Antonio Gil

Ingeniero Civil Industrial Computación - PUC.

[Zy @ZyMazza]

An abliterated top-tier open weights model today can tell you how to build a nuclear weapon. The challenge to building a nuclear weapon isn't knowledge. It's not even really resources.

Iran has knowledge and resources. They can't build one.

Why? A lot of other entities with knowledge and resources have a vested interest in making sure Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon, and they get in their way.

If you wanted to build a nuclear weapon in your basement, to vibecode one with abliterated GLM 5.2, you would find that your efforts are stymied at every turn.

Even with step by step instructions, even if it was good enough at day-trading (it's not) to make you a tidy profit to finance your operations, you would find you would quickly attract the attention of law enforcement and the intelligence community.

It turns out they really don't want you to have a nuclear weapon!

If GLM-5.2 were good enough to tell you how to build a superplague (it's not), you would quickly learn a similar lesson in biology.

It turns out the challenge to building a superplague isnt really knowledge. Just as there are thousands of nuclear physicists with the theoretical knowledge to build nuclear weapons, there are thousands of biologists who have the theoretical knowledge required to make a superplague.

But if they wanted to do it, or if you wanted to, with your abliterated GLM-5.2-Bio-Edition, you would find that you would be stymied at every turn.

First you would design your virus particle or virus-like-particle. You could do this in the computer. But now you need to make it.

Traditionally you would order it from a company like Thermo-Fischer scientific or IDT. They'll synthesize a DNA strand for you and send it back so you can inject it into a cell of your choice to get it to produce the protien you want. For a fee, they'll even get an organism to express it for you and send *that* to you.

But, it turns out they're not stupid. And if you engineer a highly virulent strand of ebola and send it to them, before they help you make that, they're gonna say "hey wait a second, this kind of looks like a highly virulent strand of ebola!"

They will get upset, law enforcement will be contacted, the cops will show up, and so on and so on.

So maybe you'll do it yourself.

You have GLM 5.2-Bio-Edition and GLM 5.2-Trading-Edition so you make a bunch of money to order the expensive, highly specialized equipment you need to do this complex synthesis at home in your basement.

So you go online with your roughly $300k and start trying to order a Mermade DNA synthesizer and assorted sundries and suddenly they're asking all these strange questions like "what's your .edu email" or "what institution are you a part of?" and you don't really have answers to those questions because you're just some guy trying to make a superplague in your basement.

And actually it turns out the Government, intelligence community, and Bio Research technologies company *also* have GLM-5.2-Supply-Risk Edition and so they notice you trying to order all the parts to make a superplague in your basement.

They get very upset and the cops get called and so on and so on.

And *actually* it turned out *everyone* had access to GLM-5.2 Trading edition, so it wasn't so easy to make a killing on the market to finance your operation in the first place because your agent wasn't placing trades against human rubes, but against a whole hoard of *other* agents every bit as intelligent as itself, so the net result is that the market became slightly more efficient, but no one was really able to lock in asymmetrical gains.

Unless, however, *one* person had access to the GLM-5.2-ASI-Edition. Because if that person had access, they would be trading against rubes-by-comparison, and they would make a killing in the market to finance whatever operations they please.

And their ASI would be smarter than anything anyone else had, so it could engineer a VLP that thermo-fischer wouldn't be able to detect and reject on site. Or it would be able to deftly bypass supply chain safeguards, hacking into MIT or something (who has no ASI defender) to get you a .edu email and the appearance of institutional backing.

See, in a world where everyone has ASI, it's as though no one does. It's just normal society, where everyone's wishes and capabilities are mediated by group dynamics, everyone kind of has to stay within the overton window, and deviations are policed largely by the community, and then by the state when need be.

But in a world where only anthropic has ASI, or only openAI, or only the US government, then the *first* bad idea they have is immediately implemented with no resistance, with no hope of stopping it.

