AFL Live Ladder

Unofficial, but accurate.
Predictive model based on team strengths (no players) calculated by subtracting obvious luck. Won 12 tipping comps for computer models

[AFL Live Ladder @AflLadder]

What is Luck?
First, it's the thing that the Live Ladders model attempts to subtract from the scoreboard result, to find an underlying margin.
Second, it's what propelled the tipping model to 156 this year, 20 ahead of the bookies. 24 of 29 @SquiggleAFL models beat them. [1/3]

[AFL Live Ladder @AflLadder]

Win-Loss Record for selected scores this year:
92: 5-0 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
99: 4-0 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
102: 0-4 🤡🤡🤡🤡
103: 5-0 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
104: 6-0 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

[Gigs @AndrewGigacz]

FUN* FOOTY FACT: 102 has been a final score four times so far in the 2026 #AFL season, and it's been a losing score each time.
R07 Adel 15.13.103 d StK 15.12.102
R07 Mel 16.8.104 d Bris 15.12.102
R09 Frem 17.12.114 d WB 15.12.102
R13 Syd 15.14.104 d StK 15.12.102

#AFLSwansSaints

[AFL Live Ladder @AflLadder]

My highly scientific survey says 75% of Essendon fans and 50% of other clubs' fans would like to see Hird coach again. Potentially those 50% are into it for the chaos

[AFL Live Ladder @AflLadder]

Who would you like to see coach Essendon?

[AFL Live Ladder @AflLadder]

Who would you like to see coach Essendon?

[AFL Live Ladder @AflLadder]

Aaron Sandilands sought as new Essendon coach

[enthusiasm @FarhanN78265394]

@fmeetsdata Imagine going unbeaten in the league but it only get you third and Q2 European play offs lmao

[AFL Live Ladder @AflLadder]

… and by their biggest win:
1. Syd 128
2. StK 101
3. W.B. 81
4. GWS 78
5. Coll 77
=6. N.M., Geel 75
=8. Adel, G.C. 68
10. Bris 64
11. P.A. 63
12. Haw 62
13. Freo 60
14. Melb 54
15. Ess 45
16. Carl 34
17. Rich 18
18. WCE 17

[AFL Live Ladder @AflLadder]

Seems like everyone is copping blowouts. Teams ranked by their biggest loss:
1. Freo 10 points
2. Syd 27
3. StK 33
4. Haw 39
5. P.A. 46
6. Melb 48
7. G.C. 49
8. Adel 52
9. Coll 54
10. Geel 56
11. Carl 63
12. N.M. 68
=13. Rich, W.B. 75
15. Ess 77
16. Bris 78
17. GWS 81
18. WCE 128

[The xG Philosophy @xGPhilosophy]

Hull City should’ve been relegated to League One, based on xG.

They’ll be playing in the Premier League next season.

[Tony Corke @MatterOfStats]

Aggregate Q1 scores in the 7 games so far in Round 10 of the men's AFL

7.6, 6.6, 7.6, 7.6, 6.6, 6.6, 6.7

[AFL Live Ladder @AflLadder]

Five hours ago, Hawthorn led Adelaide by 1½ wins and over 15%. The Crows' percentage is now higher then the Hawks' (not that it matters with the draw)

[Tony Corke @MatterOfStats]

Most important games in the men's AFL home and away season

[AFL Live Ladder @AflLadder]

@maxlaughton @djx1984 @FOXFOOTY This year it looks like the bottom four will rack up losses, and a cluster float up to around 12 wins. 11 wins is quite unlikely to get a wildcard, 12 wins might need percentage too

[AFL Live Ladder @AflLadder]

Raise a pot of Carlton Draught for the Blues' first xScore win of the year

[AFLxScore @AFLxScore]

#AFLFreoBlues Final xScores:
FRE 103 from expected 89.5 (+0 rushed)
CARL 87 from expected 96.2 (+2 rushed)

[Xander McGuire @XanderMcGuire7]

Carlton is one of many clubs building an AI analysis machine to use in game, and they poached Collingwood’s AI guru to do it.

Collingwood, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and Geelong are understood to be other leaders in the space.

The AI arms race is on👇

[Emlyn Breese @EmlynBreese]

225 VFL/AFL teams have had the lead at at least 1 quarter break in each of their first 6 matches of a season

6W-0L: 44 teams
5-0: 66
5-0-1D: 9
4-2: 53
4-1-1: 5
4-0-2: 1
3-3-0: 29
3-2-1: 3
2-4: 13
2-3-1: 1

1-5: North Melbourne 1956, Carlton 2026

[AFL Live Ladder @AflLadder]

@NickWelch51 People want clear and simple solutions, so they invent them and stretch them to cover complex situations. That plus tribal bias and anti-authoritarianism

[AFL Live Ladder @AflLadder]

If Collingwood was excluded from the AFL, the average points per game would rise from 178 to 182.

The proposal has other benefits …

[AFL Live Ladder @AflLadder]

@insightlane

[AFL Live Ladder @AflLadder]

More superficial nonsense from SEN & Morris. He says Wildcard games won't be sold *this year*, which is not what anyone was reporting. The ABC stated they are for sale from 2027, which is not contradicted here.

[SEN 1116 @1116sen]

Rest easy - Wildcard Finals won't be sold says @tommorris32 !

#CrunchTime

[AFL Live Ladder @AflLadder]

@ScottHe42127353 Shot equity gap was -60, -35 and -13. Flattered by oppo missing shots keeping the Crows in it

[AFL Live Ladder @AflLadder]

Not going to argue about the gap between 12th & 13th. But the gap between 7th & 8th is the same size.
Top 7 all 10+ ppg: Haw, Geel, Syd, G.C., B'dogs, Bris, Freo
Middle +2 to -2: Coll, Adel, GWS, Melb, St.K
Bottom 6 all -10 ppg or lower: Port, Carl, North, Ess, Rich, WCE

[Max Laughton @maxlaughton]

Feels like there are basically two AFL divisions right now - the top 12, and then the bottom six of Carlton, Essendon, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond and West Coast.

Division 1 is currently 7-0 against Division 2 with an average margin of 66 points.