My favorite @elonmusk quote that I often send friends:
Do not fear losing. “You will lose,” Musk says. “It will hurt the first fifty times. When you get used to losing, you will play each game with less emotion.” You will be more fearless, take more risks.
I’ve wanted to tell this story for years. Never had the courage. Here it is.
I turned a presale allocation into $80 million on $OHM. Today I have $500k left.
In 2021, I got a presale allocation in OlympusDAO, then aped heavily myself on top of it. The allocation got me in the door. My own conviction made me go all in. Staked everything. Watched it compound daily. By the peak I was sitting on $80 million.
Then I started spending like the money printed itself.
Private jets to Dubai because commercial felt beneath me. $40k weekends in Monaco. A garage full of cars I drove twice. Watches I never wore. I tipped $5k at dinners just to feel something. Every purchase was a flex for an audience that didn’t care.
The casino was worse. High limit rooms in Vegas and Macau. I’d lose $2 million in a night and laugh it off because the portfolio would make it back by morning. Until it didn’t.
When $OHM unwound, I didn’t sell. I doubled down. Then I leveraged. 5x, then 10x, trying to trade my way back to the peak. Every liquidation felt like a personal insult, so I’d open a bigger position. I wasn’t trading anymore. I was gambling with a different interface.
$80 million became $20 million. $20 million became $4 million. I told myself $4 million was still life changing money. Then I levered that too.
$500k. That’s what’s left.
Here’s what I learned the expensive way:
Unrealized gains are not money. I never had $80 million. I had a number on a screen and the arrogance to believe it was permanent.
Getting in early is a gift. I treated it like a skill. The allocation didn’t make me a genius. It made me lucky. I confused the two for three years.
Lifestyle inflation is a leak you don’t notice until the ship is underwater. The jets and cars didn’t kill me. The identity did. I became someone who needed to spend to feel like a winner.
Leverage doesn’t get you back to even. It gets you to zero faster. Revenge trading is just grief with a chart open.
Nobody at the table in Monaco remembers my name.
I’ve carried this story alone for years. Too embarrassed to say it out loud. But $500k is more than most people will ever hold at once, and I’m done pretending the past didn’t happen. The next decade is about building slow and keeping what I make.
If you’re up big right now, screenshot this. You’ll need it.
One of the most underrated success factors is the ability to detach from your family.
People in their 20s who still constantly need validation from their parents tend to achieve less.
I remember during the 2018 bear market when crypto went to goblin town, my mom told my brother: “it was too good to be true.”
No bad intent here but deep down, I think she was relieved it was over so we could go back to a normal safe life.
As an individual, you have to emancipate yourself from your parents’ judgment.
I'm not saying ignore them or be ungrateful.
But your family is one of the biggest barriers to taking risks.
If you’re in your 20s and can’t make decisions without their approval, something is off.
Financial success is doable when you realize people around you can have the best intentions and still give the worst advice.
If you don’t assert your identity early, you’ll just end up doing what everyone else does.
LLM Knowledge Bases
Something I'm finding very useful recently: using LLMs to build personal knowledge bases for various topics of research interest. In this way, a large fraction of my recent token throughput is going less into manipulating code, and more into manipulating knowledge (stored as markdown and images). The latest LLMs are quite good at it. So:
Data ingest:
I index source documents (articles, papers, repos, datasets, images, etc.) into a raw/ directory, then I use an LLM to incrementally "compile" a wiki, which is just a collection of .md files in a directory structure. The wiki includes summaries of all the data in raw/, backlinks, and then it categorizes data into concepts, writes articles for them, and links them all. To convert web articles into .md files I like to use the Obsidian Web Clipper extension, and then I also use a hotkey to download all the related images to local so that my LLM can easily reference them.
IDE:
I use Obsidian as the IDE "frontend" where I can view the raw data, the the compiled wiki, and the derived visualizations. Important to note that the LLM writes and maintains all of the data of the wiki, I rarely touch it directly. I've played with a few Obsidian plugins to render and view data in other ways (e.g. Marp for slides).
Q&A:
Where things get interesting is that once your wiki is big enough (e.g. mine on some recent research is ~100 articles and ~400K words), you can ask your LLM agent all kinds of complex questions against the wiki, and it will go off, research the answers, etc. I thought I had to reach for fancy RAG, but the LLM has been pretty good about auto-maintaining index files and brief summaries of all the documents and it reads all the important related data fairly easily at this ~small scale.
Output:
Instead of getting answers in text/terminal, I like to have it render markdown files for me, or slide shows (Marp format), or matplotlib images, all of which I then view again in Obsidian. You can imagine many other visual output formats depending on the query. Often, I end up "filing" the outputs back into the wiki to enhance it for further queries. So my own explorations and queries always "add up" in the knowledge base.
Linting:
I've run some LLM "health checks" over the wiki to e.g. find inconsistent data, impute missing data (with web searchers), find interesting connections for new article candidates, etc., to incrementally clean up the wiki and enhance its overall data integrity. The LLMs are quite good at suggesting further questions to ask and look into.
Extra tools:
I find myself developing additional tools to process the data, e.g. I vibe coded a small and naive search engine over the wiki, which I both use directly (in a web ui), but more often I want to hand it off to an LLM via CLI as a tool for larger queries.
Further explorations:
As the repo grows, the natural desire is to also think about synthetic data generation + finetuning to have your LLM "know" the data in its weights instead of just context windows.
TLDR: raw data from a given number of sources is collected, then compiled by an LLM into a .md wiki, then operated on by various CLIs by the LLM to do Q&A and to incrementally enhance the wiki, and all of it viewable in Obsidian. You rarely ever write or edit the wiki manually, it's the domain of the LLM. I think there is room here for an incredible new product instead of a hacky collection of scripts.
- Drafted a blog post
- Used an LLM to meticulously improve the argument over 4 hours.
- Wow, feeling great, it’s so convincing!
- Fun idea let’s ask it to argue the opposite.
- LLM demolishes the entire argument and convinces me that the opposite is in fact true.
- lol
The LLMs may elicit an opinion when asked but are extremely competent in arguing almost any direction. This is actually super useful as a tool for forming your own opinions, just make sure to ask different directions and be careful with the sycophancy.
People fantasize about hitting the freedom money and then disappearing to live life, but the ones who would actually have disappeared to live life will almost never make it. Why?
Because you don’t wake up one day with 8 figs because you “balanced work and life” perfectly. You get there because you’re a little broken in the head and actually like the game more than the prize. In the same way, bodybuilders don’t quit the gym the day they look shredded.
People with real money all still work in some form. Investing, building, trading, whatever.
When I talk to friends with safe office jobs, they’ll say something like: “If I were pulling what you make, I’d just be on holiday all year.” That’s exactly why they never get there. The second money appears in their head, they’re already planning how to burn it on vacations and luxury items, and end up right back where they started.
It feels a bit controversial to say this, especially from me, Route2FI lol, as you know what the initials stand for, but yeah, I used to think the same way: dreaming of financial independence so I could basically do nothing. Looking back, the problem wasn’t that I hated work. It was that I hadn’t chosen my work. Once you find something you think is fun and you feel good at, you don’t fantasize about quitting. You just want to keep playing.
Someone said this: “once your kids no longer depend on you for food and survival you are left with the relationship that you cultivated or lack thereof.” I think it makes a lot of sense