And on a long enough timeline, its only a matter of when, not if, they will have a bad idea.

Pluralism has served America well for a long time, and when it comes to ASI, I'm a pluralist too.

[Antonio Gil @agiloreilly]

El que nada hace, nada teme" es un argumento peligroso.

La privacidad no existe para proteger delincuentes; existe para proteger a los ciudadanos. Si mañana el Estado pidiera acceso a nuestros mensajes, correos o ubicación para combatir el crimen, muchos nos opondríamos, y con razón.

Con el secreto bancario ocurre algo similar: cuando hay sospechas fundadas, un juez puede autorizar el acceso a la información. Lo razonable es perseguir a los delincuentes, no debilitar derechos fundamentales de millones de personas que no han cometido ningún delito.

[Antonio Gil @agiloreilly]

Están dispuestos a darle toda la data al estado para parar el narcotráfico? Para eso demos acceso al Estado a todo. Whatsapp, conversaciones telefónicas, acceso a cámaras de nuestras casas. Está perfecto el secreto bancario, tenemos derecho a privacidad. Aparte si hay sospecha puedes pedir una orden judicial, lo que me parece mucho más sano.

[BioBioChile @biobio]

OPINIÓN | Secreto bancario: la intimidad es un derecho, no retrocedamos
https://t.co/zFNQ0Wy7VE

[Balaji @balajis]

It flew under the radar, but China is already opening up visas for tourism (on the mainland) and talent (via Hong Kong).

And factions within the US now want to aggressively move in the other direction, closing themselves off from the world — not just to illegal aliens but to talent and tech and capitalism entirely.

I understand why many want to give up the burdens of empire — I’m not judging, just analyzing.

But I hadn’t thought about China making a play to recruit talent that might have headed to the US in the past.

Russia is the obvious candidate, but Iran, Turkey, and several BRICS countries have strong engineers too.

I mean, it would take a whole lot for the US to fumble the bag on such a level.

But it’s now unfortunately possible.

[Balaji @balajis]

All media became social media.
All money becomes cryptocurrency.

[Cristóbal Valenzuela @c_valenzuelab]

Runway Studios is hiring. We are making movies and looking for industry-leading talent: screenwriters, animators, VFX artists, producers, and unconventional wild cards.

The right fit is someone who deeply understands storytelling and how technology helps deliver art.

https://t.co/Uk9u9wCRR7

[vitalik.eth @VitalikButerin]

This is bad.

Crypto is not just about trading tokens, it's part of a broader ethos of protecting freedom and privacy and keeping power in the hands of the little guy.

And these values unfortunately continue to be under attack, globally.

[Balaji @balajis]

HYPERDEFLATION > SAVINGS > EQUITY > DEBT

In a Bitcoin-backed economy, the hypothetical debt-deflation issues would be avoided by (a) minimizing debt and (b) funding more things with savings and equity as well as (c) leaning into technological hyperdeflation of costs.

To take those points in turn:

1) We have way too much debt in society. At the individual level it’s student loans, 30 year mortgages, credit cards, and even AfterPay. At the state level it’s dysfunctional municipal debt, constant bond issuance, and soaring interest payments.

This world is ending. As Dalio has also discussed, the sovereign debt crises are beginning and the debt deleveraging is coming. Many debts will face hard default because they won’t be paid. Others will experience soft default where a sovereign prints away the debt, satisfying it in nominal but not real terms.

But overall, many who owe money won’t pay, and many who think they are owed money won’t be getting paid. It may be a debt jubilee of a very messy kind, and it’ll mean long-term skepticism towards debt.

2) If you zoom out, many faith traditions from Christianity to Islam to Judaism have had taboos against usury. Yet somehow interest rates have recently been put at the very center of what was once Western civilization, as everyone fixates on the Fed’s rate gyrations.

Of course, you can’t completely remove the concept of interest rates — they are a power user tool to compare different kinds of investments — but you can radically reduce the emphasis on them by prioritizing technological hyperdeflation of cost over savings, savings over equity financing, and equity over debt — in that order.

