Adonis🔸

Brazilian Software developer.
Also forecaster. My track record:

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

@strauss_real

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

@RafaelPaschoare https://t.co/djQhLX3jfL

Professor, realiza meu sonho e participa desse torneio. É bem legal! Acaba de começar.

Eu, e a maioria das pessoas que ficaram entre os melhores nas edições anteriores, sou apenas curioso, não especialista. Queria saber como seria o desempenho de um pro.

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

👀 I lived to see Brazil ranked higher than the USA in V-DEM's Regimes of the World, Electoral Democracy, and Liberal Democracy indices.

https://t.co/ArQgfIkUsG

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

I just found these two cool life expectancy history graphs while playing with Wolfram Alpha.

You can visualize how big a problem infant mortality and the World Wars were.

Thankfully, the world is much better now in these two aspects. I wish more people knew this.

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

@RokoMijic @bryan_caplan The probability that we won't be alive to pay him in 20 years is much higher than 1%, and I'm not talking about doom.

I don't like to think about this, but I try to be very conscious of it and plan accordingly.😕

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

https://t.co/Xc9TPoPBk4
Waking up to the news that I saved humanity in the Metaculus baseline score leaderboard was something I expected about as much as the Spanish Inquisition.

I guess it fits nicely with the Yoshimi Battles the Pink Robots quote I had just put in my profile.

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

@strauss_real O Strauss voltou!

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

Look at me being wrong about AI progress in 2023: https://t.co/51ffeB6yVC

I think I've improved a lot since.

Recently, NVDA surpassed AAPL to become TSMC's biggest customer, and the Feynman GPUs are rumored to skip N2 and use A16.

Was that @DKokotajlo disagreeing with me? 😯

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

They are clearly paranoid about security: that, and not using Phillips screws.

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

I think I figured out why Nintendo stopped making transparent consoles:

They don't want us to see their trade secrets.

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

I'm finding it irresistible to follow the Donut Labs solid-state battery claims, but I barely know anything about batteries.

I also -y4PY5paTXwDCYy_s0lbx3Xjhja_tOUt8ich1AgjOGY

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

@RafaelPaschoare @ibov Qual teve o melhor retorno ajustado ao risco? 😅

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

@RafaelPaschoare Professor, que alegria poder voltar a seguir sua conta principal!

Foi uma enorme perda não tê-lo nela. Era compreensível vê-lo não postar tanto nas outras contas sem o mesmo número de seguidores, então espero que volte com tudo.

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

I finally managed to join the Masters league in @ManifoldMarkets!

In August my net worth was 500 mana. It increased 75x to reach 37k now. Of that increase, 25k was profit.

https://t.co/Ccs7jILlZv

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

Somehow, I managed to finish second in the Fiscal Showdown 2025 Metaculus tournament. The questions were really difficult.

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

Then it explained why it chose these recommendations, and it was surprisingly similar to how I used to effectively do it: it searched for the highest-rated movies from the directors whom I liked the best.

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

Around 10 years ago, I said I was rating every movie I watched because one day AI would then be able to effectively recommend movies to me.

I decided to give Claude Opus 4.6 my imdb spreadsheet with 900 ratings and ask for its top 10 recommendations.

It thought for a long time,

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

ran some code, and then gave me a really solid list in which the top two are movies that I would give a 10/10 rating to, but haven't watched since I began rating. These movies are There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men. I have given this rating to only about 5% of movies.

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

@pfnery "O PIB vai ser 1,8%" NÃO é uma previsão porque não há como avaliar objetivamente o acerto

Nos torneios de previsão que participo, uma previsão desse tipo é feita por meio de uma função de densidade de probabilidade, como na foto, ou por meio de uma % em uma pergunta binária

[Adonis🔸 @adonis_ds]

@9550pro N2? N2P? Custom 2nm node?