Appa Bollera

Chief Transformation Officer @investwithaqua | Took a stab @ building the investment bank for startups | ex-McKinsey, Praxis

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

The Future of Exits is the Private Markets IPO

The Investor Liquidity Event, or ILE, will exist by the end of the decade, and is going to completely reshape capital markets

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

The Death of the $1B IPO and the Stagnation of Small Caps

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

Interesting element of the private markets transition + nature of tech today: capital is increasingly specialized, labor is increasingly fungible

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

@TenreiroDaniel Critical caveat: non quants

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

@justinsliao This is the crux of Triffin dilemma though – do this for long enough, you lose industry, then lose global reserve status

Only works w/o peer competitors; DoD driven industrial policy has operated as a structural counter-weight to this in the reserve-currency era

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

What's funny is, venture & tech really should be more macro driven, particularly wrt to business models + verticals that become more favorable under different macro conditions

The combination of:
- Trade instability
- Reduced immigration (particularly low-skill)
- Aging population
- Supply chain onshoring

Implies that a few very specific kinds of tech platforms & business models (blue collar / healthcare labor marketplaces + robotics-enabled vertical-service-providers) are primed to rip

Venture's thematic cyclicality is a feature not a big, but it's more uncorrelated with macro than it should be

Not a coincidence that FF, the only fund that really understands tech macro well, is investing aggressively here (e.g. Varda, Shinkei, Traba, Workrise)

https://t.co/da5j57FlFS

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

A non-AI macro bet:

Incoming blue collar wage growth is very underpriced by SV (FF maybe the only big fund that gets macro) – humanoid robots won't get good enough fast enough to match the demand surge

Suspect this plays out w/ automation amongst vertical service providers (think @BuildMonumental approach), where your CapEx investment quickly generates operating leverage

Lots of co's in this space, but it's still shockingly underpriced relative to blue collar wage growth

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

@kokoxs The actual deep cut you're looking for

https://t.co/N2foc0yXVh

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

@CamdenKo We really did bet the farm huh?

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

@wquist Race right now to nail the “ratings” equivalent for private markets

Standard Metrics / Sacra are both in the game, but there’s still a lot of greenfield for whomever figures out how to replicate a Moody’s / S&P standards-based-moat before SEC figures out how to regulate

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

@nicochristie Would love to try this

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

@auren Bullish on the tech-enabled rollup model (short-term) as the impetus for the creation of a new asset class (long-term) where M&A platforms are real co's unto themselves

Permanent capital vehicles align CapEx incentives + operations improvement better than 10yr fund structures

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

@GrantHesser @WillManidis yeah (although harder than it seems)

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

@MetacriticCap @Aureliusltd28 Downstream of shift to passive, or are investors just asleep @ the wheel?

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

@luke_metro Overpriced by culture war X underpriced by markets

Many such cases

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

Joe Schumpeter really was right all along

[Polling USA @USA_Polling]

78% of New Yorkers support Mamdani's rent freeze idea

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

@Aureliusltd28 @MetacriticCap thoughts?

https://t.co/hhkjRwff09

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

@hebbia @FlashDocs You guys should acquire / build a think-cell competitor

The main thing professional services employees want for deck creation is structured + formatted outputs for a range of common graphical representations of data

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

@atroyn aging population is the only macro thesis that matters right now

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

@paulswaney3 @carrynointerest cc @nikhilvnamburi

maybe the music really never stops

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

If traditional science funding is a supply-push mechanism, what are the demand-pull equivalents to solve more basic-research style problems?

Advanced Market Commitments are a step in the right direction, is there anything else?

[Appa Bollera @aiyappa__]

Inter-state population in-flows & out-flows are underpriced in an era of secular population aging

The "Long Texas" thesis gets stronger & stronger

[bernoulli_defect @BernoulliDefect]

I have a hunch that the assumption that a white collar career will progress (promotions every few years, management as you get older) is a holdover from the days of triangular population pyramids 1900s-60s and the 60s-2000s sectorial switch from industry to services