Prediction markets are more than prices. when people bet real money on what happens next, they're telling you how certain the world is about it.
So i built the World Certainty Index — a live read on how predictable each country's near-term future is.
One thing WCI is not: a safety, stability or a peace score. a country at war can read as "certain" if everyone agrees how it plays out. a calm country with a coin-flip election reads as "uncertain." it's measuring whether we collectively believe the future is settled — not whether it's good.
Built on @Polymarket
built a tool on top of prediction markets data to measure how predictable each country's near term future is, according to people betting real money.
wci
HIP-4 update. This one is big.
Hyperliquid just removed the need for external oracles on prediction markets. The validator set itself is now the oracle.
The same 24 validators that sign blocks every 70ms, secure $3B+ in deposits, and vote bridge withdrawals now deploy and settle prediction markets natively. Automated newsfeed software running as part of regular chain operations. Deployment and resolution through onchain validator vote.
No Chainlink. No Pyth. No UMA. No third party. Closed circuit.
Polymarket uses UMA. Kalshi is centralized. Hyperliquid just made real-world event resolution a native chain function.
Hyperliquid.