Jeremy Miller

Software engineer working on the intersection of sports, economics, and technology.

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

@TJStats @GermanYinzer99 @IMukima Even if Nutting wasn’t terrible and spent what he could, they couldn’t compete with spending like dodgers and Yankees do. So a floor with no cap still has this hole. So how would you address that ?

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

That ultimately led him to an 8% increase over the deal that Griffin signed.

Read more here: https://t.co/P658n3pZoU

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

Yesterday Kevin McGonigle got an 8-year/$150 million contract extension from the Detroit Tigers.
He breaks the records for highest rookie guarantee by $10 million over Griffin’s record set just last week.

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

By making the Opening Day roster right out of Spring Training, he earned leverage over his contract negotiations that Griffin didn't have. He was going to earn a full year of service time this year.

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

@MLB @Pirates Been wanting one of these every since they were teased!

[MLB @MLB]

Pirates fans, do you want this treasure? 🪎

We are giving away a new Pirates City Connect jersey just for you! Repost and reply for your chance to win!

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

Read about the details of ‘Early Lockdown’ here as teams like the Pirates try to secure their young stars early and ‘Dodger-Proof’ them in the process. https://t.co/wMO2jKsrBy

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

Konnor Griffin officially signs 9 year/$140 Million deal with the Pirates. It’s a record for both largest contract in Pirates team history and biggest guarantee ever given to an MLB rookie.

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

They wanted to keep Griffin’s eligibility for the bonus first round pick that the PPI program offers only to players who debuted without an existing extension.

If Griffin wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top 3 of MVP voting in the next 3 years, he’ll earn the Pirates a bonus first round pick.

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

@NoahW_25 @HenryDavisMVP And then the Pirates are forced to play service time games and get critized for that as well. "Can you believe the league is going to have to wait another year for Griffin to be a free agent." Is what they are already thinking. They were willing him to make the Opening Day roster

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

@Cardinals I just deconstructed the math behind why teams like the Cardinals are choosing 'Systemic Aggression' while others play the accounting game. Read the full blueprint here:

https://t.co/bv3jgKJhQX

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

@Cardinals Promoting JJ Wetherholt for Opening Day keeps the PPI Rookie of the Year draft pick bonus on the table. It’s the aggressive side of the #OpeningDayCalculus: When the 2026 breakout is worth more to the franchise than the 2032 service year. Its the era of the Opening Day Phenom.

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

@MLBNetwork I just deconstructed the math behind this PPI logic and why the Pirates are choosing the spreadsheet over the stadium. Full 'Opening Day Calculus' breakdown here:
https://t.co/bv3jgKJhQX

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

Interesting contrast in philosophy today. While the Tigers (McGonigle) and Cardinals (Wetherholt) are hunting for the PPI draft pick bonus, the Pirates are opting for 'Asset Hoarding.'

It would have taken a herculean performance (or a contract extension) to break the Pirates' financial life cycle.

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

@tigers I’ve mapped out the full 'Opening Day Calculus' and the data behind moves like this in my latest ROOTS briefing. You can read the technical deep-dive here:

https://t.co/bv3jgKJhQX

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

@tigers The Tigers are going all in on the final year of the Skubal Era.

Moving McGonigle straight from AA to Detroit is a clear signal: The ROI on a 2026 playoff run + a potential PPI draft pick outweighs a 2032 service year. This is the #OpeningDayCalculus in its most aggressive form

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

A prospect’s debut is no longer about "readiness"—it’s about the team’s Financial Life Cycle.

Large Market: Compete. Mid-Market: Gamble. Small Market: Manipulate.
Full breakdown of the math behind the roster moves: https://t.co/bv3jgKJhQX

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

The #OpeningDayCalculus is live and the league just split into three distinct strategic camps.

While the Pirates chose control with Konnor Griffin, the Tigers (McGonigle), Cardinals (Wetherholt), and Phillies (Painter) just opted for Systemic Aggression.

Why? It’s all in the blueprint. 🧵👇

[Jeremy Miller @aHiddenJEM]

Then there’s Pittsburgh.

By holding Konnor Griffin for at least 16 days, they potentially save $30M+ in future arbitration. But they also lose the chance at a bonus 1st-round pick.

This isn't a baseball decision. It’s a spreadsheet decision.