3) Why put technological hyperdeflation of cost as first priority? Well, in the absence of the Fed monkeying around with things, we should be able to see that the real prices for things decline as technology improves. Eg with better tech we use fewer joules of energy to produce a smartphone or a tomato. So, sharply reducing real costs with tech is the first priority.

4) Why savings over equity as second priority? Well, most things shouldn’t need to be financed with external parties. You just save up and buy them yourself. And don’t buy till you need them. But the focus on technological hyperdeflation means real cost keeps coming down — so savings can be viably used to buy more things.

5) Then why equity over debt as third resort? Equity is how tech does financing and it is good for ambitious things and people. It’s far more tolerant of uncertainty than debt and is more suited to our time of ultra-high volatility. It’s also suitable only for high potential people and projects, as opposed to our current practice of saddling everyone with debt.

6) Finally, debt is an absolute last resort for financing. It will be frowned upon in the next generation after the upcoming debt deleveraging. Debt should just be an extremely uncommon thing, used only by power users in highly certain circumstances.

7) And how do you save at scale then, if governments aren’t issuing bonds? Ideally, you invest in Bitcoin. In practice, for technical reasons not everyone will be able to hold BTC directly, but there will be enough who do that it’ll keep the global economy honest.

Bitcoin is the index asset of the entire technologically hyperdeflating economy. It’s like a combination of gold and Vanguard. It’s a simple “no op” which is valued in every country and which everything else is benchmarked against, as is already happening in the cryptoeconomy.

8) Finally, what about money for innovation? Yes, only really good investments will be worth risking the natural appreciation of your Bitcoin — but a state limited by Bitcoin is also far less able to jack up costs by uselessly NIMBYing new technologies, so the overall ability to innovate will be increased.

The Wild West era where a gold standard coincided with immense American technological innovation is the most obvious historical parallel.

[Javier Milei @JMilei]

https://t.co/wbBPGnhjbO

[vitalik.eth @VitalikButerin]

Make Ethereum cypherpunk again

https://t.co/qEiOcZLEeg

[Francisco Covarrubias @fjcovarru]

Este fact cheking de La Tercera es aterrador respecto de las consecuencias que tendrá el reglamento de los UBER

1- Uno de cada dos socioconductores no podrá seguir conectándose a las apps para generar ingresos
2- “El 88% de los viajes que hoy se hacen en todo Chile ya no estarán disponibles”
3- “En el registro de conductores sólo podrán registrarse conductores con vehículos nuevos”

Esto puede convertirse en un Transantiago: miles de personas sin poder viajar, o viajando a precios más caros. Y miles de desempleados.

[Antonio Gil @agiloreilly]

@mmlagoscc Flujo de caja es diferente a utilidades. Puede haber presiones de caja de proveedores, deudas bancarias en plazos posteriores, inversiones (que no van a gastos), etc

[The Defiant @DefiantNews]

Crypto users are flocking to decentralized protocols in the wake of FTX's CeFi crash 🏃‍♂️💨

DeFi protocols are experiencing double digit increases in users over the past week, according to data from @nansen_ai

@MakerDAO, DeFi's largest protocol, has increased addresses by ~33% 😲

[Sophie Fuji @sophfuji]

Stanford classes this year are really nurturing the crypto founder pipeline

[Antonio Gil @agiloreilly]

@MaraAng24460345 @SoyLaIngo @hernanpass @ministeriosalud @meconomia @subturismo Yo acabo de viajar y eso no es así. Con o sin c19 te vas a demorar más de 2 horas porque todos tienen que hacer la cola

[Crypto Texan @Crypto_Texan]

bear markets are for building, shipping, and partnerships

this is a big one 🤯

[Zion Lights @ziontree]

A strong move for Europe right now would be to reopen its prematurely shut nuclear power plants.