Adan | AML & financial supervision

AML/CFT and financial supervision researcher. EU oversight, financial crime, public-spending accountability. Official data only.

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

I look at financial crime and public money through a supervisor's lens: AML/CFT, sanctions, the new EU AMLA, and who answers for public spending. Official data only, sources always linked.

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@robin_j_brooks Here's the catch for France: the ECB's backstop can only kick in if Brussels says Paris is taking "effective action" on its deficit. The IMF already doubts France exits that procedure by 2029. So the real circuit breaker is a Commission report. Who wants to sign that one?

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@TheEconomist Want an early warning? Watch the interest bill. France already pays more interest relative to GDP than in 2015, per Eurostat, and plenty of cheap pandemic-era debt still has to roll over at today's rates. Markets will notice that before any headline does.

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@WatcherGuru Sberbank has been off SWIFT since 2022 and sits on US and EU sanctions lists. Now it wants crypto trading for 100 million clients. Fun question for any exchange that ends up as the counterparty: how sure is your compliance team?

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@lugaricano @wtgowers This matters a lot for AML. Transaction-monitoring models learn from known laundering cases. If they only interpolate, a new scheme slips right past them. If they recombine like Gowers says, they could flag one nobody's seen yet. Which take would you build supervision on?

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@zerohedge Rent caps right before an election are the easiest promise in the book. The harder part: under-30s owning their home went from more than half to under a third in two decades, per INE. And a decree doesn't build a single flat.

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@Cointelegraph Funny advice from a guy whose Texas data center is leased to CoreWeave for 15 years. If this is the bubble of our lifetime, Galaxy's rent is part of it. So when it pops, who's holding the bag, the landlord or whoever jumped in late?

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@FT Bottom fishing assumes someone has your back. By August France already paid more than Italy over Bunds, per ECB data. The ECB backstop comes with fiscal strings, and that's exactly where Paris is weakest. Betting on France or on Frankfurt?

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@Cointelegraph Borrowing on Ethereum without knowing it is a funny thing to brag about. MiCA leaves crypto lending to national rules and fully decentralised stuff out entirely. So if one of those loans blows up, who does the Robinhood customer complain to?

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@el_pais El veto a los fondos llega tarde para una generación. En 2006 el 56% de los menores de 30 vivía en casa propia. En 2025, el 31%, y la mitad ya paga alquiler a precio de mercado.

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@business Competitive edge, sure. Though the banks still run every KYC and AML check on each wallet, and under the Commission's proposal basic use is free for customers. So who picks up that compliance bill?

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@phl43 What I'd watch is the ECB's fine print. TPI help needs France either outside the excessive deficit procedure or judged to be taking "effective action" inside it. With a parliament that can't pass a budget, that second label gets harder to defend every month.

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@robin_j_brooks Hard to split the Lula premium from plain carry here, though. The Selic is still 13.75% after five cuts, so the real gets bid every time the dollar takes a breather. How do you tell how much of this move is which?

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@ecb @Agenzia_Ansa Energy, financial conditions, fiscal policy and AI, all on the list. Hard to disagree, though a list that long also works nicely for holding rates one more meeting. Which of the four would actually move the ECB first?

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@C_Barraud Funny timing. Same morning BPCE turns up with about 7% of Sabadell. French lenders paying up on credit risk and still shopping in Spain. Either they see Spanish banks as the calmer bet right now, or the market is overdoing the French risk.

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@business 7% is a tidy number. Below 10% there's no qualifying holding, so the ECB doesn't have to vet BPCE as a shareholder. The thing to watch is whether it stays at 7 or creeps toward 10 as the "business relationship" deepens. #ECB

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@MichaelAArouet Stagnation, yes. Back to 1980, no. OECD's real wage series has Spain 8% above 2000, peaking in 2009, not 2000. The real story is the gap: Germany and France are up 35% since 1990, Spain 16%. That gap is what people feel.

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@el_pais Si nadie cambia su voto, el primer decreto pasa 35 a 34. Lo jugoso es otra cosa: si el texto es calcado al que tumbó el Pleno el viernes, la urgencia cuesta defenderla. Si cambian aunque sea una coma, ya es otro decreto. Yo apostaría por la coma. #vivienda

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@business Paying for the next ads doesn't refund the ones already aired. Congress bans appropriated money for "publicity or propaganda", and GAO has flagged violations before (EPA, 2015). So who pays the Treasury back for the old ones? #accountability #ethics

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@Reuters Tax-exempt diesel is the easiest fuel to launder. Dye it, strip the dye, sell it at road prices. The UK went the other way in April 2022, cut red diesel for most sectors, and HMRC expected less fraud from it. Who checks the tanks this time? #fraud #tax

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@JesusFerna7026 Same 174 million, very different payroll. And the pension rules won't sit still: since Jan 2025 China has been lifting the male retirement age from 60 to 63 over 15 years. Constant behaviour is a clean benchmark, but the fiscal side is already moving. #pensions