I'm going to make some obvious points.
(1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war.
(2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East.
(3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked.
(4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy.
(5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately.
(6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty.
That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area.
(7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people.
[a]: https://t.co/ITat4tmAFd
[b]: https://t.co/bWwiSQcgyt
[c]: https://t.co/FQCqMhy5d3
The CEO of the most advanced AI company in America just went on national television (Save this)
Hours after his company was blacklisted by the US government.
Here's what he said.
Dario Amodei built the only AI deployed inside the Pentagon's classified networks.
His company helped run military operations, intelligence, cyber defense.
Then the government told him to drop all safety limits.
He said no to two things.
Just two.
"One is domestic mass surveillance."
He explained: the government can already buy your location data, your browsing history, your political affiliations from private companies.
AI makes it possible to analyze all of it.
On every American, all at once.
"That actually isn't illegal. It was just never useful before the era of AI."
"Case number two is fully autonomous weapons."
Not the drones used in Ukraine and the remote-controlled systems.
Weapons that select targets and fire without a single human pressing a button.
"The AI systems of today are nowhere near reliable enough."
"We don't want to sell something that could get our own people killed or that could get innocent people killed."
He approved 98% of what the Pentagon wanted.
"No one on the ground has actually run into the limits of any of these exceptions."
The government wasn't fighting over something it needed.
It was fighting over the right to have no limits at all.
They gave him three days.
He said no.
So the President called his company "radical left woke."
Then ordered every federal agency to stop using their technology.
Then the Pentagon labeled them a national security risk.
A designation that has only ever been used against foreign enemies.
When asked if he'd received any formal legal action, he said this:
"All we've seen are tweets from the president and tweets from Secretary Hegseth."
No letter, filing or a legal document.
"When we receive some kind of formal action, we will look at it, we will understand it, and we will challenge it in court."
He said the Defense Secretary lied about the law.
Hegseth tweeted that any company with military contracts can't do business with Anthropic "at all."
Amodei: "That is not what the law said."
"The nature of the tweet was designed to create fear, uncertainty, and doubt."
Asked if this was an abuse of power, he paused.
Then said:
"This designation has never happened before with an American company."
"It was made very clear that this was retaliatory and punitive."
"I don't know what else to call it."
Asked if Anthropic could survive, he didn't hesitate.
"Not only survive it. We're gonna be fine."
Then the final question.
"If you had a moment with the President right now tonight, what would you say to him?"
"We are patriotic Americans."
"Everything we have done has been for the sake of this country."
"The red lines we have drawn, we drew because we believe that crossing those red lines is contrary to American values."
"Disagreeing with the government is the most American thing in the world."
"And we are patriots."
A CEO just went on national television and told the President of the United States:
You can blacklist us.
You can call us names.
You can threaten our business through tweets.
But we will not build machines that spy on Americans or kill without human hands.
@AnthropicAI did what you don’t do: have principles. What they got wrong was having the wrong principles. Agree with you that autonomous weapons are essential for national defense.
Tonight, we reached an agreement with the Department of War to deploy our models in their classified network.
In all of our interactions, the DoW displayed a deep respect for safety and a desire to partner to achieve the best possible outcome.
AI safety and wide distribution of benefits are the core of our mission. Two of our most important safety principles are prohibitions on domestic mass surveillance and human responsibility for the use of force, including for autonomous weapon systems. The DoW agrees with these principles, reflects them in law and policy, and we put them into our agreement.
We also will build technical safeguards to ensure our models behave as they should, which the DoW also wanted. We will deploy FDEs to help with our models and to ensure their safety, we will deploy on cloud networks only.
We are asking the DoW to offer these same terms to all AI companies, which in our opinion we think everyone should be willing to accept. We have expressed our strong desire to see things de-escalate away from legal and governmental actions and towards reasonable agreements.
We remain committed to serve all of humanity as best we can. The world is a complicated, messy, and sometimes dangerous place.
@AmericanAir I got rebooking via another route and they are delayed boarding because they are still
Replenishing stuff. This was a flight that arrive at the gate at 3:44 and it’s 8:09 now’”. I’m not looking forward to repeating today at LHR again!
Not your best day @AmericanAir - 2 delays out of AUS and when I land on a flight I got confirmed and was half hopeful to my right connection, I land and we are sitting waiting for a gate to park!
💰 Funding & Capital Signals
@AutonomizeAI raised a $28M Series A to advance its Agentic AI platform for health systems. Congrats @_ganeshp & team.
It’s Austin funding Austin with @ATXVenture & @CapitalFactory doubling down.
https://t.co/tZBr3bVrf8