🚨 لم يكسر البيتكوين هذا النمط أبدًا.
لم يتغير شيء.
الخطة بسيطة:
64 ألف دولار → 52 ألف دولار → 43 ألف دولار → 29 ألف دولار
ثم تبدأ موجة الصعود التالية.
للتذكير: توقعت علنًا قاع البيتكوين عند 17 ألف دولار في عام 2022، والقمة عند 126 ألف دولار في عام 2025.
التوقع القادم سيتم نشره هنا أولًا.
تابع الحساب وفعل الإشعارات.
لا تصبح سيولة خروج للآخرين.
started to record a short 10-min live-coding argent episode: a basic multi-actor ticketing app.
one hour later, episode 01 exists 😅
start here:
https://t.co/Hjb9Tksypu
written code:
https://t.co/qdI40DaIoX
A developer-facing programming language and compiler for building onchain Kaspa applications with multiple contracts, cross-app linking, and atomic composition across apps and open app interfaces.
It also includes a comprehensive runtime with one unified api for constructing anything from simple single-app txs to complex cross-app txs.
I believe Argent will become the main surface developers use when building native L1 applications on Kaspa. That should also include the L1 contracts used by higher-order systems such as based zk apps. For example, a canonical bridge interacting with standard L1 assets should speak Argent
$KAS (Log Chart) – Four Years After the July 23, 2022 Breakout
Looking at the full logarithmic chart, Kaspa appears to be approaching one of the most important technical inflection points since the original breakout on July 23, 2022.
Over the past four years, price has transitioned through every stage of a classic market cycle:
• 2022: Explosive breakout from accumulation.
• 2023: Sustained impulsive trend with higher highs and higher lows.
• 2024: Distribution near cycle highs (~$0.20).
• 2025–2026: Multi-month corrective structure, retracing over 85% of the advance while compressing into a falling wedge.
Now, almost exactly four years from that first breakout, price is testing the apex of a multi-year compression.
Technical observations
✅ Price is sitting at the lower boundary of a well-defined falling wedge.
✅ The wedge is nested inside a much larger long-term rising channel that has contained price since the 2022 launch.
✅ The 200-day moving average (~$0.034) remains overhead and is currently acting as dynamic resistance.
✅ Multiple horizontal resistance levels have converged between $0.034–0.041, creating a significant supply zone.
✅ The logarithmic trend remains structurally intact despite the deep correction, with higher timeframe support still holding.
Why next week matters
Markets often become most explosive when time compression and price compression converge.
Kaspa has spent nearly a year forming progressively lower volatility while approaching the same area where several major trendlines intersect.
That doesn't guarantee a breakout—but it does increase the probability that a decisive directional move is close.
Bullish confirmation
The technical picture improves considerably if buyers reclaim:
➡️ $0.0342 (200D MA)
➡️ $0.0356
➡️ $0.0419
A confirmed weekly close above this cluster would invalidate much of the current bearish structure and open the door toward the next resistance zone around $0.046–0.048, followed by $0.077 if momentum expands.
Risk
Failure to hold the wedge support would invalidate this setup and increase the probability of revisiting the $0.017 support before any new impulse begins.
Bottom line
Nothing in technical analysis is certain.
But after four years on a logarithmic chart, Kaspa is approaching one of the tightest multi-year compressions in its history.
Whether the move is up or down, the chart suggests volatility is likely expanding soon.
The next 1–2 weeks could define the next major trend.
#Kaspa #KAS #Crypto #Bitcoin #Altcoins #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #ChartAnalysis #CryptoTrading #Blockchain #BullMarket #LogChart
Now that we have programmability paths on Kaspa, the need to converge on ecosystem standards in the right way becomes paramount.
It appears we lack a fitting forum for such discussions.
A primary and timely example would be a standard specification for native assets. We need a place for technical discussions where wallet devs, explorer devs, community thinkers, and core devs can brainstorm and rapidly converge on ideas without communication gaps, and without important ideas and messages getting lost to oblivion.
As a start, here is a call for community discussion on native assets.
