A.Ainab

Independent Consultant & analyst on security and conflict in East/Horn of Africa | Interested in Global Conflicts & Politics | view my own RT# Endorsement

[Mushtaq Bilal, PhD @MushtaqBilalPhD]

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[University for Peace @UPEACE]

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[SIDRA Institute @SIDRAInstitute]

Following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, #Somalia received diplomatic support from members of the United Nations Security Council, the European Union, the African Union, the League of Arab States, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), all of whom reaffirmed their commitment to preserving Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity, in accordance with the Somali Constitution and the charters of the African Union and the United Nations.

To date, no other country has followed Israel’s recognition, indicating that despite ongoing geopolitical and political tensions, the prevailing international position continues to support Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity. #SIDRAPublication

Our policy brief, published in March 2026, specifically focused on the implications of this recognition for Somalia’s sovereignty, regional security, and international relations.

Find out more👉https://t.co/amAk8UAuFc

[Mrs M @MrsScotty_M]

Applications for the "Peace and Conflict School," organized by the Istanbul Peace Research Center (IPRC), are now open. The program offers a multi-dimensional understanding of current global crises with the participation of experts and academics.

If you would like to learn about conflict dynamics, peace processes, and strategic solutions from the experts, do not miss the chance to apply for the Peace and Conflict School!

Link

https://t.co/Qp1Bh7AbBZ

[knowledge✍🏾 🌴🦒 @Knowledge_iii]

The 200 nautical miles rule does not apply to Somalia 🇸🇴 the nearest country to Somalia’s coast is India 🇮🇳 which is in completely different continent.

The rule came about after WW2 between Japan and the USA it was a way of bringing peace to Asia.

[A.Ainab @ainab_a]

@RAbdiAnalyst @Habiyexyz

[Bloomberg @business]

Somalian lawmakers failed to elect a new president as the parliament’s current term came to an end on Tuesday, creating fresh uncertainty in the Horn of Africa nation that’s suffered years of political instability https://t.co/kTnnp7566m

[Scholarship for PhD @ScholarshipfPhd]

Letter of Recommendation sample for your PhD & Master’s applications

[Institute of Foreign Affairs - IFA @ifa_ethiopia]

Will Somalia’s federal project consolidate authority, or is it accelerating the very fragmentation it seeks to contain in regions like South West State of Somalia? As local crises evolve into interconnected battlefields shaped by insurgency, political rupture, and external pressures, the line between state-building and state fracture grows increasingly blurred.

Read more here: https://t.co/TVNAQ8mrJP

[Chatham House Africa @AfricaProg]

🚨 | Join @ChathamHouse’s prestigious 10-month, in-person fellowship programme starting in October 2026.

The @Mo_IbrahimFdn Academy Fellowship is open to citizens/dual citizens of any African country.

Apply by 5pm BST on 7 April 2026: https://t.co/kkh2hsTjLZ

[GuledWiliq @GuledWiliq]

🚨Breaking & Intelligence Assessment (March 28 2026)

Summary:
Emerging military intel sources suggests a tactical understanding between Al-Shabaab and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) based on mutual operational interests.

Under this arrangement:

-Al-Shabaab allows access to road corridors leading to Baidoa (Southwest capital).

-In return, the Somalia government enables access toward Ethiopia-border areas, potentially via **Egyptian troop deployment under AUSSOM.

Key Intell Indicators:

1. Al-Shabaab presence in Ethiopia (UN confirmation): The UN Panel of Experts (Nov 2025) confirms Al-Shabaab has embedded networks in Bale, Liben, and Afder zones.
These serve recruitment, logistics, and intelligence functions.

2. Buur Hakaba deployment: Somalia forces deployed to Buur Hakaba (~60 km from Baidoa) with Egyptian intelligence and weapons support (incl. possible drones). In 2025 the Southwest president rejected Egyptian troop deployment in hus region.

3. Afgoye–Buur Hakaba corridor use: First use in over a decade of a route historically under Al-Shabaab control. Suggests tacit coordination or negotiated access.

