has a live market on this proposal to demonstrate the concept - pricing a +2.45% $GNO impact if the pilot passes.

Already proven at @Kleros_io:
1. Voters cited market signals in their rationale to reject a proposal.
2. The DAO now requires $PNK minting proposals to show a positive futarchy signal to pass.
3. The Kleros Cooperative will "delegate a substantial amount of voting power that will vote strictly according to the Futarchy signal."

Each market prices $GNO conditional on the proposal passing or failing - the percentage difference between YES and NO is the expected impact. Accuracy is measured by comparing 5-day TWAPs of each conditional token and GNO spot against the 24-hour TWAP of $GNO post-outcome.

Proposal: https://t.co/kTVbc35iTF
Live market: https://t.co/ZW251gtNiu

[Clément Lesaege @clesaege]

Prediction market FUD according to brain size.

[Futarchy @_futarchy]

@Marczeller

[Futarchy @_futarchy]

1/🧠 Futarchy market live for AAVE

A futarchy market is now live to evaluate the expected impact on AAVE price if the some version of @eboadom's Alignment Proposal is approved until the end of February.

[Futarchy @_futarchy]

https://t.co/7w1gwSLEDH

[Futarchy @_futarchy]

@0xNairolf 👀

[Futarchy @_futarchy]

@Kleros_io @SEEDGov @VeloraDEX @seer_pm @SnapshotLabs It will show a chart soon!

[Futarchy @_futarchy]

5/ If you think this proposal would be positive for VLR token price, you can now buy tokens on the "YES" market for a discount.

If you think the proposal is negative for VLR, you can hedge the chance of it passing by selling VLR for a small discount.

End of the thread.

[Futarchy @_futarchy]

1/ PIP-75, a governance proposal for @VeloraDEX, is now live with advisory futarchy markets.

The proposal is to decide whether to accept a refund from a user, related to a March 2024 vulnerability.

[Futarchy @_futarchy]

4/ Currently the markets think this proposal passing would have a negative impact of 1%.