AGMacro

Aim to be the dumbest guy in the room. Love Global Macro, scotch, dogs, bikes and Toronto Raptors. tweets are my own r/t are not endorsements

[AGMacro @AidanGarrib]

@robin_j_brooks The overly simplistic, one factor explanation is not very good analysis. Your chart doesn’t even show relationships. It’s essentially an unsubstantiated talking point with a single unrelated line.

[AGMacro @AidanGarrib]

@m4h007 This is worth a read @qthomp

[AGMacro @AidanGarrib]

@qthomp EMs are already feeling the food prices and next spring you’re going to see the fertilizer shortage bite.

[AGMacro @AidanGarrib]

The unemployment rate for body guards is about to be 100%

[Unitree @UnitreeRobotics]

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[AGMacro @AidanGarrib]

@qthomp Sounds like @robin_j_brooks

[Prof. Steve Keen @ProfSteveKeen]

This is a very good anti-war video.

[AGMacro @AidanGarrib]

@citrini Credit growth is accelerating bigly , govt and private investment in infrastructure and data centers are strong. Banks are rich but lending and improved margins are bullish. Can get #s tomorrow

[AGMacro @AidanGarrib]

@qthomp The election schedule in Europe and support for the bloc (Serbia and Bulgaria) also. Fiscal pressure for subsidies just as fiscal concerns in France move sovereign bonds yields

[AGMacro @AidanGarrib]

Saudi will need more help. And keep an eye on refined product prices (and shortages)

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

It is a VERY bad sign for Saudi Arabia that their initial push in the counteroffensive against Ansar Allah (Houthis) yielded almost no notable strategic gains, and was responded to with Ansar Allah strikes on airports in Riyadh, Abha, Jizan, and Najran, alongside strikes on oil refining in Rabigh.

This is all going very, very wrong for MBS.

[AGMacro @AidanGarrib]

Nominal GDP is a hell of a drug!!

[Forward Guidance @ForwardGuidance]

A 6% 10-year yield isn’t automatically bearish for stocks.

If yields are rising because nominal growth is strong, rather than inflation fears or term premium, equities can stay near all-time highs.

[Forward Guidance @ForwardGuidance]

A 6% 10-year yield isn’t automatically bearish for stocks.

If yields are rising because nominal growth is strong, rather than inflation fears or term premium, equities can stay near all-time highs.

[Forward Guidance @ForwardGuidance]

More German companies are going bankrupt as Europe faces a choice to keep prioritizing inflation and the bond market, or spend more to rebuild its industrial base.

The first risks more bankruptcies, job losses, and political backlash. The second risks higher inflation and borrowing costs. @AidanGarrib

[AGMacro @AidanGarrib]

@dannyrussell53 @fejau_inc Yes. Top of the K holds stocks and bonds. Rates are high AND stocks are at all time highs (and there are balance sheet shenanigans) Policymakers have an incentive to keep it that way.

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

RIP

[Forward Guidance @ForwardGuidance]

“Warsh hates forward guidance until they need to do it.”

A wave of Fed speakers helped push yields lower, but can the data keep them there?

[Grant Toch @Nickelwater209]

@AidanGarrib It was excellent - thank you!

[AGMacro @AidanGarrib]

@Nickelwater209 Happy you found it informative.

[AGMacro @AidanGarrib]

Thanks for have me on gents! It was a great discussion.

[fejau @fejau_inc]

Joined this week by @AidanGarrib

Really good one! Enjoy

[Forward Guidance @ForwardGuidance]

Why take private equity or private credit risk when Treasuries cover your pension’s return target?

Higher yields give pension funds a reason to buy government debt and policymakers need to engineer captive demand for Treasuries. @AidanGarrib

[AGMacro @AidanGarrib]

@QinRan_Poppy @ForwardGuidance @qthomp @fejau_inc It sounds weird. But the ECB has been talking about this (“the reversal rate”) for some time. https://t.co/vX059XaUxI

[Forward Guidance @ForwardGuidance]

NEW ROUNDUP

We Cover:
🔸 AI crowding out everything
🔸 What’s really driving yields?
🔸 Why policymakers need stocks higher
🔸 Can housing survive?
🔸 Europe’s inflation-industry dilemma

@AidanGarrib @qthomp @fejau_inc

TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:38 What’s Really Driving Bond Yields?
08:31 AI Booms While Housing Breaks
14:40 Can The Fed Get Yields Down?
19:23 The Fed’s Inflation Balancing Act
22:42 Can Main Street Survive AI’s Boom?
29:04 Why Policymakers Need Stocks Higher
33:04 Do Rate Hikes Actually Stimulate?
38:13 Engineering Buyers For Government Debt
43:00 Europe’s Inflation Or Industry Dilemma
48:23 Why Europe’s Crisis Keeps Getting Worse