Abby

Former PE research analyst
Semis AI infra power & whatever breaks next
I probably have too many tabs open😮‍💨

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

Anthropic filed the IPO.

What I care about most is operating cash flow turning positive to $3.929B in the first half.

Weve been asking whether AI applications can actually pay back the infrastructure spend. This filing gives part of the answer.

First half 2026 revenue $16.286B. Same period last year $1.163B. Up about 1,300%, roughly 14x.

Operating cash flow went from a $1.513B outflow to a $3.929B inflow.

That doesnt mean the financing problem is solved. The company explained part of the cash flow improvement came from payment timing. Customers paid first, supplier bills came later. First half still had about $693M operating loss. Future compute spend isnt going away.

The tension I watch is customers pay as they use. Anthropic still has to lock multi-year compute ahead of time.

Commercialization is speeding up. Revenue and cash collection still have to keep up with the purchase commitments. A successful IPO can add funding flexibility.

This matters for the $IREN I hold. Earlier media reports said the two signed a multi-year cloud service agreement. If that gets confirmed, Anthropic running better helps market confidence in the customers ability to pay.

Anthropic is also pushing direct chip leasing with dedicated buildings to try to lower long-term cost. Independent cloud names still have a shot at catching some of the demand.

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

Bought at $95, then added again at $64.73.

Everyone is saying the $INTC CEO is buying the dip. Checked the SEC filing. Its real.

Lip-Bu Tan added 150k shares through a family trust at an average of $64.73. In August he bought about $10M at $95. A few months later the stock dropped hard and he put in another nearly $10M.

I think that shows management still has confidence in the long-term turnaround.

Intels issues are still foundry losses, server CPU competition, and capex pressure. If those get solved, the stock can look better. At least for now theres a confidence boost.

Look at that. The chairman is helping hold the floor for us.

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

@_BaRupOn ya own power is becoming the real moat in texas

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

If Texas keeps tightening data center approvals, clouds that rely heavily on the ERCOT grid could see slower expansion. Texas has already paused new large data center energizations pending a grid audit.

That could actually be positive for $NBIS, which has no Texas sites.

Nebius' layout is more spread out.

Missouri — Independence GW-scale AI factory (under construction)
Pennsylvania — Highridge AI factory (planned)
Alabama — Birmingham AI infrastructure
New Jersey — Vineland data center
Finland — Mäntsälä and Lappeenranta
France — Paris and Béthune
UK & Iceland — additional AI cloud capacity

I think a new variable in AI compute competition is location and power approvals. If competitor projects get delayed, NBIS capacity that is already live outside ERCOT can become more valuable. Short term, NBIS looks decent imo.

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

This $MSFT move is an indirect positive for $IREN.

Anthropic disclosed at least $44.9B in long-term compute purchase commitments to Azure. IREN already has the $9.7B Microsoft contract. Stronger Azure demand helps market confidence that the contract gets delivered. IREN still needs to finish the remaining 150MW.

On the other side, Texas ERCOT tightening data center interconnection approvals could raise the value of deliverable compute in other regions. $NBIS medium-term AI cloud contracts run about $20M–$25M per MW.

If Texas expansion slows, compute in other places might still sell at higher prices.

I still think the conviction on this is relatively high.

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

One more day until $IREN reports. I'm actually a bit worried.

Last quarter AI Cloud revenue was only $70.5M. Contracted ARR for 2026 capacity is already at $4B, but only about $1B is operating and actual revenue still takes time to show up. What worries me is Texas power policy. Sweetwater 1 substation is energized, but later expansion still faces uncertainty from the new large-load rules and ERCOT's pause on new data center energizations while its audit runs (due Dec 10). What I worry about most is AI revenue recognition staying slow this quarter while 2027 delivery expectations get cut. That could hit valuation more than an EPS miss.

On the other side, if the remaining 150MW for Microsoft delivers on schedule and the Sweetwater timeline stays the same, even weak short-term numbers wouldn't make me easily change the long-term view.

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

Look at $IREN's data center layout.

🇺🇸 Texas Childress: 750MW, still expanding
🇺🇸 Texas Sweetwater: 2GW, SW1 energized, first 300MW under construction
🇺🇸 Oklahoma Kiowa: 1.6GW, in development
🇨🇦 Canada BC: 160MW, operating
🇦🇺 Australia Bundey: 800MW, planned
🇪🇸 Spain Badajoz: 300MW, planned

What I watch most is still Childress. The Microsoft contract covers about 200MW IT capacity. First 50MW already delivered. Later stages still moving. Sweetwater gives 2GW of potential expansion room. I think IREN already has the resource base for long-term expansion. Next is power-up speed and how much of that actually turns into revenue.

