AJ Giannone, CFA

Chief Investment Officer at Allio Capital | CFA Charterholder | Expert in Macro-Investing and Portfolio Strategy

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Copper +4% too

[AJ Giannone, CFA @ajnumber90]

📊 This Morning in Macro:
🏗 GDP -0.2 (vs -0.3)
🛒 Cons +1.2 (1.7)
🔥 Deflator +3.7 in line; Core PCE +3.4 (3.5)
💼 Claims 240k (230k); cont 1.919m (1.893m)
⚖️ Take: mild contraction, softer spend, sticky prices, labor cooling.
#markets

[AJ Giannone, CFA @ajnumber90]

Fed’s Goolsbee: “Skip the tariffs and we’re back on track for rate cuts.”

Translation:
Tariffs = inflation ➜ higher rates.
No tariffs = breathing room ➜ easing bias.
Watch trade talks, CPI, & 2-yr yield for the next move.

#Fed #Macro #Rates #Markets

[AJ Giannone, CFA @ajnumber90]

Gold vs SPY - Last 12 Months

Historical outperformance centered around historical macro dislocation.

[Allio @AllioCapital]

🚨 #MacroCalendar Week of May 26th

🇺🇸 #Markets closed Monday, but it’s a jam-packed week:

📊 #DurableGoods, #Consumer Confidence
🛢️ #OPEC+ meets as #WTI slumps
🧠 #FOMC Minutes (Wed)
📈 Q1 #GDP + PCE data (Thurs)
🔥 $NVDA earnings + #Costco
💥 #Inflation, savings, sentiment (Fri)

#Gold & #Bitcoin = 🚀
$AAPL & $NVDA = under pressure
#Trump’s #tariff threats back in play
Will #Fed blink or hold the line?

📖 Read the full breakdown + track key events: https://t.co/IWlA5wsRvk

This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. For more information, visit https://t.co/BfOUxixqhq

[Allio @AllioCapital]

📉 #Macro Wrap-Up: May 23rd, 2025 📈

🗣️ #Fed holds the line
🪙 #LEI points to weak growth
🏦 #T-bill auctions calm
🛍️ #Retail #earnings = mixed
🧾 #Redbook up
🤖 #Google I/O goes heavy on #AI
🏠 #Mortgage rates hit 3-mo highs
📊 #PMIs rebound but prices spike
📉 #Jobless claims dip, but re-hiring lags

📆 See what’s coming next week on the #MacroCalendar 👇
🔗 https://t.co/81kLl28v5t

This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. For more information, visit https://t.co/BfOUxixqhq

[AJ Giannone, CFA @ajnumber90]

US new home sales 🚀 10.9% in April to 743K (vs 692K est) — strongest jump since Aug '22, despite surging mortgage rates.
Big gains in the South (+11.7%) & Midwest (+35.5%).
Median price: $407,200
Inventory: 8.1 months

Housing demand proving resilient.
#Housing #Rates #Macro

[AJ Giannone, CFA @ajnumber90]

📉 US 10Y yield climbs to 4.6%, a 3-month high, as fiscal concerns intensify.

The move follows House passage of Trump’s tax-and-spending bill — projected to add $3.8T to the deficit and raise the debt ceiling by $4T.

Moody’s downgrade, weak Treasury demand, and rising debt...

[AJ Giannone, CFA @ajnumber90]

The dollar index slid to 99.7—its lowest in two weeks—as Moody’s downgrade, fiscal risks, and looming FX talks with Japan & South Korea weigh on sentiment.

Markets are now wondering: is a weaker dollar becoming U.S. policy?

#USD #DXY #macro #fx #currencies #markets #geopolitics

[AJ Giannone, CFA @ajnumber90]

The dollar index dropped 0.7% to 100.1 after Moody’s cut the US credit rating to Aa1 and Trump’s tax cuts advanced in Congress—fueling deficit fears.

Markets now price in 2 Fed cuts this year (Sept & Dec). USD fell sharply vs. EUR and GBP. Fiscal credibility in focus.

[AJ Giannone, CFA @ajnumber90]

Truflation index picking up steam in the last few weeks. Absolute level is still low at ~1.8% annualized but direction of travel and slope is worrying.

[AJ Giannone, CFA @ajnumber90]

US retail sales +0.1% MoM in April vs flat exp, after +1.7% in March.
Gains: food & bev +1.2%, building & garden +0.8%. Drops: sporting goods –2.5%, misc stores –2.1%.
Core ex-food/auto/build mat/gas –0.2% vs +0.3% exp.

[AJ Giannone, CFA @ajnumber90]

Powell says the Fed’s 2020 policy framework is under review as the economy has changed. More frequent supply shocks could make inflation more volatile & price stability harder. Anchored inflation expectations have underpinned long expansions, and the 2% target stays firm.

[AJ Giannone, CFA @ajnumber90]

Riyadh is scaling AI: chips, datacenters, robotics, autonomy.

This isn’t just about $NVDA — it’s about where sovereign capital is going.

A global macro lens is essential to front-run the next cycle.

Watch $PLTR $MSFT $TSLA $AMZN — this is just starting.

[AJ Giannone, CFA @ajnumber90]

Most “experts” didn’t see inflation coming.
Missed the rate shock.
Chased AI after the 100% rally.
Listening to consensus is often worse than useless — it’s delayed, crowded, and conflicted.
Independent thinking > expert opinion.
Price > narrative.

Bet accordingly.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Jim Cramer Remains Undefeated 🫡

His "Black Monday" warning occurred at the EXACT time that the Stock Market bottomed. S&P 500 is now in a bull market 🥳

[AJ Giannone, CFA @ajnumber90]

WTI crude slid to $63.20, ending a 4-day rally 📉

• US crude stockpiles rose +3.45M (EIA)
• Demand worries ahead of summer driving
• OPEC cut '25 non-member supply forecast
• OPEC+ output up just +25K in April (vs. +138K target)

Eyes now on June 1 meeting

#Oil #Macro

[AJ Giannone, CFA @ajnumber90]

April CPI came in soft:
+0.2% MoM (vs +0.3%)
Core: +0.2% MoM (vs +0.3%)
YoY: 2.3% headline, 2.8% core
Trend intact — but the Fed won’t move yet.
Tariff noise muddies the signal. Labor market still firm.
Cuts need clarity. This isn’t it (yet).
#CPI #Fed #inflation #macro #rates

[AJ Giannone, CFA @ajnumber90]

Check out my latest article: Exploring the Relationship Between VIX Levels and Forward S&P 500 Returns https://t.co/tTp3exR5lg via @LinkedIn

[AJ Giannone, CFA @ajnumber90]

Check out my latest article: Market Commentary - April 4th 2025 https://t.co/ReFl6BuIIP via @LinkedIn

[AJ Giannone, CFA @ajnumber90]

Check out my latest article: Navigating the Impact: Negative Earnings Revisions and Future Stock Returns https://t.co/EgBmGopVf2 via @LinkedIn