Aeimit Lakdawala

Associate Professor of Economics, Wake Forest University

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

Kevin Warsh wants the Fed to say less. But does he also want it to be less precise? Our new paper takes up exactly how precise the Fed should be. And shows why clearer guidance may not always be better. A short thread on the idea and some evidence. #EconTwitter #FOMC

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

@paulnovosad Broadly agree with you. But for NHJ perhaps it's a little damning because she knew going in that the school was not "good enough" and should have been more on top of monitoring her daughter's performance. But yes, her daughter will be fine; NHJ has to be commended overall.

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

@IrvingSwisher Agree in principle but with faster courts you worry about too many aces.

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

And if we could somehow further split these by "micro" (i.e. using RCT etc..) vs "macro" I bet the ratio of China to India would be way more skewed in macro

[Matthew E. Kahn @mattkahn1966]

The NBER has produced these data tabulating the "Key Words" that Working Paper Alert subscribers prioritize. The ratio of "China" to "India" is 7 to 1! Geoeconomics is King!?
https://t.co/DvKW9NhmpG

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

@Kumar_EconIneq If only there were researchers in our field who studied incentives and market structure...

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

Wake Forest is hosting I-85 this fall.

[Roozbeh Hosseini @roozbeh52]

🚨Call for Paper🚨
The Fourteenth I-85 Macro Workshop will be held at Wake Forest University on October 30, 2026.
Submission deadline is August 31st.
Upload your paper (preferred) or long abstract here
https://t.co/uMV0Hf8euO
Please share with colleagues & students.

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

@dandolfa Thanks and yes, we are definitely thinking along these lines. Will send any substantial updates your way.

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

Kevin Warsh wants the Fed to say less. But does he also want it to be less precise? Our new paper takes up exactly how precise the Fed should be. And shows why clearer guidance may not always be better. A short thread on the idea and some evidence. #EconTwitter #FOMC

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

@dandolfa yes that's right, we don't model the optimal setting of the level of the interest rate. I meant monetary shock more as unexpected (from the market's perspective) interest rate decision.

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

@dandolfa On current Warsh situation of moving to less precise guidance, our model suggests that while markets are having a tough time filtering signal from communication now, in the future any monetary shocks will disrupt financial markets less (relative to not having lowered precision)

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

@dandolfa Yes, absolutely a theory of second best result! When we started we had in mind a framework that would help explain why precision chosen by central banks changes over time. This model, a first simple attempt, is static but gives some insight on this.

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

@TheStalwart https://t.co/7KYcXxcdK9

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

@dandolfa Here's a new paper for one way to think about what Warsh might have in mind. https://t.co/5mtvS9qRXY

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

@dandolfa Here's a new paper for one way to think about what Warsh might have in mind. https://t.co/5mtvS9qRXY

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

Kevin Warsh wants the Fed to say less. But does he also want it to be less precise? Our new paper takes up exactly how precise the Fed should be. And shows why clearer guidance may not always be better. A short thread on the idea and some evidence. #EconTwitter #FOMC

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

Here's a @WakeForestNews story about my paper: https://t.co/dnlDSSEeXt

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

Kevin Warsh wants the Fed to say less. But does he also want it to be less precise? Our new paper takes up exactly how precise the Fed should be. And shows why clearer guidance may not always be better. A short thread on the idea and some evidence. #EconTwitter #FOMC

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

Full paper, joint with Jinyoung Seo and Myunkyu Shim available here: https://t.co/Ek7sxXtQRM Comments welcome!

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

So back to Warsh and next week’s FOMC meeting. Our results are not a blanket case for less guidance. The right amount of precision depends on the environment the Fed faces, which is worth keeping in mind as it rethinks how it communicates.

[Aeimit Lakdawala @aeimit]

@paulnovosad As good as your research is, with frequent takes like these, your impact could be higher as an influencer :)

Keep them coming!