Abbas Aly @abbasgaly - Twitter Profile

4 months ago

Day 2: Israel decimales Iranian Installations - Iran Retaliates Unprecedentedly Overnight Israel and the US have been relentlessly bombing Iranian territory on the second day of the war, launching strikes primarily from Iraqi and Saudi airspace. Approximately 1,000 targets have been hit in Iran, including air bases and bunkers. The Iranian navy was also targeted, with 3 to 4 warships sunk. However, it's worth noting that only one of these vessels was modern; the others date back to the 1960s. The hunt for Iranian missile launchers continues, with Israel striking several mobile launchers and anti-aircraft units daily. This is an extremely arduous task, as estimates from The Military Balance suggest Iran may possess up to 500 mobile launchers and hundreds of SHORAD systems. On this second day, Iran decided to strike five bases/airports being used by US-Israel forces all at once. The Saudi Prince Sultan Air Base was hit by multiple ballistic missiles, with several reports of smoke rising. Similarly, Iraq's Ain Al-Asad base was targeted. But nothing compared to the intensity of the attacks on Erbil Air Base in northern Iraq and Ben Gurion Airport, which came under several ballistic missiles overnight. And do you know what the biggest problem is? Iranian missiles are slipping through Israeli and American air defenses like a hot knife through butter. Yesterday and today, I've shown videos where launchers fire up to 9 (or more) interceptors in attempts to down a single Iranian missile, often with little success. Iran's retaliation against US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE continued on the second day, mainly using drones. As I mentioned yesterday, Iran has proven that the war is only just beginning. It targeted Israeli cities with modern missiles that disperse submunitions during reentry, significantly expanding the affected areas. These missiles had never been used before in combat, showing that Iran is now deploying its most advanced systems, which are also far more resilient to interceptors. At the current rate, interceptors will run out soon, and panic will grip both Israeli and American leadership. Both sides are failing in their primary objective: significantly reducing Iran's launch capacity, which remains high, with roughly 450 missiles and 850 drones ready in just two days. If this pace holds, defensive munitions won't last more than 4-5 days. Based on what we've observed, Iran launches 200-220 missiles per day, while the coalition expends no fewer than 700-1,000 interceptors (or even more), with very limited success. In the best-case scenario, this gives about 5 days of defensive ammo left; in the realistic (worst-case) scenario I've estimated from the interceptions I've seen, it's only 4 days. This puts enormous pressure on the leaders of both countries to seek a ceasefire. I believe that if Iran refuses a ceasefire, both Israel and the US will push for Gulf countries to enter the war, aiming to bolster defenses and deter further Iranian actions. The entry of these countries would be paramount for the US and Israel due to their air support and, especially, their naval power. These Gulf nations possess approximately 400 vessels, including frigates, corvettes, and patrol boats. But until that happens, the war boils down to the same question: What runs out first, Iran's missile launch capability or the coalition's interceptors?

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11 months ago

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