An initial discussion on kas pub rnd is linked below, but again, to me this feels like an echo chamber, with probably the most important voices missing.
>>
🚨 I WARNED YOU ABOUT THIS $BTC MOVE...
Bitcoin is following my roadmap almost perfectly:
$83k → $59k → $68k → $40k → $55k → $36k
Based on that, next plan is simple:
JUN → $68k + start of decline
AUG-SEP → $40k
OCT → $36k ( BOTTOM )
I was one of few who called 2025 $BTC ATH, move from $126k → $60k & $83k → $59k before they happened...
Missed those setups? No stress - more big calls are loading
Turn notifs on - you won't want to be late for next one...
🔥 Toccata arrive le 30 juin.
C’est le hard fork le plus important de l’histoire de Kaspa depuis Crescendo. Il va apporter les covenants natifs sur la Layer 1, ainsi que la possibilité de vérifier des preuves ZK directement sur la chaîne.
Mais derrière ce nom un peu étrange, il y a une petite histoire sympa.
Pourquoi « Toccata » ?
Le nom vient de Michael Sutton. Dans son article d’avril 2026, il explique qu’il a choisi ce nom pour rester dans la tradition musicale de Kaspa (le précédent hard fork s’appelait Crescendo).
Une toccata est une forme musicale très technique, rapide et virtuose (du verbe italien toccare = toucher). C’est une pièce qui met en valeur la vitesse, la précision et la maîtrise technique. Pour Michael, ça collait parfaitement avec ce que ce hard fork représente : rendre Kaspa programmable tout en gardant sa nature ultra-rapide et technique.
Qui a lancé l’idée au départ ?
L’idée initiale des covenants ne vient pas de Michael Sutton, mais d’Ori Newman. C’est lui qui a commencé à pousser le sujet fin 2024 / début 2025, notamment en réaction aux discussions autour d’OP_CAT sur Bitcoin.
À l’époque, le scope était plus modeste : juste ajouter des covenants basiques. Mais le projet a rapidement grossi. Michael Sutton a ensuite pris le lead sur l’expansion du hard fork (ajout des preuves ZK sur L1, Silverscript, l’architecture KIP-21, etc.), et c’est lui qui a formalisé le tout dans son article de référence en avril 2026.
Petite anecdote :
Toccata était initialement prévu plus tôt (certains visaient mai). Mais l’équipe a volontairement retardé l’activation pour bien finaliser la partie ZK et l’architecture des rollups.
Comme l’a dit Michael : mieux vaut faire les choses correctement que rapidement.
En résumé :
Ori Newman = l’initiateur des covenants
Michael Sutton = celui qui a transformé l’idée en un hard fork beaucoup plus ambitieux
Toccata = un nom choisi pour symboliser la virtuosité technique et la vitesse
Le 30 juin, Kaspa ne sera plus seulement « la blockchain la plus rapide ». Elle deviendra programmable tout en restant ultra-rapide.
C’est un tournant.
#Kaspa #Toccata
Toccata, Kaspa's next consensus upgrade, is currently targeted for mid to late June.
Here's what it means for the ecosystem and for Igra.
What is Toccata?
Toccata is the first major Kaspa hard fork since Crescendo. It is a foundational shift towards new L1-native primitives and a stronger base for the execution layers built on Kaspa.
What features does Toccata add to Kaspa L1?
- Covenants: Kaspa-native primitives for enforcing how KAS can be spent. Enables future native L1 assets and vault-like designs.
- ZK opcodes: Groth16 and RISC Zero STARKs verification on Kaspa. Cryptographic groundwork that future capabilities like vProgs and trust-minimized bridges will build on.
- Partitioned sequencing: application-specific lanes that let L1 applications and execution layers maintain isolated transaction history. This scales L1 by isolating each application's data.
How does Toccata relate to rollups?
These primitives are additive to existing execution architectures on Kaspa. EVM rollups like Igra already operate on Kaspa. L1-native capabilities advance in parallel: native Kaspa assets, including potential native stablecoins, become possible as the primitives mature.
