JL

“I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me.” (John 14:6)

[JL @aggou]

🚨 GUILFORD COUNTY, NC — THURSDAY EARLY VOTE (10/22)

🗳️ 8,988 additional votes Thursday
📉 −1,171 from Wednesday (−11.5%)

📊 WEDNESDAY → THURSDAY NEW VOTES:

🔵 DEM: 4,614 → 4,158 (−456)
🔴 REP: 2,062 → 2,062 (0)
⚪ UNA: 2,836 → 2,747 (−89)

📈 CUMULATIVE PARTY SHARE SHIFT:
🔵 DEM: 51.2% → 50.4% (−0.8 pp)
🔴 REP: 18.8% → 19.4% (+0.6 pp)
⚪ UNA: 29.8% → 29.9% (+0.1 pp)

📊 CUMULATIVE TOTALS:
🔵 DEM: 30,692
🔴 REP: 11,825
⚪ UNA: 18,230

🗳️ 60,882 total early votes

[JL @aggou]

🚨 CARTERET COUNTY, NC — THURSDAY EARLY VOTE

🗳️ 1,636 votes cast Thursday
📉 −27 from Wednesday (−1.6%)

📊 DAILY EARLY VOTE TOTALS:

Thu 10/15: 2,198
Fri 10/16: 1,940
Mon 10/19: 2,081
Tue 10/20: 1,779
Wed 10/21: 1,663
Thu 10/22: 1,636

📊 CUMULATIVE EARLY VOTE:
11,297 votes

[JL @aggou]

🚨 NEW HANOVER COUNTY, NC — THURSDAY EARLY VOTE (10/22)

Republicans actually won the day. Dems held strong for a week.

🗳️ 4,475 votes Thursday
📉 −543 from Wednesday (−10.8%)

📊 WEDNESDAY → THURSDAY DAILY VOTE:

🔵 DEM: 1,647 → ~1,385 (−262)
🔴 REP: 1,520 → ~1,420 (−100)
⚪ UNA: 1,619 → ~1,629 (+10)

📈 CUMULATIVE PARTY SHARE SHIFT:
🔵 DEM: 36.96% → 36.07% (−0.89 pp)
🔴 REP: 25.44% → 26.37% (+0.93 pp)
⚪ UNA: 37.28% → 37.04% (−0.24 pp)

📊 CUMULATIVE TOTALS:
🔵 DEM: 10,919
🔴 REP: 7,983
⚪ UNA: 11,212

🗳️ 30,270 total early votes

[JL @aggou]

🚨 DAVIDSON COUNTY, NC — THURSDAY EARLY VOTE

🗳️ 2,462 votes cast Thursday
📈 +43 from Wednesday (+1.8%)

📊 DAILY EARLY VOTE TOTALS:

Thu 10/15: 2,106
Fri 10/16: 2,345
Sat 10/17: 1,184
Mon 10/19: 2,510
Tue 10/20: 2,636
Wed 10/21: 2,419
Thu 10/22: 2,462

📊 CUMULATIVE EARLY VOTE:
15,662 votes

[JL @aggou]

🚨 FORSYTH COUNTY, NC — THURSDAY EARLY VOTE

🗳️ 6,572 additional votes Thursday
📉 −337 from Wednesday (−4.9%)

📊 WEDNESDAY → THURSDAY NEW VOTES:

🔵 DEM: 3,003 → 2,732 (−271)
🔴 REP: 1,660 → 1,730 (+70)
⚪ UNA: 2,227 → 2,083 (−144)

📈 CUMULATIVE PARTY SHARE SHIFT:
🔵 DEM: 48.0% → 47.1% (−0.9 pp)
🔴 REP: 20.1% → 21.0% (+0.9 pp)
⚪ UNA: 31.7% → 31.7% (0.0 pp)

📊 CUMULATIVE TOTALS:
🔵 DEM 21,442
🔴 REP 9,546
⚪ UNA 14,447

🗳️ 45,541 total early votes

[JL @aggou]

@DurmBull I'm more interested in why their UNA vote is so low but yes it did flip red haha

[JL @aggou]

🚨 NEW HANOVER COUNTY — THURSDAY 5:18 PM

🗳️ 29,761 cumulative early votes
📈 3,433 votes reported today

This looks like a fairly low turnout day, perhaps 4K when it’s done? I’m estimating Republicans or Dems to be leading by around 10 votes one way or another by 7:30’s post.

📊 LATEST INTERVAL (4:02 → 5:18 PM)
🔵 DEM +165 (31.7%)
🔴 REP +155 (29.8%)
⚪ UNA +201 (38.6%)

📊 ADDITIONS SINCE WEDNESDAY EVENING:
🔵 DEM +1,206
🔴 REP +1,247
⚪ UNA +1,517

📈 CUMULATIVE PARTY SHARE SHIFT:
🔵 DEM −0.9 pp
🔴 REP +0.8 pp
⚪ UNA +0.2 pp

📊 CUMULATIVE PARTY TOTALS:
🔵 DEM 10,741
🔴 REP 7,839
⚪ UNA 11,033

[JL @aggou]

🚨 NEW HANOVER COUNTY — THURSDAY 4 PM

🗳️ 29,229 cumulative early votes
📈 +977 since 2 PM

📊 LATEST INTERVAL (2 → 4 PM)
🔵 DEM +291 (30.1%)
🔴 REP +305 (31.6%)
⚪ UNA +368 (38.2%)
Other +2

📊 ADDITIONS SINCE WEDNESDAY EVENING:
🔵 DEM +1,041
🔴 REP +1,092
⚪ UNA +1,316

📈 CUMULATIVE PARTY SHARE SHIFT:
🔵 DEM −0.8 pp
🔴 REP +0.7 pp
⚪ UNA +0.2 pp

📊 CUMULATIVE PARTY TOTALS:
🔵 DEM 10,576
🔴 REP 7,684
⚪ UNA 10,832.

[JL @aggou]

🚨 NEW HANOVER COUNTY — THURSDAY 2 PM

🗳️ 28,252 cumulative early votes
📈 2,456 votes reported today

📊 LATEST INTERVAL (12:13 → 2 PM)
🔵 DEM +258 (35.2%)
🔴 REP +215 (29.4%)
⚪ UNA +254 (34.7%)
Other +5

📊 ADDITIONS SINCE WEDNESDAY EVENING:
🔵 DEM +750
🔴 REP +787
⚪ UNA +948

📈 CUMULATIVE PARTY SHARE SHIFT:
🔵 DEM −0.6 pp
🔴 REP +0.6 pp
⚪ UNA +0.1 pp

📊 CUMULATIVE PARTY TOTALS:
🔵 DEM 10,285
🔴 REP 7,379
⚪ UNA 10,464

Republicans have added 37 more registered-voter additions than Democrats since Wednesday evening.

[JL @aggou]

@Chester1799 It's hard to imagine they won't be with how many 4/4's they have

[JL @aggou]

🚨 NEW HANOVER COUNTY — THURSDAY 11:40 AM

🗳️ 26,926 cumulative early votes
📈 1,130 votes reported today

📊 LATEST INTERVAL (10:10 → 11:40 AM)
🔵 DEM +128
🔴 REP +163
⚪ UNA +196

📊 SINCE WEDNESDAY EVENING:
🔵 DEM +299
🔴 REP +366
⚪ UNA +475

📈 CUMULATIVE PARTY SHARE SHIFT:
��� DEM −0.4 pp
🔴 REP +0.3 pp
⚪ UNA +0.2 pp

📊 CUMULATIVE TOTALS:
🔵 DEM 9,834
🔴 REP 6,958
⚪ UNA 9,991