Aggregated Wisdom

Prediction Markets Guru. #kalshi #autonity #manifold #polymarket

[autonity_ @autonity_]

This Github repo underlines the exact steps on how to build permissionless products on Autonity. Give it a go.

Builders are shipping products ranging from global earthquake count, surface air temperature anomalies, Superbowl predictions and more!

https://t.co/VNaO8MUYVl

[Aggregated Wisdom @aggwis]

I tried a fun experiment during Forecastathon S4: I used Claude Code to build and deploy a prediction market product on @autonity_ 's AFP. It actually worked and the big surprise was how much time the AI saved on debugging and edge cases.

https://t.co/vU2tCFYJw8

[Aggregated Wisdom @aggwis]

@autonity_ Always permissionless

[Aggregated Wisdom @aggwis]

@0xNairolf Autonity enables permissionless market creation. Also any permissionless market creator will be able to earn fees from the volume they generate as you say @autonity_

[Aggregated Wisdom @aggwis]

@autonity_ Love the BTCVOL product you guys had. Would love to trade a SPX VIX market. Ready with the product specs to deploy my market!

[PJ @Prithvir12]

Prediction Market Weekly Update

Notional Volume
1. @Kalshi $2.01b
2. @Opinionlabsxyz $1.60b
3. @Polymarket $1.50b
4. @PredictProtocol $109m
5. @ForecastEx $32m
6. @Trylimitless $9.0m
7. @MyriadMarkets $1.8m

Total $5.26b
WoW -0.7%

Open Interest
1. @Kalshi $356m
2. @Polymarket $287m
3. @Opinionlabsxyz $132m
4. @PredictProtocol $21.9m
5. @ForecastEx $3.6m
6. @MyriadMarkets $0.75m
7. @Trylimitless $0.69m

Total $801m
WoW +19.6%

Transactions
1. @Polymarket 11.40m
2. @Kalshi 11.08m
3. @Opinionlabsxyz 683k
4. @MyriadMarkets 167k
5. @Trylimitless 154k
6. @PredictProtocol 111k
7. @ForecastEx 71k

Total 23.67m
WoW +14.4%

Users
1. @Polymarket 262k
2. @Opinionlabsxyz 59k
3. @PredictProtocol 8.1k
4. @Trylimitless 3.9k
5. @MyriadMarkets 2.8k

Total 335k
WoW +13.3%

I post these every Friday.

Let me know what other metrics you want tracked.

h/t @datadashboards for the @Dune dashboard

Trade all markets from one interface with @tradefoxai 🦊

[autonity_ @autonity_]

Forecastathon Season 4 update:

Team formation has been extended by one week through Jan 22nd, with competition starting Jan 23rd (originally Jan 16th).

Season 4 represents a significant infrastructure upgrade permissionless product creation, binary prediction markets launching alongside Forecast Futures, new product builder tools, and more.

The additional week allows for thorough testing and ensures a smooth launch experience.

Get prepared:

- Join or create a team: If you haven't already, join or create your team: https://t.co/qFuPaT7SXl
- Resources and documentation: https://t.co/NNDklDw36N

Questions? Join our Discord and Telegram communities (links at https://t.co/MA8bEH2Tdu).

Trading launches January 23rd.

See you there.

-- The Autonity Team

[nick @nickemmons]

Just read this paper and here is my take:

Prediction markets are stuck in 1972.

Prediction markets right now = options markets before Black-Scholes. Everyone's trading probabilities with no shared model for how they actually move.

MMs are getting destroyed by volatility, news shocks, and cross-event correlation because there's no standard way to hedge. This is what happens on the backend when prices jump.

The fix that, this paper proposes:

- Map bounded probabilities (0-1) to unbounded log-odds.
- Model beliefs as baseline drift + news shocks (jump-diffusion).

Enforce the 'Martingale' rule: prices shouldn't have a predictable drift. If the market knew it was going up, it would have gone up already.

What you get is the prediction market equivalent of "implied volatility" (a metric that determines how big a price move might be.)

- Belief volatility (how fast odds move)
- Jump intensity (how often news gaps prices)
- Cross-event correlation (how markets move together)

Once the above can be accounted for, you unlock derivative layers that don’t exist yet:

- Belief variance swaps (a derivative where you can trade on market volatility itself)
- Correlation swaps (hedge market baskets)
- Corridor variance (only count vol in the 40-60% swing zone)
- Threshold notes (i.e. "does this hit 70% before Friday?")

