Mister B

I run football predictive and statistical models. Play a bit of poker too.

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

Closed at 5.34, ended 4-4, model spotted value on D/A

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

Model spotted value on Mjallby (5.70 to win) tonight. Odds is now 4.98. Interesting.

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

Model spotted value on Mjallby (5.70 to win) tonight. Odds is now 4.98. Interesting.

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

here are the +EV positions my new model recommends in Sweden, Finland, Ireland and China first divisions games this weekend.
If you consider using, be aware of the following:
1) ⚠️ it's under paper & pencil test
2) be responsible

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

love that

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

here are the +EV positions my new model recommends in Sweden, Finland, Ireland and China first divisions games this weekend.
If you consider using, be aware of the following:
1) ⚠️ it's under paper & pencil test
2) be responsible

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

@NeilMac555 @dixo47 The AH line should be between 1.75 and 2 imo. Was 1.5 this morning.

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

@NeilMac555 Maybe sharps manipulating the market. Or realising that, actually, Austria suck

[Coach @NumeroQuinze]

Michael Olise is the favourite footballer of your favourite footballer

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

@NeilMac555 Same « no hype, no vibes » write-ups bs

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

Strategy 1: +4.54u, 23.89% ROI
Strategy 2: -1.31u, -6.9%

(1u flat per bet)

Very small sample here, nothing to be gained from it or to say about it yet, this could very much happened by chance only. Let's see how it performs on the next fixtures.

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

New Model weekend 1 results. "Bet1" column shows a betting strategy when it bets any value as followed: value on Home or Away only, bet "H" or "A", value on H/D or A/D, bet the asian handicap line, value on H/A, bet DC 12. "Bet2" shows bets on the highest value only. Results 👇🏼

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

depending on your strategy, you may have made some dosh following those spotted +EV positions. Full breakdown tomorrow.

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

China, Finland and Ireland's First divisions do play this weekend and are the perfect playground for me to test a new model. So, here are the +EV positions it recommends. If you consider using, be aware of the following:
1) ⚠️ it's under paper & pencil test
2) be responsible

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

« No hype, no vibes », just ChatGPT writing that shitty tipster tweet

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

Doesn't mean anything but the first detected value (Qingdao Hainiu v Yunnan Yukun) has just landed. Odds for a home win was 3.0 at the time of posting.

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

China, Finland and Ireland's First divisions do play this weekend and are the perfect playground for me to test a new model. So, here are the +EV positions it recommends. If you consider using, be aware of the following:
1) ⚠️ it's under paper & pencil test
2) be responsible

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

additional notes:
- some values are huge, I don’t know why and what to do with that (yet)
- markets are not all liquid (yet)

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

China, Finland and Ireland's First divisions do play this weekend and are the perfect playground for me to test a new model. So, here are the +EV positions it recommends. If you consider using, be aware of the following:
1) ⚠️ it's under paper & pencil test
2) be responsible

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

Values calculated on Betfair Exchange odds at the time of posting

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

China, Finland and Ireland's First divisions do play this weekend and are the perfect playground for me to test a new model. So, here are the +EV positions it recommends. If you consider using, be aware of the following:
1) ⚠️ it's under paper & pencil test
2) be responsible

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

Algeria v Austria draw odds history (Pin and average Asian books)

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

i am looking for easily downloadable xG stats. Anyone ?

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

Magnificent 4th quarter

[OptaJoe @OptaJoe]

1 - Switzerland 4-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina was the first game in FIFA World Cup history to see as many as five goals scored with all of them coming after the 70th minute.

Climax.

[Mister B @againsttheodds]

Portugal - Congo DR, Over 2.5 at 1.82 is attractive too. Congo's got a strong defense but that Portugal team is offensively insane