I'm depressed.
I firmly believe Democrats are cheating in the LA mayor's race.
They will keep adding ballots until Spencer Pratt loses.
Someone, DO SOMETHING.
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FROM ONE TO ZERO
There is a scenario in which Silicon Valley could literally go to zero in the next ten years. The successors would be China and the Internet: namely Chinese tech companies and Internet-based crypto protocols, because those have embedded political protection in a way Silicon Valley simply doesn’t.
Here’s why this is possible.
(1) The first and most obvious factor is that wealth seizures are now on the ballot in the most literal sense. The 2026 “Billionaire Act” referendum[1] directly targets the founders of billion dollar tech companies, which is to say that it directly targets the power law, which is to say that it targets the very economic logic of venture capital itself. No prospect of billionaires means no angel funding means no Silicon Valley. And if the first ballot doesn’t land, more referenda are likely to follow, till the ballots hit the target.
(2) The second factor is that while some individuals have realized the threat, and have exited California for places like Texas and Miami (or Dubai and Singapore), many companies still have not. Unless the CEO makes it a priority to rebalance the entire team out of CA to another office, unless they viscerally realize that everything they’re building will be seized if they remain in California, they won’t prioritize it. The very smartest like Elon made this move years ago, but political normies won’t.
(3) That brings me to my third point: the Bay Area tech scene is increasingly selected for political normies. They seem not to understand that companies incorporated in Delaware, listed in New York, and headquartered in California are embedded at three levels of the stack in enemy (which is to say blue) territory. They are still executing an obsolete 2000s-era playbook, which assumes the political platform under their feet will remain stable.
(4) What’s the political platform? It’s a platform just like iOS or Android. In this case, it means the rules tech takes for granted in Washington, California, Delaware, and NYC that enable things like property rights, meritocratic hiring, visas, wire transfers, IPOs, and general rule of law.
Those rules have been eroded over the last decade thanks to the Second American Civil War. A brief list includes: wealth seizures, DEI, remittance taxes, visa bans, abolition of police, tariffs, recission of stock awards (eg in Elon’s case), and punitive anti-tech regulation (especially for AI and crypto under Biden).
(5) Unfortunately, this erosion of propitious conditions for tech now comes from both left and right. For much of the left, tech is white/male/capitalist. For much of the right, it is nonwhite/immigrant/globalist. Tech is now a class enemy for the US left and (to a lesser but real extent) a racial enemy for the right. This is a bad place to be.
(6) This brings me to my next factor: the rise of extreme anti-tech sentiment. Especially for the Democrats, their rage at the Internet for taking away their control over media, money, and speech knows no bounds. Outside X, they hiss and spit daily over AI and crypto. And they are already burning self-driving cars, lighting up Tesla dealerships, and shooting CEOs. It is only a matter of time before more Luigi leftists and Kirk killer types engage in stochastic anti-tech terrorism. Needless to say, this is not something Silicon Valley has budgeted for.
(7) The good news is tech has already largely decentralized. Hardware is in China. Elon is in Texas. Crypto is global. 400+ cities have unicorns. And once we have open AI models that can do what Claude Code does, it’ll be feasible to replicate much of what SV once did. So, progress will continue.
(8) You can already see inklings of this future. Apple couldn’t ship a car, but Xiaomi could, and yet it’s <1/10 the valuation. Similarly, top crypto projects are roughly where tech was in 2010: near $100B, not yet the main event.
So: the anti-tech meteor may not yet have hit the Silicon Valley dinosaurs. But we can see the mammals.
a counter proposal to the "billionaire tax", aka the asset seizure tax, which is gutting the state of hi income tax payers, would be to tax carried interest or tax the use of margin loans. both would solve the revenue goal without driving hi value californians out of the state.
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