If your portfolio is red right now, stay patient. The average retail portfolio is down 12.7% YTD.
Remember this:
1. Markets will always make a new all-time high in the future
2. Mid-term years are the weakest years, this is the time to position yourself and BUY while stocks are going on sale
3. I've been down -50% on stocks in 2022, 2020, and 2018 for 10+ months, nearly everything recovered
Don't lose sight of your goal.
This is the part most people can't handle and give up.
All of a sudden I am no longer seeing discourses of becoming a full time trader or people sharing their monthly gains.
So let me share some quick thoughts before the weekend starts and hopefully it helps someone see the market from a realistic perspective from someone who has successfully been doing this transparently for years🧵
- The very 1st thing you need to realize is that your weekly, or monthly, 3 month, or even YTD gains are the most pointless things to show off. Even your next door neighbor will at some point have a great couple weeks in the market. I believe this platform has become too comfortable giving the “elite trader” label to just about anyone nowadays. Only thing that matters is who is growing a portfolio in their all-time timeframe
Just like any major sport, in order to be in the conversations of the GOATs, you need to be able to perform at an elite level every single season. There’s a reason why longevity and consistency regardless of conditions matters so much
- Secondly, your portfolio is no different than an ETF — a collection of stocks. If your portfolio’s price action looks like a chart of a stock that you would never invest into, then this needs to be changed asap. You must be able to comfortably be able to buy into your own ETF without the fear of getting liquidated overnight
- Lastly, if statistically the odds of being successful in the market are against majority of people, then you must understand that listening to majority of people is not going to help you. Be comfortable with becoming uncomfortable. Just because everyone is talking about one stock and not yours, does not make your stock any worse. Engagement on a ticker does not equate to higher success on that ticker in the future
This is all part of the game. In order to hit home runs, you need to maintain consistency and not get liquidated before the next home run opportunity comes
Get comfortable with the reality of the market and it’ll automatically make your decision making skills far superior than most.
OIL is about to form another macro lower high after bouncing from the $65–70 area highlighted a few months ago. This aligns with my view that a recession was never an option during a midterm year, therefore with inflation no longer proving to be sticky, I expect oil to continue trending lower into November potentially reaching the 45–50 range this time
One thing I don’t think enough people are talking about….
The timing of the high beta selloff almost perfectly matches the SpaceX drawdown.
First, the largest IPO in history likely pulled tens of billions of dollars out of other growth names as investors scrambled for exposure.
Then SpaceX reversed sharply, taking risk appetite with it. The biggest momentum trade on the market rolled over, and it creates forced selling across the entire high beta complex.
I don’t think SpaceX caused this correction by itself. Valuations, positioning and macro all mattered.
But I do think it accelerated the move.
If that’s true, the opposite can happen next. Once forced selling exhausts itself and liquidity normalizes, the highest beta names will most likely be the first to recover as money rotates back into growth.
Anyway, all of this feels more like a liquidity and positioning reset….its not the end of the AI bull market.
Final thought: putting Spacex in the Nasdaq 100 this early was super careless. Whose bright idea was that?!
The last few weeks have been brutal for holders of $VELO, $RKLB, $ASTS and much of the space / advanced manufacturing trade following the $SPCX IPO.
We got a strong run... and then watched most of it unwind right back to where it started.
I've seen this movie before.
When I first bought $WULF around $2-3, it eventually dropped to ~$1.33. It felt awful at the time. Looking back, it was just noise. The thesis never changed, only sentiment did.
That's the reality with emerging companies.
You'll get:
• Short reports
• Hit pieces
• Fear campaigns
• Volatility
• People making money on the way down just as others do on the way up
If your investment thesis is built on daily price action, you'll probably lose conviction at the worst possible time.
Personally, I still think $VELO is in the very early innings. If execution continues, I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock revisit the $20–25 range very soon before the market starts looking ahead to what's next.
The bigger question isn't today's price. It's what the expanded manufacturing capacity eventually enables.
More production? New mission-critical customers?
Additional aerospace & defense programs? Greater exposure to the rapidly growing space economy?