4. Turkish political and energy influence Somalia is reportedly planning to appoint a former Al-Shabaab figure and current Maritime Minister, described as aligned with Turkish interests. He has been linked to Mogadishu port revenue practices under Albayrak. Turkish support appears tied to securing Afgooye gas project rights and revenue access, in exchange for security assistance (Gorgor units, weapons, reconnaissance) alongside Egypt.

5. Ethiopia–Southwest dynamics: Ethiopia backs Laftagareen (since 2018) but distrusts FGS, citing Al-Shabaab links and regional tensions. Current posture reflects a wait-and-see approachtied to Southwest president re-election.

Assessment & Outlook:

The situation reflects intensifying geopolitical, energy, and strategic competition:

-Egypt seeks military positioning in Southwest Somalia to counter Ethiopia, limit its Red Sea access ambitions, and gain leverage over GERD negotiations.

-Turkey is consolidating influence across security, ports, and energy, centered on the Afgooye corridor and gas interests, while backing aligned political actors.

-Al-Shabaab is evolving into a hybrid negotiating actor, leveraging territorial control to expand influence, including toward Ethiopia-linked corridors.

These dynamics are driving tensions between Southwest State and the FGS, creating conditions for a multi-actor proxy environment. With the UK, EU, and UN calling for restraint and no clear US response, escalation risks are rising.

Regional confrontation is possible if:

-Ethiopia intervenes to support Southwest leadership, or
-The FGS attempts to assert control over Baidoa against local resistance.

[Jack @jackcoder0]

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[Fatima Institute for Global AI Research @fatimafellowshp]

Fatima Institute is now accepting applications for fellows!

Apply now: https://t.co/9xuWqdVDxa

Deadline March 8th 2026

[Hussein Sheikh-Ali @XuseenMacallin]

If you're interested in picking up a copy of “The Idea of a State,” “Aragtida Dawladnimada” you can visit Yaya Centre Bookstop or Nuria Bookstore in Nairobi. They offer both English and Somali versions.

[A.Ainab @ainab_a]

@Habiyexyz

[GuledWiliq @GuledWiliq]

🚨INTEL | Maritime Security & Sanctions Briefing
AIS tracking confirms that SEA ROCK (IMO 9140451)-a vessel sanctioned by U.S. Treasury under E.O. 13902 for transporting Iranian petroleum as part of Tehran’s shadow fleet-called at Mogadishu Anchorage on Feb 7 and remained several days before departure on Feb 11. The vessel is linked to the sanctioned network of Egyptian businessman Hatem Elsaid Farid Ibrahim Sakr and has previously transported Iranian oil products, including via Houthi-controlled ports in Yemen.

If Somali authorities knowingly permitted discharge or servicing of a blocked vessel tied to Iranian petroleum exports, this creates potential secondary sanctions exposure. U.S. policymakers should assess whether Mogadishu Port Authority officials or relevant members of the Hassan Sheikh government facilitated access, clearance, or cargo operations in violation of sanctions enforcement frameworks.
Cc @USTreasury @UnderSecTFI

[GuledWiliq @GuledWiliq]

Here is my investigation report on the demolished WFP storage facility at Mogadishu Port, exposing how Al-Shabaab, Albayrak, and gov corrupt officials captured revenue and destroyed humanitarian aid infrastructure.
https://t.co/Q1Ax0OiXLo

[Mohamed Ibrahim @musewelib]

In the 1970s, the Somali Democratic Republic sent a humanitarian vessel to the central African nation of Equatorial Guinea which was ravaged by drought & famine.
The foreign secretary Omar Arte Qalib was interviewed about the aid ship.
#Africa
#Somalia
#EquatorialGuinea

[The Daily Somalia @TheDailySomalia]

“The Calmiskaad operation showed a model of coordination and local ownership that international partners are now studying for use in other contexts.”

— @SeraGaid, Director of Balqiis Insights

[Dr Oludayo Sokunbi @Oludeewon]

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