SJ

Lifelong Learner | SF

[SJ @_shaurya]

@sidhant @WIONews Could have prepped better with relevant examples when asked for it.

[SJ @_shaurya]

@AdityaRajKaul @sidhant Could have been more prepared with specifics.

[SJ @_shaurya]

@gabriel_horwitz Bregal Sagemount 😂

[SJ @_shaurya]

Is hormuz open? That’s the only question which should matter for the markets. Rest all is noise. Measure what matters. $SPY $QQQ $XLE

[SJ @_shaurya]

$SPY all time high 😂

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Since the start of the Iran war...
Sulfur: +67%
Jet Fuel: +66%
Urea: +51%
Diesel: +50%
Heating Oil: +40%
WTI Crude Oil: +37%
European Natural Gas: +34%
Gasoline: +32%
Fertilizer: +31%
Brent Crude Oil: +31%
Coal: +14%
Palm Oil: +10%
Iron Ore: +7%
Rice: +4%
S&P 500: +1%
$VIX: -8%

[SJ @_shaurya]

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for 6 weeks — the largest energy supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. 20M barrels/day used to flow through this 21-mile passage. Today ~11M bpd is offline, the global market is drawing down at 6M bpd, and bypass pipelines cover barely 25% of normal flow. But this isn't just a fuel story. Oil derivatives make plastics, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, and packaging — 60-70% of Asian naphtha transits Hormuz, petrochemical firms are declaring force majeure across Asia, and urea prices are up 50%. The Gulf supplies ~30% of globally traded fertilizers. This is a food and manufacturing crisis disguised as an energy crisis. Opening the strait doesn't fix it either — Qatar's Ras Laffan lost 2 LNG trains (17% capacity), needing turbines that have 2-4 year manufacturing backlogs. Bahrain's $7B refinery, completed December 2025, was struck twice. Rystad estimates $25B+ in repairs. The bottleneck isn't money, it's equipment that doesn't exist yet. Goldman now sees Brent averaging $85 in 2026 and $80 in 2027 — both above the pre-war $64-65 baseline — with $115-120 if the ceasefire fails. The Fed is trapped: oil up 57% YoY, rate cuts pushed to September at earliest, recession probability raised to 30%. And yet — the S&P 500 just hit its highest close since before the war. VIX sits at 19. Dated Brent (real physical barrels) hit $144 while the deferred futures curve prices $74. That's a $70 gap between what traders expect and what's actually happening on the water. UBS warns escalation "is not at all priced in." The market is trading as if diplomacy will fix physics. It won't. Position accordingly: energy (XLE, LNG), agriculture/fertilizer (NTR, CF, MOS, DBA), gold and hard assets (GLD, GDX), and reduce exposure to rate-sensitive growth and long-duration bonds. The infrastructure damage has created a multi-year supply deficit that no ceasefire announcement erases overnight.

$GLD $LNG

[SJ @_shaurya]

@vinodsrinivasan Key question is if gold price can survive a multi polar world where shaky countries sell to defend currency or other reasons. Gold not as bulletproof as one thought.

[SJ @_shaurya]

With the ceasefire in place a whoosh-don seems unlikely. Are we back to the original hypothesis: ongoing debasement, weak dollar, and yuan-gold axis? In general I was surprised at how well the 10-year behaved. But if the 10-demands are accepted, and multipolarity is hastened that should show up in the bond market, but never know and can’t explain it.

[SJ @_shaurya]

@ctindale Nice article. The problem is that most people need to buy paper gold. Buying, ensuring authenticity, storing and securing gold for a world where fiat loses its value is not for everyone - evn those who believe in the thesis.

[SJ @_shaurya]

@_10delta_ The China-AI-compute angle is the weakest link because it confuses oil dependency with electricity dependency.

[SJ @_shaurya]

@LBGamestips Bigger betrayal was by god to your face 🥲

[SJ @_shaurya]

@GeminiApp @GoogleAI Product tip: Gemini has a fairly boring UI when it thinks - can you make it more interesting? Claude and ChatGPT have interesting one. I also like how Chat GPT uses a little vibration when it starts to return results. Small things - create a unique experience.

[SJ @_shaurya]

Have to hand it to @SergioGor. Man single handidly supercharged the moribund US-India relationship.

[SJ @_shaurya]

@PeterSchiff Long gold short miners.

Simple hedge!

[SJ @_shaurya]

China is investing, US investors are trading.

Commodities need a longer term investment mindset. Build wealth vs a quick buck. Few understand.

[Chris Marcus @ArcadiaEconomic]

As stunning as it is to see what's happening to the #SILVER price in New York, the silver price in Shanghai has just surged to $133!

[Chris Marcus @ArcadiaEconomic]

As stunning as it is to see what's happening to the #SILVER price in New York, the silver price in Shanghai has just surged to $133!

[SJ @_shaurya]

@ArcadiaEconomic China is investing, US is trading.

Commodities need a longer term investment mindset. Build wealth vs a quick buck.

[SJ @_shaurya]

@riteshmjn Ritesh: are you calling M&As meaningless capex?