What does it mean for Igra?
Several changes for teams integrating with Igra at the L1 level:wy Igra release. We are migrating from txid_mask grinding to a dedicated IGRA lane with updated ATAN storage format and deployment tooling. We are integrating with TN12 and TN10 (where the DAA score transition will be tested) and runnwing our own devnet on the Toccata branch for repeated fork simulation.
What does it mean for the Igra ecosystem?
Several changes for teams integrating with Igra at the L1 level:
- Code that filters or searches for Igra transactions on L1 will need to add a subnet check.
- Code that generates Igra entry transactions (wallets, bridges) will need to include the correct subnet.
More details here: https://t.co/Y3P0wLcwIE
We're considering a transition period to support the current prefix alongside the new subnet requirement; we'll communicate the decision as it firms up.
What's the timeline for integration on Igra?
Igra's Frigate testnet for Toccata integration will be available end of May. Expect several weeks of testing to validate the integration. If you're building on Igra, or plan to, reach out and we'll get you set up.
What does it mean for Igra users and holders?
Your iKAS and all other assets are safe. All bridges and protocols remain operational throughout the testing and upgrade window. Igra has navigated complex mainnet operations before with no asset loss, and we are preparing redundant testing infrastructure to simulate the fork transition extensively before mainnet deployment. No action required from you during this period.
We will keep you informed at every step.
Questions or comments? Please join our socials. Telegram: https://t.co/JBObsp4KNs
Discord: https://t.co/Hrmhj0vKzp
Email: [email protected]
In ~5 months, Kaspa hits a wall.
By July 2026, ~95% of all KAS will be mined.
What happens next could define this asset.
Here's what the emission curve actually means and why it matters more than price. 🧵
1/10
🚨 BREAKING: A BIG STORM IS COMING!!!
US Treasury has a massive problem nobody wants to talk about..
Take a good look at this chart.
That giant blue spike?
Yeah… that’s trillions in U.S. debt that expires in 2026. Not 2030. Not 2040.
2026.
And all of it has to be refinanced at much higher interest rates than the near-zero environment it was originally issued in.
In simple terms:
– The U.S. loaded up on cheap debt.
– That cheap debt now has to be rolled over at expensive rates.
– Interest costs are about to explode.
– Something has to give. Markets, taxes, spending, or the dollar.
This is the kind of structural time bomb that doesn’t hit immediately…
but when it does, it hits everything.
Stocks. Bonds. Housing. Crypto.
No market is immune when a sovereign debt wall this big comes due.
Keep your eyes open because most people will notice this after it’s too late.
I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. Pay close attention.
If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.
#Bitcoin - Full Market Breakdown
In Depth Technical and Psychological Analysis
There seems to be some confusion about my current position in the market so I am making this post to clarify my stance on Bitcoin both in the short term, mid term and long term.
If you have been following me for a while you know that since the beginning of 2025 I have been saying the economy is starting to break down and the Fed needed to start cutting rates immediately to avoid a recession later this year. It was crystal clear that the economy needed easing early in the year. Job data kept worsening while CPI kept falling even though official reports showed rising inflation which was a complete lie. Because of tariffs the reported numbers were much higher than reality and the real inflation numbers were much lower. Economy was breaking down yet Fed decided to ignore.
Easing the economy means adding liquidity to the markets, and this could come in two forms. The first way and most used one is, Fed lowers the interest rate, money gets cheaper, investors borrow more money and liquidity in the markets consequently rises. The second way, is a more aggressive one and its usually used only when interest rates are at 0% or very near and economy needs even more easing. That is the QE (Quantitative Easing), where Fed goes directly to the markets and buys MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) or US Treasury Bonds, adding liquidity to the market directly.
Fed should have cut interest rates at the beginning of the year. By doing so the economy would have received the easing it needed, the market would have resumed its upward trend, and both inflation and unemployment would have returned to healthier levels. And only after that the Fed would decide whether to tighten the economy by raising rates or activate QE after understanding whether or not economy was growing way too fast.