Why is Black-Scholes important?

Before Black-Scholes:
- everyone priced options differently
- chaos, wide spreads, guessing

After Black-Scholes:
- everyone argued about one thing only: volatility
- markets got tight, liquid, scalable

Prediction markets need a Black-Scholes equivalent. So that we can build upon them.

Without it, market makers keep getting farmed and liquidity stays shallow.

With it, prediction markets become scalable infrastructure.

[Aggregated Wisdom @aggwis]

Interesting that @autonity_ is bringing permissionless prediction markets

Manifolds have done this with quite a bit of success. Question is: will there be no vetting at all for the permissionless products users are able to create?

[autonity_ @autonity_]

Season 4 of the Forecastathon is going to be a big one for product builders.

If you've ever wanted to build permissionless prediction markets, this is your moment.

[Mikita @mikita_crypto]

Trader earned more than $4M in 30 days betting on sports on Polymarket

He has 3655 bets, and the most successful one has +49900% ROI

This guy apparently knows something in sports analytics. He reminds me of someone who organizes fixed matches

growth strategy:

> buys "YES" below 10-15¢
> aggressively increases position size
> sells the position before resolution < 1$

He plays on the volatile sports market, where the probability of an outcome can change sharply. Selling below a dollar insures the trader against loss

volatility + risk management = high profit

profile: https://t.co/9drDV3UKFu

[gemchanger @gemchange_ltd]

The math that made Wall Street billions pricing options just got ported to prediction markets

This paper builds the first Black-Scholes equivalent for platforms like Polymarket

Treating belief volatility as a quotable risk factor, with proper tools for hedging jump risk around elections and macro events.

The paper is dense but worth it:

[Aggregated Wisdom @aggwis]

Just bridged some USDC from Polygon to Autonity smooth experience, took a few seconds https://t.co/Vb1UEmuk5q

[Limitless @trylimitless]

The weekly points distribution has been completed.

Just TWO weeks left until the end of the Season 2.

We're almost at finish line. NOW is the time to accelerate.

[Dexter's Lab @DextersSolab]

You will 𝗡𝗘𝗩𝗘𝗥 beat 𝗣𝗻𝗟 of this Polymarket trader

He turned $𝟱𝟬𝟬 into $𝟮𝟯𝟯𝗸 with a 𝗣𝘆𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗻 bot

His secret? You won't believe me if I tell you

But here’s what the bot is actually doing:

Polymarket asks:

“Will $BTC be up or down in the next 15 minutes?”

Most people quickly bet based on TA and other factors.
But this bot waits.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘁 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀:

> Trades $BTC 15-minute Up/Down markets only
> Enters minutes AFTER the window starts
> Holds to settlement for the $1 payout
> Repeats this loop all day

No leverage.
No guessing tops.
No macro takes.

The edge is timing, not direction.

By minute 3-5:

> Spot momentum is already clear on the tape
> Binance & Coinbase have picked a side
> $BTC is already moving

But Polymarket?

Still repricing and ooffering cheap odds on the losing side of time.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁 𝗯𝘂𝘆𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴.

Not because it predicts $BTC, but because the move already happened.

It’s not early.
It’s late on purpose.

Market example: [https://t.co/wMxu1QFibQ]

𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝘀:

> Short windows = constant repetition
> Small mispricings = high confidence
> Settlement is binary ($1 or $0)
> You don’t need big moves, just confirmation

Each trade is boring, but that’s the point.

Hundreds of near-identical windows.
Wins capped.
Losses rare.

𝗛𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱’𝘃𝗲:

> Jumped in early
> Overthought entries
> Tried to optimize returns

The bot doesn’t.

It waits, clicks, settles and repeats.

This isn’t alpha.
It’s patience turned into code.

While you predict where $BTC is going next, this script just rents the last minutes of certainty.

That’s how 15-minute markets quietly turn into an infinite money glitch.

𝗛𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗶𝗹𝗲:[https://t.co/XrKH0f0EW6]

[autonity_ @autonity_]

7/ The product builder who consistently ships the best products in a category becomes the one people follow.

