Abhinav Choudhary

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

@ActusDei Global

[Ajay Bagga @Ajay_Bagga]

Cautiously Optimistic in an Era of Strategic Ambiguity as State Policy :

Option 1: Iranians did not join, no negotiation
Alt 1: US anyways extends the ceasefire...

What Happened:

1. US has Unilaterally , Indefinitely Extended the Ceasefire for this Meaningless/Unwanted/Unpalatable War

2. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz keeps a 15 days deadline in place, as the limited Iranian oil storage gets filled up and then Iran is in a bind, if it shuts any of its already precariously ancient wells, these may never recover .

3. The economic cost on Iran is massive and will pressure an already fragile economy and add to the suffering of the Iranian public at large.

4. The US is incurring massive costs due to the huge deployment it is maintaining in the region, from the Blockade to the troops to the massive Naval concentration including three aircraft carrier groups.
It saves the $ 1 bn per day of a shooting war , but it is incurring costs that go with keeping 3 Naval divisions on 24x7 alert and keeping 60,000 troops on ready alert in the region .

5. Iran has lower staying power economically, will be under pressure from China to come to the negotiation table , but the IRGC seems to be dug in for extending the war for now .

6. For the World, there are no exports out of the Straits, Asian morning Oil futures are up, Stocks are largely down. The World is relieved that the US does not start bombing in a few hours , $200 oil is not being factored in now.

7. However, Second Order effects will start anchoring into the Global Economy in the next 2-3 weeks .

8. This Ceasefire Extension is a small relief, but the tension underlying remains .

9. The US wants out of this unwanted and non-thought through war at the earliest.
The Iranians Need to be out of this, but the IRGC wants to Extend it
The World wants Normalcy of Oil and Gas supplies .

10. What happens now ?

Ceasefire Extension Done with no Iranian Negotiators coming. Blockade Continues. Oil and Gas Disruption Continues.

Markets were right .
And as I finish writing this, oil is down !
Markets were right.

A Moderate voice from Iran is saying the Extension is a Ploy for a renewed Attack .

Markets are looking beyind the Rhetoric, welcoming the Ceasefire , but not surging as the Energy Disruptions stay in place, the Threat of Escalation stays in place , there is no resumption of Bombing , for now.

Cautiously Optimistic in an era of Strategic Ambiguity.

[Ajay Bagga @Ajay_Bagga]

The Americans dont want their VP sitting ,in a waiting room, in an emptied out hotel , waiting for the Iranians that dont show up.....

Hence the departure of the US negotiation team has been postponed from Sunday to Monday to now Tuesday.....

The Iranians are still not confirming if they will land up...

Both sides are doing tough positioning and tough negotiation stances....

But the markets know ....

Both sides have no staying power now...

There is no global support for continuing this meaningless war ...

The world is at the brink, staring at inflation shooting up, energy reserves running out and economies tanking into recession...

The world will change, with new supply chains being explored , with renewables and energy security being made National security , with the world realising that never again should it be so vulnerable to one region...

Nuclear power will come back ...

The Arab nations in the Gulf will build up their defences even further...

All now depends on whether the Iranians decide to join the negotiations...

We will know soon enough...

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

@ZynovaH2534
This place has obnoxious policies and cheats the patients with inconsistent policies. it is very sad that such places stoop to such levels to profit from clients.

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

Hi, I'm on the @ask_fuzz waitlist. It is my research sidekick for everything related to Finance, India and AI. Join me here: https://t.co/R9srsuIInZ

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

@nothing @grok Nothing 3 for me pls

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

@nothingindia @grok Nothing phone 3 pls

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

@riteshmjn @AskPerplexity- pls explain

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

@riteshmjn @AskPerplexity- pls explain the background and impact

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

@HodlMagoo @AskPerplexity- is this true and pls explain the full context backed by data

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

@zerohedge @AskPerplexity- can u pls explain the context and is it true, pls explain

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

@porterstansb @AskPerplexity- is this true about bank of america

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

@amitmalviya @AskPerplexity what is the pause that is being talked around

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

@JaipurDialogues @AskPerplexity is the firing still going on LOC?

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

@FATF,@unhrcpr @IMFNews - How can Pakistan be removed from FATF be removed from Grey list when terrorist like Syed Salahuddin is still being sheltered by Pakistan?

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

@AskPerplexity @hstradeschool @grok @AskPerplexity - pls translate the conversation in English and summarise

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

@zerodhamarkets @AskPerplexity- Can AI take my job?

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

@nooreshtech @AskPerplexity- Can you pls summarise the newsletter from Mr Manish Bhandari

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

@AskPerplexity- pls analyse and summarise the q4 results of hdfc, ICICI and yes Bank q4 results with all the key financial metrics

[Abhinav Choudhary @abhinav153]

@dindunuffi4429 @zerohedge @grok @AskPerplexity- pls explain in detail the above post implications