Adam Lesser

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

You've seen the headlines about Iran not being interested in ceasefire talks. But there is a certain logic by which that means they are interested in ceasefire talks.

[Alex Vacca @itsalexvacca]

BREAKING: MIT just completed the first brain scan study of ChatGPT users & the results are terrifying.

Turns out, AI isn't making us more productive. It's making us cognitively bankrupt.

Here's what 4 months of data revealed:

(hint: we've been measuring productivity all wrong)

[Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ @FreightAlley]

I enthusiastically supported Trump's victory in the November election.

I thought I was voting for pro-business policies and small, targeted, and incremental tariffs that would encourage the production of strategic industries to return to the Americas.

I.e., what we got in the first Administration.

I did not vote for a neutron bomb to wipe out supply chains and small businesses 100 days in.

[Marko Kolanovic @markoinny]

Tourism is a big part of US economy. At this point there is a pattern of not just negligence but apparently deliberate damage to economy and international relations.

https://t.co/ROTQWIApYC

[Adam Lesser @adamdlesser]

3/ Munger warned before he died that the reliability of 10% annual returns should not be taken for granted. Not sure he was discounting a trade war but the political implications here are about the economy, not just the market.

[Adam Lesser @adamdlesser]

Chanos on Odd Lots:
"I don't think we've ever seen anything like this where where a global hegemon has willingly said I'm going to basically shoot myself in the foot and get rid of the exorbitive privilege that we've had as being the global hegemon with the reserve currency."
1/

[Adam Lesser @adamdlesser]

2/ Thinking about the masses of people with long only index fund strategies in their retirement accounts. Also state pension funds with huge liabilities for unionized retirees (teachers, cops, fire).

[Adam Lesser @adamdlesser]

Today feels like actual structural changes in global trade, deglobalization, MMT painting the fed into a corner with inflation, countries aligning economically with military/strategic interests. Today feels like real change that will be much harder for the US economy to address.

[Adam Lesser @adamdlesser]

Been thinking about how the market thought of 2007/2008 vs today. 2007 was a liquidity/credit problem and the fear was the collapse of the banking system. People talked then about structural changes in the economy but the truth is very little changed. But today feels different...

[Adam Lesser @adamdlesser]

@markminervini https://t.co/Zc421WV5Q3

[Adam Lesser @adamdlesser]

@markminervini Lagarde's comments are clear that we're entering a prolonged inflationary period that will not resemble the last decade of low inflation. What people MAY be missing is the structural changes in trade and supply chains that are setting up higher normal rates of inflation.

[Michael Girdley @girdley]

Generation X is weird.

These 42-57 year-olds are so strange it presents golden opportunities.

Here are 10 mind hacks to use with Gen X:

[Adam Lesser @adamdlesser]

This is truly remarkable, particularly given the lens of where we are today.

[Walter Isaacson @WalterIsaacson]

Wow. Every. Single. Word. Of. This. If you watch only one thing today, please make it this 4 minutes, and remember what America is all about.

[Adam Lesser @adamdlesser]

@michaelwolf The 538 defense will be that they build models to create probabilities from polls. They don't poll. I guess the question is can a model account for bad data. The ABC/WP WI +17 biden comes to mind.

Agreed that there need to be new strategies for how to poll in the future

[Adam Lesser @adamdlesser]

@michaelwolf Hahaha, for sure! Have started to wonder if there is some unconscious bias they're not aware of in how they build their models.

[Strand Bookstore @strandbookstore]

📣 We need your help. This is the post we hoped to never write, but today marks a huge turning point in The Strand's history. Our revenue has dropped nearly 70% compared to last year, and the loans and cash reserves that have kept us afloat these past months are depleted.

[JD Ross @justindross]

Bill Gates knows how the next few years play out and he is ensuring the world is prepared. This is the level of competence we should expect from our publicly elected leaders https://t.co/kuZ8vD0wyD

[Adam Lesser @adamdlesser]

@leadlagreport This is not shocking. Quarterly EPS tells us what happened in the last 3 months. It's backwards looking. The market is forward looking 6-12 months. It's telling us what will happen in the next few quarters. After a steep drop in EPS, the market looks forward to a rebound

[Adam Lesser @adamdlesser]

@markminervini Curious given that they have no revenue (fundamental drivers), are you screening simply for new 52 week highs and then looking for a technical setup you like?