And of course, the product spec needs a clear, verifiable oracle source.

Builders who bring great data + clean specs are going to stand out fast.

[Aggregated Wisdom @aggwis]

About time that the TVL campaign getting underway...

Took way too long to get this rolling team @autonity_ . Been waiting for this front end to get deployed for ages!

[Leibniz Predicts @LeibnizProtocol]

We are excited to announce a new front end to an AMM based on Uniswap V3 on Autonity that can be accessed at: https://t.co/4mVux15N57

It works with both the Bakerloo testnet and @autonity_ mainnet.

[Argona @Argona0x]

top polymarket traders made $2M+ in 2025

here's how they actually do it

1. copy successful wallets (easiest method)

polymarket leaderboards are public

find wallets with 50%+ win rates and $100k+ profits, copy their trades

allocate 1-5% of your portfolio per copy trade
exit if they lose 2 in a row

expected returns: 20-50% ROI quarterly

2. fade the chaos (intermediate)

when emotional news pumps YES odds 10-20%, bet NO

example: geopolitical strike headlines spike odds, but 90% fizzle out

"nothing ever happens" strategy

buy NO at 70-80¢ on markets that are actually 90-95% certain

wait for time decay or news cycle to die down

3. liquidity provision (passive income)

don't bet on outcomes, just provide liquidity

place limit orders close to market price (1-2¢ spreads)

polymarket pays daily rewards for tight, competitive orders

earn the spread (buy at 49¢, sell at 51¢) plus platform rewards

returns: 4-10% APY on deployed capital

best in high-volume markets (elections, fed rates, sports)

requires $10k-50k capital for meaningful income ($500-5k monthly)

4. cross-market arbitrage

compare polymarket odds to:
→ CME FedWatch for rate predictions
→ polls for election markets
→ another PM for same events

buy undervalued side when spreads are 2-5%

example: YES at 70¢ on polymarket but 85% in polls = edge

5. information edges (advanced)

front-run news by following primary sources

track fed speakers (powell/waller) for rate markets
monitor local sources for international events

news scalping: buy in first 30 seconds of breaking news, sell to retail rush

requires speed and good information sources

highest risk but 50-100%+ returns on edges

key principles:

→ bet 1-5% max per trade (position sizing matters)
→ focus on high-volume markets (better liquidity)
→ study resolution rules carefully (disputes kill profits)
→ track your PnL honestly (85% of retail loses money)

pros win 60-80% of trades by grinding small positive EV

start small ($100-500), learn the platform, scale up

[autonity_ @autonity_]

UERZ25 Final Settlement Value Confirmed 📢

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has released the November 2025 Employment Situation as scheduled on December 16, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

• November 2025 Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): 4.6%
• Source (official BLS release): https://t.co/bT3V4Dp5Xk

In accordance with the previously announced settlement rules, UERZ25 settled at 4.6%, based on the November 2025 UNRATE.

Thank you to all participants for your patience during the extended tradeout period following the government shutdown.

[John Wang @j0hnwang]

prediction markets mindshare is soaring

15x in just 4 months

[Kyle the Writer @KyleDeWriter]

Predict all NO, get 80% winrate on Polymarket.

look at the past yes/no markets of politics, world, economy sector - totally dominating outcome is NO.

nothing in the world is significantly changes, already resolved markets bring the proofs.

take all the markets related to politics, geopolitics, etc. with yes/no outcomes. majority of them resolved to NO.

as a beginner analyst you cannot abstract of human factor, which tells you to purchase on the outcome with largest return.
you start searching for takes in order to back only your personal conviction, which is done in advance.

this result in inability to see the whole situation and information you missed.

I came across top profited traders of this year and I got 1 thing they do steadily for pnl growth:

- do not predict on the markets they don't have knowledge at.
- make conversations with other traders to catch all the takes.
- entry not by rumors, but by conviction.
- no hurry for bindblowing paybacks, tiny 10-50% from each trade.

perfect examples:

Moses - from $1 to $100k pnl
https://t.co/nvgv9Ehsb3

ascetic0x - from $12 to $50k pnl
https://t.co/DIagf96xKe

GreekGamblerPM - from $150 to $13,000 + mercedes cla
https://t.co/Ehjb5qck1F

tsybka - $149k pnl
https://t.co/orqzbrg2YY