I've found unequivocally the less I trade, the more I make; going from major overtrading as a beginner, to 1-3 trades max a day now was a huge profit boost. Quality trades are by definition rare. 80% of profitability is avoiding the dozens of mediocre, "no edge" setups each day
Martin Armstrong's ECM model next major top(commodity boom) is due in May 2024. US recessions have always started many months after the ECM top:
December 1989 top - recession July 1990
July 1998 top - recession March 2001
February 2007 top - recession December 2007
Seasonality has shifted, pulling back the so-called "January" effect to November.
This means we tend to see a stronger bid in November and weakness in January based on yearly trends since 1990.
Morgan Stanley's Chief Equity Strategist just said:
"We're looking for an earnings recession that could be as big of a surprise to the market as it was in '08"
Remember when Burry said the same thing back in July?
$VIX closed above the short term downtrend. MACD crossed over to bullish. The CCI and RSI are at a point of interest where they could flip bullish soon.