Yesterday IREN outperformed CRWV and NBIS. Today I'll keep watching how the buying holds. After midterms, the S&P has historically been up a week later in 14 of 19 cycles. If you already hold, manage that window.

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

Tech companies are still great.
But ...... in todays market, policy expectations may matter more than the tech story.

US midterms are done. Democrats took both chambers. Money is starting to look at clean energy again.

Three names worth watching.

$FSLR: US domestic solar manufacturing. Benefits from manufacturing incentive expectations.
$NEE: Wind, solar, and storage. Watch power demand and long-term contracts.
$RUN: Residential solar. Watch tax incentives and home install demand.

My take is green power could see a policy-driven valuation repair.
Demand should recover. Short-term setup looks higher conviction.

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

Comparing the data center layouts of $IREN and $NBIS, there's one clear difference.

IREN has Childress 750MW and Sweetwater 2GW in Texas. Together those two make up about 49% of its disclosed planned power capacity (incl. Australia & Spain). NBIS is spread across multiple US states and Europe.

If Texas tightens data center approvals further, IREN's potential exposure is larger.

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

AI long-term logic hasnt changed. The test for chip stocks may just be starting.

Goldman showed consensus expectations. Big cloud free cash flow turns negative in 2026, pressure peaks in 2027, and could turn positive again in 2028.

Look at $INTC. From the 90s down to around $60. Dropped about a third in a few trading days.
Long-term semiconductor opportunity is still fine.
The market is just starting to care more about cash flow and valuation.
Same for the main cloud names we track.
This could turn into a longer fight. Less leverage, protect capital, then wait for the industry returns to show up.
The process is tough though.

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

$MSFT: AAA issuer credit rating. Just issued $25B in bonds.
$IREN: Microsoft project financing got Fitch A rating.
$CRWV: Meta project financing got Moody's A3. Issuer rating is S&P B+ (positive outlook), Fitch BB-.
$NBIS: No comparable public credit rating yet.

Note that project A rating isnt the same as company-level A rating.

The AI arms race is pushing financing costs higher. Neoclouds may feel the pressure first. Midterm results matter here.
The five big clouds have already issued more than $200B in bonds in 2026. Bond spreads are starting to widen.

Difference between the big clouds and the new ones.
MSFT can finance off mature business cash flow and high credit ratings. IREN leans more on GPU collateral, long-term contracts, and project cash collections, while NBIS leans more on convertible notes. IREN GPU financing backed by the Microsoft contract is at 6%. Another financing hit 9%. Cost of capital is already diverging.

Who wins among neoclouds will come down to borrowing at lower cost and turning compute into cash flow faster. That part looks set.

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

Palantir isnt a small company anymore. Revenue growth is still accelerating.

Revenue nearly doubled. Adjusted operating margin still hit 62%. US commercial revenue passed US government revenue for the first time. Net revenue retention hit 165%.

Palantir has named $NBIS as its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner. Plans to plug its compute and inference services into the enterprise platform. The faster $PLTR commercial customers expand, the more chance NBIS has at new GPU usage and cloud revenue. Key is conversion rate on the partnership.

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

@anaportfolio cash lag is real 🎯
but q3 rev hit $1.236b, +138% yoy, while customer deposits went from $78m to $661m.
looks more like inventory being built ahead of a growing backlog than demand falling off imo.

sources:
bloom q3 release: https://t.co/F9yTzuJLq7

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

Barclays upgraded Bloom Energy to Overweight today.
$BE has been strong.
I think theres an industry shift worth watching behind it.

On Oct 22 BE reported Q3 revenue up 138.1% year over year. Put that next to Texas power policy and it gets more interesting. Texas SB 6 took effect on June 20, 2025. It puts tighter grid interconnection and load management requirements on large power users, with a 75MW threshold.

For $IREN that means even with power resources, interconnection cost and delivery timing still matter. For BE this can open new commercial opportunities. Price targets got cut, so short-term valuation and execution risk are still there.
BEs on-site fuel cell generation can help data centers depend less on traditional grid interconnection timelines and get stable power faster.

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

Goldman put out a risk scenario. Democrats could increase scrutiny on AI development and data centers, and push to remove some tax incentives.

I went and checked $IREN''s 10-K and the related policy.

On taxes, theres already a US proposal looking at removing the extra depreciation benefit for data centers. For IREN, GPUs and servers take a lot of capital. If accelerated tax deductions go away, early cash tax payments go up and project payback can stretch longer.