Time will tell, but that's where I'm focused.
2026 isn't the destination, it's the turnaround year where the foundation gets built.
Don't let short-term noise rewrite the reasons you invested. If your thesis is the same today as it was when the stock traded $25–30 a few weeks ago, ask yourself what's actually changed besides the chart.
$VELO $RKLB $ASTS $SPCX $PL $RDW $LUNR $BKSY #SpaceEconomy #AdditiveManufacturing #3DPrinting #Investing #SpaceTech
Today is a good day to ask yourself:
At today's market cap, with the growth the business is delivering, is this company actually expensive... or is it becoming a bargain?
Start by looking at revenue guidance for FY2026. Then look at FY2027 and beyond.
Then zoom out.
Look at the industry's growth, rising defense budgets, increasing government and private investment, accelerating launch cadence, satellite demand, AI infrastructure moving to orbit, national security priorities, and the commercialization of space.
Markets often price today's fear while missing tomorrow's opportunity.
Think in years, not days.
@SVBriskmanager My man u get it. Huge insider ownership as well. We reclaimed yearly open which is a good sign, now we need a monthly close above $33, and we’re off for a clean 10x ride 🚀😉
I believe you can make everything go parabolic in life. It’s just a matter of taking care of the small gains.
Those gains seem to be negligible in the beginning but if you master the art of small gains, you will soon go parabolic.
This is the Kaizen philosophy, make sure you improve yourself with 1% everyday. It seems small but if you do this you’ll be x38 times better at the end of the year, x1.444 at the end of year 2. You see the parabolic curve.
My learning curve in investment started 10 years ago. I invested in low beta companies with paper money. I had no money available to invest with my own money but wanted to be prepared when that day comes.
I moved from low beta stocks, to dividend stocks, to value stocks, to high growth stocks at the moment. From a paper trader in low beta stocks to the second best investor (behind a certain Serenity) on the platform according to @buzzberg_ai.
You should try to implement this learning curve in everything you do. Don’t chase the big wins but make the small ones consistent.
Is it really this easy?
Off course not, it takes a lot of discipline and focus.
As I said, your gains will seem negligible. You will have to take small calculated risksk to make sure you keep those daily gains.
Let me give you kickboxing as an example. You are kicking the opponents thigh 1 time, 2 times, 3 times,… every kick hurts the opponent but with every kick you have to take a calculated risk not to expose yourself.
Depending on your opponent it can take up to 20 kicks before you start to notice some instability. This can frustrate you, you go for a knock-out, expose yourself and get countered. All those gains for nothing.
It’s the same with investing, be disciplined. Control your FOMO, you don’t want to lose everything you have build because you take uncalculated risks.
It seems easy to control this but I’ve played League for a while and here I learned that it’s in the human nature to f* up your smaller gains. Every ones in a while you will throw your gains away and feel frustrated.
The only thing you can do here is learn from it and move on. There is no future in the past, only lessons to be learned.
First thing you should do is start. Start today with your parabolic run rather than tomorrow. You’ll be a 38x better human in a year from now.
I have a hard time believing the market is topping soon, as most engagement farmers have been predicting for months, especially since $IWM just had its highest weekly close ever.
Apart from that, market symmetry implies that after breaking the Gann arc, it likely wants to move to the next level, which in that case would be the horizontal around $350
The Rotation Has Started
The $IWM / $MAGS ratio — Russell 2000 small caps measured against the Mag 7 ETF — broke through 4.550 this week on a multi-month rounding base.
The pattern is clean: lower lows through 2024 into mid-2025, then a sequence of higher lows, then a base, then the breakout.
This is the technical evidence behind the "broad-based buying" headline. Capital is being put to work outside the Mag 7. Leadership is expanding. The narrowness that defined most of 2024 and the first half of 2025 is no longer the story.
The honest counterweight: the 14-period RSI on the ratio is at 79.43. That is stretched. A pause or a pullback in the ratio is reasonable here. The structural read is the breakout; the tactical read is the overbought condition. Do not confuse the two — small caps can consolidate against the Mag 7 for a few weeks and the broader rotation thesis remains fully intact.