But we know this was not what happened. Fed decided to ignore the only reality. They decided to ignore the fact that unemployment data was getting worse as time passed, and decided to blame the bad unemployment on external political factors such as emigration. They also decided to ignore the fact that CPI was being stated much higher than the real numbers because of tariffs, and during all the time they used both of this argument as excuse to not cut the interest rates as they should have been cut.
As of today Fed still ignores the fact that CPI is being overstated because of tariffs, but they already acknowledge that unemployment data is starting to become concerning and the excuses that were previously used such as emigration are nowhere to be heard, yet again proving that Fed Mafia only acts accordingly to the needs of the people above them and not to the needs of economy. Even knowing that Fed is slowly starting to recognize the bad shape of economy its already too late to take action. Even if they drastically cut the interest rates here it would still take time for this monetary policy to take effect in the economy. Fed is too late! Meaning the only real solution to save the bear market thats coming ahead is a huge liquidity injection in the order of trillions and not in the order of few billions. So, as long as this doesn’t happen, markets will continue to correct until fair value prices that stand way lower in comparison to this levels.
Everyone knows how bullish I was on Bitcoin months ago, until early November where I flipped bearish in the short term as well as the mid term, yet many people refuse to acknowledge whats happening and want to keep being bullish even when all the bullish arguments are gone and the only thing left for bulls is hope. The bullish structure that served Bitcoin broke the same day weekly candle closed bellow EMA50 Weekly, MACD Monthly crossed, and RSI bearish divergence started to play out. All this key indicators that are used to understand where Bitcoin stands in the cycle are showing the start of bear market. We also saw REPO (Standard Repo) market, as well as SRF (Standing Repo Facility) market operations being heavily abused. The AI stocks that are the bone structure of American economy such as $NVDA, $PLTR, $AMD, and many others, starting to fall. All of which Premium shorted! (Join Premium Here: https://t.co/Be1Ub3pdG5) The BOJ (Bank of Japan) is set to increase interest rates signalizing yet another wave of the Japanese carry trade unwind. And last but not least, a factor that I see very few people speaking about, which is the many market makers institutions who went bankrupted in the 10/10 crash, and are now waiting for prices to meet EMA50 Weekly to liquidate tens or hundreds of billions in spot assets.
There is nothing to be bullish about. The bullish arguments such as “QT ended and QE will now start” make no sense and are easily dismissed when you understand that from 2014 until 2017 the Fed kept its balance sheet neutral and only made a few small occasional purchases. The same thing is happening now. The Fed announced a $40bn purchase in the last FOMC and the low IQs are screaming already that is the start of QE. It's not the start of QE! It is just a single operation.
If you still decide to stay bullish in the in the mid term after all of this, I suggest you start preparing to apologize to yourself one year from now. I understand the macro bullishness on Bitcoin. At the end of the day Bitcoin is the single greatest store of value ever created in the history of human kind, because it is the only asset with a truly limited supply and therefore its guaranteed to keep rising as long as the Fed keeps printing money. Still the macro bullishness does not justify being irrationally bullish on short term and on mid term. You can ignore reality but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality, and I promise you now that in one year, you will wish to have shorted the retested of the 100-125k range thats yet to come, just to use the same cash to buy Bitcoin again in the 54-60k region and double your holding without any capital injection.
TO MAKE CRYSTAL CLEAR:
I am expecting a retest on the EMA50 Weekly (Currently at 100k) to happen before the next big leg down. I have now orders to short in the 98-104k region, and I am expecting the next target to come to be 68-74k, with the final target in Q4 of 2026 to be 54-60k.
Join Premium for more: https://t.co/Be1Ub3pdG5
🚨 BREAKING: JAPAN WILL CRASH $BTC
Bank of Japan is set to hike rates +25 bps on Dec 19. Japan = largest holder of US government debt 🇯🇵
📉 Look at the $BTC chart:
Every BoJ rate hike → Bitcoin dumps over 20%+👇
• March 2024 → -23%
• July 2024 → -26%
• January 2025 → -31%
And now… another one loading.
Is $70K coming next? 👀