Assume a 100MW project does $2B annual revenue. A 1% revenue tax is $20M a year. 2% is $40M. These rates are just my sensitivity assumptions for now.
US tax policy doesnt directly apply to IRENs projects in Canada, Australia, and Spain.

IREN disclosed in the FY2026 10-K that power cost is about 27% of full-year revenue.
A 10% rise in overall power cost would cut pre-tax profit by about $19.1M.
For future AI cloud projects, assume 100MW IT capacity, PUE of 1.2, running full load all year.
Every 1 cent per kWh increase in power price adds about $10.51M in annual cost. That can add real burden.

Texas has already added requirements for large power interconnection projects of 75MW and above. On a 50MW IT project at $20M revenue per MW per year, a three-month delay in acceptance and billing means about $250M of planned revenue in that period cant be recognized on time.

Actual impact still depends on grace periods and delay terms.

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

@IADataFinance gpus are easy. power isn't

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

One set of numbers is worth watching.

Semiconductor index is up 44% this year. Tech hardware is up 36%.
Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet earnings growth is about 27%. Their stocks are only up about 8% on average.

The companies spending to build AI infrastructure are lagging the companies selling the equipment.

I think theres a timing gap. $NVDA can recognize GPU revenue relatively fast.
The big clouds pay for the purchase and build costs, then still have to finish data center power-up, GPU deployment, and customer onboarding before revenue starts coming in.

We talked about AWS and Google Cloud yesterday. Theyre already turning demand into cloud revenue. The big clouds have customer and capital advantages. That makes the challenge more direct for the neoclouds I follow long term.

$IREN has to turn power and planned capacity into actual billing MW.
$NBIS has to raise return per asset through GPU utilization, dynamic pricing, and cloud platform services.
$CRWV has about $104B backlog, but still faces interest, depreciation, and ongoing expansion costs.

When I look at valuation I separate the big clouds from the neoclouds.
For neoclouds I watch revenue per MW, financing cost, and lifetime cash return per GPU.

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

@Auroraxog yep, the refi rate is the real tell

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

The biggest contradiction in Neocloud today

Order backlogs keep growing, while credit markets worry about debt repayment.

——$CRWV: Q2 backlog reached ~$104B, with a 59% adjusted EBITDA margin.

Yet in the same quarter, net interest expense hit $640M and net losses reached $626M.

By mid-October, CoreWeave's five-year CDS spread had climbed above 1,100 basis points.

——$NBIS: Its AI Cloud adjusted EBITDA margin approached 50%.

Nebius is working to increase revenue per GPU through dynamic pricing, higher utilization, and managed inference services.

I like this approach.

The difference comes down to capital efficiency.

CoreWeave has built a massive backlog and financing structure. Now it needs to prove that cash flow can cover interest, debt maturities, and GPU replacements.Nebius is expanding its cloud platform, but it still needs to prove that software services and better utilization can deliver stronger returns on invested capital.

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

At the Berlin event $IREN said the Badajoz site in Spain has the civil works permit. The 300MW European project moved another step. First operations targeted for 2028.

I think European companies have demand for data localization and their own AI infrastructure. IREN plans to combine its own data centers, NVIDIA tech, and Mirantis software to offer AI cloud services.

That means IREN is expanding the business from North America into Europe.

The stock is already cheap. Confidence is right there.

[IREN @IREN_Ltd]

At #NVIDIAGTC Berlin, Gabriel Nebreda, CEO of IREN Spain, shared the latest on IREN’s campus in Badajoz, Spain: the project has been granted its civil works license, confirming it is developing according to plan with the support of the community and local institutions.

The campus anchors IREN’s build-out of sovereign AI in Europe. Hear more from IREN on the ground in Berlin.

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

@EdwardS54841649 waiting on the vote like

[Abby @Abbyxvx87]

$MRVL buying $LITE matters for the big clouds.

For Microsoft, AWS, and Google the deal has two sides. Joint development on DSP, lasers, and modules can lower power use, improve compatibility, and speed up AI cluster builds. Key parts sitting with one supplier can also weaken the clouds bargaining power.

So the big clouds may increase purchases and qualification with independent suppliers like $COHR to keep supply chain competition. Even if MRVL integrates well, it doesnt automatically squeeze every competitor.

$IREN has a roughly $9.7B five-year contract with Microsoft. Right now I care about actual delivery and when billing starts on the later stages. Optical network supply delays or cost changes only change my IREN valuation if they show up in project timing and cash flow.