- Housing inflation goes negative
- Unemployment goes up 2 percentage points
- Core CPI gets near 2.5% (with owners’ equivalent rent taking about two years to fully play out, that’s probably at least a year away)
- The Fed has unwound the majority of its mortgage manipulation
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There's a safety alert in Jeju Island, South Korea.
15 people are confirmed missing with 4 bodies found so far, the South Korean police is receiving a lot of backlash for their mishandling of the latest case.
Theories are pointing to a possible Serial Killer in the area.
Someone mapped out cases of missing persons on the island.
a Local claims that they're receiving a missing person alert every week.
Married couples can withdraw $131,100 from their brokerage and pay $0 in federal taxes in 2026 (assuming no other income sources)
This is because of a $32,200 standard deduction and $98,900 of long term capital gains taxed at 0%.
This is equal to ~$165,000 pre-tax salary.
Long-term bond yields are on the move again, with the 10-year yield well into the danger zone at 4.73%. As I have written many times, recent history suggests that nothing good happens above 4.5%. Why are yields rising? Is it a reverse “crowding out” effect, where instead of excessive government borrowing crowding out the private sector, it’s the insatiable AI borrowing crowding out Treasuries? Is it the fear that a hawkish-sounding Fed will not match its words with action? Or is it the inevitable consequence (intended or not) of a less transparent Fed? Less transparency means more uncertainty, and more uncertainty usually means high risk premia. Either way, we have a bear steepening on our hands.
Inflation has now been above the Fed's 2% target for 64-straight months.
Since March 2021, we have not had a single US CPI inflation print at or below 2.0%.
Fed Chair Warsh pledges to end this seemingly endless wave of inflation.
This goal has been explicit, the market knows this, but how will the Fed achieve this?
The recent surge in yields reflects exactly that, resulting in a paradox that sums it all up:
Uncertainty is at multi-year highs, yet no one wants bonds.
If ledger got hacked I would lose a portion of my BTC.
If my multisigs got hacked I would lose a portion of my BTC.
If coinbase got hacked I would lose a portion of my BTC.
If Fidelity got hacked I would lose a portion of my BTC.
In no situation would I lose all of my BTC.