Adrian Hurley

Economist in DPER. All things economics, politics & sport! All views are my own.

[Jamie Ohara @Mrjamieohara1]

I don’t actually think I can watch Spurs play anymore, it’s sickening how far we’ve fell apart as club, the whole atmosphere inside that club must be so bad, years of terrible recruitment no culture building and a loser mentality in the premier league, sorry state of affairs

[RTÉ Sport @RTEsport]

90+5mins: 🇭🇺 2-3 🇮🇪

Ireland holds its breath, on the last throw of the dice... Hattrick for Parrott 😮😮😮😮😮😮😮

📺 @rte2 @rteplayer https://t.co/xaKTb2LBVG
📻 @rteradio1 https://t.co/PEszeaDYyf
📱Updates: https://t.co/TC5xt2IxRd

[Ollie Davis @Ollie_Davis]

Boosegumps

[Tottenham Hotspur @SpursOfficial]

Lads, it's Tottenham.

[THFCReport @THFCReports]

Ange Postecoglou: “Season three is always better than season two!” 🥶

[Football on TNT Sports @footballontnt]

Big Ange always knew 😎

[Tottenham Hotspur @SpursOfficial]

Second season, mate.

[Talking THFC @TalkingTHFC]

I'M GONE 😭😭😭

[Tottenham Hotspur @SpursOfficial]

A special date in Spurs history 🗓️

[Tottenham Hotspur @SpursOfficial]

EUROPA LEAGUE FINALISTS

[Tottenham Hotspur @SpursOfficial]

Good morning to everyone who loves Tottenham Hotspur Football Club

[Nouriel Roubini @Nouriel]

MASA: Make America Scammy Again!

High suspicion of insider trading ahead of the Trump announcement of the 90 day tariff pause and Trump tweet to buy. Will the SEC look into this stinking set of insider trades or is the new SEC MAGA-fied and ignore this potential big insider scam? Who knew before the announcement and did such dirty inside job?

[John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch]

NEW 🧵

A quick thread of charts showing how Trump’s economic agenda is going so far:

1) Trump has had the same impact on economic uncertainty as a global pandemic.

[Olivier Blanchard @ojblanchard1]

With apologies, a long tweet, about the likely macroeconomic outcomes of Liberation Day.

Tariffs can be imposed for understandable if not necessarily good reasons: Protect a sector, right or wrong. Extract rents from foreign producers if there are rents to be extracted. Sure, if there is retaliation, everybody will be worse off, but it maybe worth taking the risk.

Across the board tariffs, which sounds like what we are going to get, are however the worse possible tariffs. They are bad for the country that imposes them, even without retaliation.

Standard scenario: The initial effect of higher tariffs may look good: Lower imports. Higher demand for domestic goods. Smaller trade deficit.

But, with the smaller deficits, and the higher interest rates needed to keep demand under control, appreciation of the dollar (say), less competitive exports. Until trade deficit is back to square one.

So: Useless? Worse. Costly reallocation from exports to import competing sectors. Misallocation. And for the revenues from tariffs: They are there, but in the end, they are paid mostly by US consumers.

A relevant twist, which changes the standard scenario: The enormous uncertainty about Trumps’s tariff policy: Are the tariffs transactional or permanent? Will they remain/increase/decrease?

In that environment, if I am a firm, what do I do? Build a plant in Mexico or in the US, in Vietnam or in China, etc. I do not know, and so I wait. We all wait. Investment comes down, aggregate demand falls, and the effect is a recession.

Now the trade balance improves, for two reasons. The direct effect of tariffs, and lower activity means lower imports. As the Fed tries to maintain activity, lower interest rates and a lower dollar mean more exports. Looks great. Claim of success on the trade front (if you can make people forget the recession)

But only for a while. Over time, as the economy recovers, you go back to the first scenario. The depreciation eventually turns into an appreciation, activity recovers, the trade deficit returns to square one Overall result: a recession, no gain. A general mess.

We shall see how it all turns out.

[Football on TNT Sports @footballontnt]

CELTIC TAKE THE LEAD LATE ON! 🍀

It's an own goal, but they won't care - Idah goes through and his effort is saved but it hits Benito and rolls into the net.

📺 @tntsports & @discoveryplusUK

[Henry Winter @henrywinter]

Spurs' only real leaders tonight were both 18: Lucas Bergvall who never stopped running, never gave up the fight, and also Archie Gray, again immense out of position. Djed Spence (24) was good. Otherwise, #THFC players failed to rise to the #NLD challenge. #ARSTOT

[James @James_COYS_]

🗣️ “But if you want to have a lovely house, you need better furniture.”

🔁 Almost 6 years later and this quote is still relevant.

😴 Exhausting, repetitive, predictable.