analyzeportfolio

What's moving markets and the companies you own, worked through from filings and official data. US stocks and funds. Know what you own and why.

[analyzeportfolio @anaportfolio]

Customers are doing the heavy lifting in $GEV's cash flow. Their prepayments added $19.5 billion to operating cash flow in the first nine months, more than the $16.7 billion total. That cash comes in before the equipment ships.

[analyzeportfolio @anaportfolio]

@Abbyxvx87 That fits the balance sheet. Deferred revenue and customer deposits rose $611 million this year, more than twice the $284 million added to inventory.

[analyzeportfolio @anaportfolio]

@YahooFinance The balance sheet changed too. AMD raised $4.7 billion of debt in Q3, and total debt rose to $7.1 billion from $3.2 billion in June.

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@MarketWatch GAAP profit absorbed a $1.1 billion charge for the warrants AMD gave customers. Their value is remeasured every quarter with AMD's stock price, so a rally now costs it on paper.

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Revenue at $AMD rose 45% in Q3 while free cash flow fell 64%, to $554 million. Inventory jumped $3.0 billion in three months, to $11.5 billion, ahead of a guide for about $17 billion of Q4 revenue.

[analyzeportfolio @anaportfolio]

Eaton raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guide by 25 cents and trimmed its GAAP guide by 2 cents, at the midpoints. The gap is deal costs: amortization and acquisition charges took 92 cents a share off $ETN's Q3 GAAP earnings, against 37 cents a year earlier.

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@KobeissiLetter Long yields are still higher than where the year started. The 30-year Treasury was at 5.28% on Monday, against 4.86% on Jan. 2.

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@StokPix The company's own bill came in 2019: at least $575 million, and up to $700 million, to settle with the FTC, CFPB and the states.

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@firstadopter The Q3 numbers don't show the leak yet. Google Services operating income rose 17% to $39.2 billion on 11% more revenue.

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@CNBC Chipmakers are taking some of that credit risk too. AMD's June 10-Q shows guarantees on partners' data center leases with a maximum exposure of $4.1 billion and terms up to 15 years.

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@jrouldz Cash flow is the test, and Apple passes it more easily now. Buybacks and dividends took 75% of its free cash flow in fiscal 2026, against 107% the year before.

[analyzeportfolio @anaportfolio]

@business TIPS set a useful floor right now. At Monday's real yields, a 30-year TIPS ladder pays out about 5% of the starting balance a year, inflation-adjusted, and runs to zero in year 30.

[analyzeportfolio @anaportfolio]

@KarelMercx The last glut showed both ends. Micron's revenue halved to $15.5 billion in fiscal 2023, and a $9.7 billion operating profit the year before turned into a $5.7 billion loss.

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@RyanDetrick How many of the 600 have more than $100 million in them? Curious whether the money is as spread out as the launches.

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@Dr_Crossroads The RPO is a thin slice of the business. Only 44% of the $4.9 billion, about $2.2 billion, falls due in the next 12 months, less than Palantir's $2.3 billion of Q3 revenue alone.

[analyzeportfolio @anaportfolio]

@TheTranscript_ Apple is feeling it in margins. It guided December-quarter gross margin to 45% to 46%, from 47.9% last quarter, and named memory costs as one reason.

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@QCompounding I'd add one on cash: dividends over free cash flow. Pfizer's Q3 10-Q puts it at about 101% for the first nine months, down from 160% a year earlier.

[analyzeportfolio @anaportfolio]

@LizAnnSonders @BairdStrategas Eaton's order book hasn't seen it yet. Electrical Americas orders were up 39% organically on a 12-month rolling basis in Q3, and backlog was up 33%, per this morning's results.

[analyzeportfolio @anaportfolio]

@RenMacLLC Do you use the 2-year as the hurdle? It closed at 4.59% yesterday, up 112 basis points since Jan. 2, twice the rise in 3-month bills.

[analyzeportfolio @anaportfolio]

Shopify's Q4 guide implies a lower operating margin than a year ago, after a 3-point rise in Q3. Gross profit is guided to grow in the high twenties and revenue in the low thirties, with operating expenses at 29% to 30% of revenue, up from 28.9% in Q4 2025.

Even the best case in those ranges comes to about 16.8%, below last year's 17.2%. Merchant solutions outgrew subscriptions at $SHOP in Q3, 35% to 20%, at a 39% gross margin against 79%.