Adam Hogarth

[Ed Conway @EdConwaySky]

Part of the reason we made this long film about the North Sea is that this topic is going to be in the news a LOT in the coming months.
And the approval decision on Jackdaw/Rosebank is coming soon (Rosebank consultation closes today).
But partly it's about something else...

[Ed Conway @EdConwaySky]

Interesting.

When @RachelReevesMP gave "that" press conference in Downing St earlier this month she put the @OBR_UK and its forecasts front and centre as the explanation for why "difficult decisions" (eg tax rises) were necessary.

Yet today we learn, from the chronology sent by the head of the OBR to Meg Hillier of the Treasury Committee, that not only was the OBR forecast NOT going to wipe out her headroom against her fiscal rule, but it had been telling HMT that for weeks.

Indeed, by the time she called that press conference the forecast was already nailed down - and the OBR had NOT put the govt in the red vs its fiscal rule.

The chronology shows the very first set of OBR forecasts, delivered to HMT in early Oct, did indeed suggest all the Chancellor's headroom against her rules had been wiped out. See the -2.5bn next to "Round 1".

But even more striking is what happened next. The forecasts improved. So in every other round the Chancellor would have hit her fiscal rules (had it not been for the govt's own u-turns). By the time of that press conference she still had 4.2bn against her headroom after the OBR forecasts.

Yes that's slightly lower than the 9.9bn she had before. But the real thing that pushed her over the edge and meant she needed to raise taxes was a) the previous govt u-turns on welfare etc and b) the abolition of the two child cap. Not the OBR.

On the one hand the chronology shows that maybe the decision to hold the Budget so late was a masterstroke since it did indeed provide time for the OBR forecast to improve

On the other hand, the tone and content of her press conference seems all the more strange knowing what we know now.

[Piers Morgan @piersmorgan]

Labour’s plan for Britain:
Growth DOWN
Inflation UP
Borrowing UP
Taxes UP
Debt UP
Thanks Rachel! 👏👏👏🤮

[James McMurdock MP @JMcMurdockMP]

Stunned to learn the UK government sends £500m a year in aid to overseas farmers

Almost exactly the same amount it expects to raise from new IHT tax on British farmers

Who on earth does this government think it represents?

https://t.co/XoXp9hV5xO

[Andrew Neil @afneil]

Labour wants the private sector to be its engine of growth.
Labour wants the private sector to invest much more.
Yet The Times reports Labour will jack up private employers’ NICs (public sector employers will be exempt)
And is preparing a raft of new employee rights and regulations.
Baffled as to how you square all this.

[Adam Hogarth @adhogarth92]

@KellyHogarth Fantasy points 🤝

[Adam Hogarth @adhogarth92]

@piersmorgan I don’t understand the thoughts of fans believing Zinchenko shouldn’t have a voice because of the Ozil/Arsenal situation. It might be hypocritical of Arsenal, but Zinchenko is not to blame for that. And I’m sure peoples opinions would change if their families were in danger…

[Fabrizio Romano @FabrizioRomano]

Raheem Sterling’s rep Kelly Hogarth on his future: “Sterling has expressed no discontent with Chelsea, committed his long-term future to the new ownership this summer — there is to be no review of his position in the upcoming transfer window”. 🔵

Sterling wants to stay at #CFC.

[Adam Hogarth @adhogarth92]

Seems @FabrizioRomano talking absolute rubbish this morning 😂

[Matt Law @Matt_Law_DT]

As my great friend John says, no plans to 'review' Raheem Sterling's position at Chelsea. Club happy with him and he's happy at the club. Staff have been struck at how determined he has been since returning from injury and he looks in good shape.

[Gunners @Gunnersc0m]

Once a Gunner, always a Gunner.🤝🔴⚪️

[Adam Hogarth @adhogarth92]

@Will_Rich10 Making up for how shit the first half was!

[Adam Hogarth @adhogarth92]

@3213dev They are forced into it Dev, every press conference etc they are asked about it. They don’t say anything they are made out to be an awful person. If they wanted to be a politician they would have gone into politics not football…

[Adam Hogarth @adhogarth92]

England kick off their World Cup campaign in a few hours , and all you hear online is political statement after political statement. Everybody has know about these issues for the last few years, nothing has changed. Let the players concentrate on playing football #FIFAWorldCup

[DailyAFC @DailyAFC]

Granit Xhaka at full time. #afc https://t.co/a45bmjM6Kd

[Sky Sports Premier League @SkySportsPL]

Man City's Manuel Akanji is a maths genius 🤓🔢

[Adam Hogarth @adhogarth92]

@ArsenalTSN @Gunnersc0m @footyinsider247 Utd have an option to extend by 1 year, which they will defiantly take up. Not going anywhere for free at the end of the season

[Gunners @Gunnersc0m]

The Norwich scarves are about to come back out 🔰

[Adam Hogarth @adhogarth92]

@KellyHogarth Correct

[matt. @mattrushbrooke]

Imagine the Nottingham Forest summer signings doing their initiation songs in the hotel the night before their next away game, it’ll be like fucking Live Aid.

[Adam Hogarth @adhogarth92]

@KaiRoy_95 I was annoyed it was on BT, but now I’m glad I can’t watch it 😂