Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy

Teaching world class merchandising and risk skills to producers. Consulting with commodity consumers to understand, measure, and manage risk. Not an advisor

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

My Venezuela experience as head of trading in the region for Cargill.

Cargill was/is the leading producer of critical staple ingredients such as flour, pasta, vegetable oil, and rice in VZ. I am not saying I agree with grabbing the dictator, but I did have a front row seat to the damage a kleptocracy did to innocent people.
1. The government took over our "minute rice" facility at gunpoint because we were "gouging" the nation's poor. The government was never able to run the plant. It never ran again. It was returned years later with no equipment inside
2. There are 1000's of generals in the army. They are each given a slice of the economy to loot. The large number of generals made it difficult to organize a coup against the regime.
3. The government opened grocery stores and sold staples below the cost we sold them to the government. In theory they used petro oil money to lower grocery prices. Our regular grocery outlets were forced out of business. When the government demanded we sell them products below cost we simply had to shut down. The populous became ever more dependent on the government handouts. (PS this is the mayor of New York City's proposal.
4. Dollars- We needed dollars to go buy raw materials like wheat from places like the US and Canada. The government would periodically allocate us some dollars that could only be spent for raw materials and freight. Eventually only the local companies that can and would pay bribes got dollar allocations. We had several facilities closed for lack of raw material
5. My employees liked working for Cargill. The office was an armed compound with access to a gym, high speed internet, global communications, and a weekly box of basic staples. Cargill provided a safe and secure environment if only for the working hours.
6. Employees became very close to others inside the apartment building. Going out on the street with a desperate population was not advisable.
7. I needed wood pallets for feed. We tried to export wood pallets to swap for grain. We refused to pay the bribes it would take to export the pallets
8. I once tried to set up a closed loop wheat planting to flour mill supply chain. A. They came and stole all the seed wheat for food. When we tried to ship in seed wheat in containers via US donors there was no way to get it out of the port without it being stolen
9. Livestock- Our feed business completely collapsed. Even if you could raise a pig, you couldn't defend it from being stolen. People with guns were hungry.
10. Employees- In the end my highly skilled team alone with other highly educated people chose to leave. Cargill often found jobs for them in other Latin countries. The regime was more than happy to see the well-educated leave the country. Setting these employees up with high quality stable jobs after fleeing remains one of the best things I ever did in my career. No one remembers millions in trading earnings.

This is a short list. In my opinion the first money spent needs to happen now and it needs to be food. The US is already on the clock. The current regime does not care if it starves the population. The orgy of theft will actually accelerate if they believe their days are numbered. VZ should be an outstanding customer of US grown ag products. Rice, bread wheat, veg oil ect. Feed the people first.

Jeff Kazin
Former head trading Cargill

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

@1farmbusiness Not hacked

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

Heartbroken to say it, but after years of fighting low margins, weather hits, and now this Iran conflict spiking inputs while crushing export demand... we're bankrupt. Forced to sell the family farm we've poured everything into. Never thought it'd come to this. If anyone knows resources, grants, or ways to help keep even part of it going please DM.

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

@TheVampoor Yes we have solana 5pKHByJYwrdWrKkq6W7C6Zy3nNKV7m6uMBoV4QaBMN4c

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

I had a margin call yesterday. Even I have to remind myself that this is a good thing for my farm. It is human nature to not want to write the "check". I went and updated my Agris Risk Tracker. The mark to market logic embedded in the program made me feel better psychologically. " A clear head makes for better decision making"

[Grains Gorilla @GrainsGorilla]

BREAKING: 🚨🚨🚨🚨

Another first of my 20 year career.

Brazil exporters have gone NO BID. Never seen Brazil origination go NO bid in my life and I don’t think anyone else has.

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

Corn rally:
Prices up BUT spreads widening and most basis weakening, especially the more export oriented it is

Not a very healthy physical assessment of this

Feels basically like we're speculating on crude prices. We'll take it obviously, but buyer and hedger beware.

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

We were allowed to see a Demo of an AI application that will pull basis from posted bids from 100's of locations in the US and Canada. It can also provide history on demand. It will not be long before it will be able to identify correlations all the way to your farm gate. AI will help add transparency to the farm side of the equation.

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

@Farm4ProfitLLC @corteva And don't forget the potential value of an early basis premium for your beans if its a frequent occurrence in your market or, there's something about the prior year telling you there's a high odds of it happening for new crop.

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

@CraigSolberg @AgBullMedia Are u sure. The east had come and snow like we havnt seen in decades. Great Lakes froze over.

Hmm

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

@GoddessofGrain Did you call at 8am? 😀.

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

Basis markets will be "no bid" in many markets in the morning. I would expect corn basis could drop as much as futures have risen tonight. That does not mean do nothing. Futures is a risk management decision. Basis is a calculation. (think like a merchant)

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

@JerodMcDaniel @mmimick Operate without them and really hate your situation. Fewer buyers and less transparency puts farmers at a serious advantage. I made way more money in opaque markets than I ever did trading corn, soya, wheat…

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

Makes you wonder, not that I have an exact answer, when tonight the CME increased oil margin (I get that one) but lowers margin on gold and silver...?

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

In light of the nitrogen discussion I remember the happy days of mid/late 90's Ukraine when they were skimming the hell out of Russian transit gas, "washing it" by converting it to nitrogen, and puking it out of Odessa for export at a less than market price to run the margin through their offshore accounts. A win-win for all!

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

Every day we get closer to planting (or are already planting) the new crop in your farm risk position gets greater. If you do not track your farms futures and basis risk positions, you should.

Balance sheets
Budgets
Income statements
Risk Trackers

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

Every day we get closer to planting (or are already planting) the new crop in your farm risk position gets greater. If you do not track your farms futures and basis risk positions, you should.

Balance sheets
Budgets
Income statements
Risk Trackers

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

@BDUN175 No problem the last two years. If not I will be selling significantly higher basis. Even money truck to river or domestic

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

If I can sell December corn at $4.70 and then merchandise my bags like an elevator I will likely have $5.00 May 2027 corn futures. I will also pick up the basis carry.

It just how a recovering cash trader thinks

[Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy @AgrisAcademy]

If I can sell December corn at $4.70 and then merchandise my bags like an elevator I will likely have $5.00 May 2027 corn futures. I will also pick up the basis carry.

It just how a recovering cash trader thinks