Patrick Regan

working on something
DraftKings alum

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

@JewishMcCaffrey Patrick Mahomelessman's Josh Allen

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

@TintinPoker great stuff

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

@devahaz I think the good Dr Gator is also experiencing the standard effects of aging.

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

Red dotted line represents midpoints of moneyline markets during dead-ball gaps longer than 50 s, used as a reference.

Second dip for "ordinary snaps" series after 40s comes from situations where a play is immediately followed by another play. This dip isn't as extreme as the first because not all plays are followed immediately by another - many are followed by a timeout, end of quarter, etc.

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

The majority of prediction market volume on NFL games is traded during live games. If you are trading live, please realize your counterparties utilize ultra low latency data feeds you can't afford.

To illustrate, here's a chart with data from 30 NFL games. Whenever the ball is snapped, liquidity at the best bid and best ask on all markets disappears immediately. It returns about 20 s later when the outcome of the play is known. At that point, you probably still haven't seen the snap on TV and the play hasn't hit most play-by-play data feeds.

Nothing nefarious here - this is what market makers should do given their incentives. Everyone else just needs to realize the makers know what happens on the field as soon as it happens, and you don't.

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

@PhdDfs Commitment of the junior people conflicts with the incompetence at the top

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

@JewishMcCaffrey Yeah but it’s the Cowboys

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

@PlusEVAnalytics @MrHeinzight Thoughts on personalized odds?

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

@buccocapital Didn’t Michael Buble make a career by convincing Greatest Gen and Boomers with memory issues that he was young Frank Sinatra?

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

@PPRTyler

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

@cfargis Ordering on iOS app is the way you’d want it. Looks like they have it ordered alphabetically on web.

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

@PhdDfs Or does the prevalence of fantasy and betting raise awareness of injuries?

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

@goldenpants013 Pizzola and Elf on same tier. Diabolical.

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

Criticizing a fantasy analyst in week 2?
"Shut up, it's been one week. Sharks can still eat."

Praising a fantasy analyst in week 2?
"Hell yeah, sharks eating!!!"

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

@notJDaigle Talking about seeking variance in the summer: Haha fuck yeah!!! Yes!!

Experiencing variance during the season: Well this fucking sucks. What the fuck.

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

@PlusEVAnalytics Make them listen to any betting podcast

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

@DustinGouker @evenstevengg hold for a single week in a single state is too dependent on sport outcomes to infer anything about broader industry trends

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

@devahaz I think football offers a way for him to communicate Americanness to voters who might be wary of his ethnicity. "Oh he wants me to be able to afford football? Maybe he doesn't want to impose sharia after all."

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

“Someone please help us. Our competition has naked Sydney Sweeney and we spent all our money on Gilbert Arenas and Bill Belichik”

[Berm @thesamberman]

I'm hiring one person with a marketing skill nobody on our team has.

Acquire customers, get people talking about us, whatever moves the needle, just help us grow.

Six months to prove it works. FT role waiting if it does.

No application link. DM me - Tell me what you'd do and why it would work.

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

Here is data from BBM V.

[Patrick Regan @_pregan]

Got a lot of BBM entries advancing after week 1? Cool - most won't make it.
Entries in top 2 of their draft room after week 1 last year were more likely to advance than baseline though (28% vs 17%).
Hold off bragging until around week 7.
Start celebrating after week 12.
Data here is from BBM VI.