makes.cents

just a data science nerd with too many AI subscriptions playing on prediction markets

6figs and counting

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

@JanFebJustin is it still profitable if you exclude those longshots or are they carrying the strat?

if they’re carrying the strat.. how confident are you that the mechanism of your edge is +EV there?

could you stomach sizing up if it were 2% ROI with high variance?

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

tests only work if there is TENSION between the implementation and some independent belief about what should be true

a failing test is supposed to make you stop and think “wait, did i break the thing?”

not “cool, let me update the universe until i’m right”

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

agent broke one of my strategies yesterday and the tests passed (of course)

not because the change was right. it misunderstood my intent, then updated the tests to agree with the misunderstanding

congrats on burning tokens and giving me a headache lil guy

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj @peanut_bettor @spanky for which sports or props is there the greatest advantage to manual traders vs automated models?

eg., what are situations where it's +EV to act on intuition, understand niche edge cases, and utilize deep ball knowledge?

must be practical to trade: occurs regularly w/ dece vol

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

@itschucksauce thank god they weren't hiring a chicken tender advertising expert

but fr, what strikes did this backfire for you on

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

volume is a trap if the edge is fuzzy

a tiny clean edge can become a strategy. a noisy edge waits until you size it up, then asks if you can stomach the variance

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

@PredMTrader real question. do you think this was priced in? feels the same as when Trump talked for like, 3 min in China and everything went NO.

do you find it's possible to get in front of the market when it misses these second-order considerations, or is this just happy hindsight bias?

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

@surferpredicts I dig it

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

@PredMTrader NO love

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

@Landof10kBets @Kalshi found the vol and post manually?

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

as a teenager of the 2000s who torrented their fair share of media... I took this meme personally

yes. I will vibecode a house.

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj @BigBuckHunterrr @Novig Say you lose access to all your AI subscriptions tomorrow.

What aspects of your work would you consider simply impossible now without AI access? How would it affect Novig?

And how much would you pay to get your subscription back?

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

@sports4casuals wrong direction ???

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

@JonnySharps Big flow. how’d it go?

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

@boazweinstein Even better than courtsiding: courtpredicting. Calculate if the ball will land out of bounds based on the trajectory and speed off the racket. You'll make millions I promise

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

@PredMTrader Fill it, limit sell order at the fair value, hope to collect your +EV in the kerfuffle as the game starts, and ✌️ outta there before you get adverse selected lol

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

@sbinfluencer here for the show 🍿

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

@KalshiSquare how do you think about taking vs making here

[makes.cents @_makes_cents_]

@PolyDekos must be some dumb counterparties