Alexander Franke 

Interested in climate and transport policy, especially urban mobility, energy transitions, digitalization et al. Working for @BMWK. Views are my own.

[Alexander Franke  @al_f]

Erste Jahrhundertflut, zweite Jahrhundertflut, dritte Jahrhundertflut, vierte Jahrhundertflut.

Das wird ein langes Jahrhundert. #Klimakatastrophe

[Sander Tordoir @SanderTordoir]

German auto summit tomorrow. The sole focus on a combustion engine phase-out 10 years away is baffling because German cars have a demand problem today.

Berlin worries an EV subsidy scheme would be fiscally expensive. But demand-side support is a fiscal no-brainer here.

1/

[Alexander Franke  @al_f]

"We're all trying to find the guy who did this."

[SpaceXAI @SpaceXAI]

We want to update you on an incident that happened with our Grok response bot on X yesterday.

What happened:
On May 14 at approximately 3:15 AM PST, an unauthorized modification was made to the Grok response bot's prompt on X. This change, which directed Grok to provide a specific response on a political topic, violated xAI's internal policies and core values. We have conducted a thorough investigation and are implementing measures to enhance Grok's transparency and reliability.

What we’re going to do next:
- Starting now, we are publishing our Grok system prompts openly on GitHub. The public will be able to review them and give feedback to every prompt change that we make to Grok. We hope this can help strengthen your trust in Grok as a truth-seeking AI.
- Our existing code review process for prompt changes was circumvented in this incident. We will put in place additional checks and measures to ensure that xAI employees can't modify the prompt without review.
- We’re putting in place a 24/7 monitoring team to respond to incidents with Grok’s answers that are not caught by automated systems, so we can respond faster if all other measures fail.

[Derek Thompson @DKThomp]

A lot of folks want to argue for a future-world that doesn't yet exist, in which the Trump tariffs guide us to a perfect equilibrium for US growth. But the tariff plan announced yesterday does exist. We can read it. It does not make sense and is not defensible on its own terms.

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

To illustrate just how nonsensically these tariffs were calculated, take the example of Lesotho, one of the poorest countries in Africa with just $2.4 billion in annual GDP, which is being struck with a 50% tariff rate under the Trump plan, the highest rate among all countries on the list.

Why? Does Lesotho apply extortionate tariffs on U.S. products and the U.S. is merely being "reciprocal" here? Not at all, despite what Trump is saying, it's NOT the way these tariffs are defined.

As a matter of fact Lesotho, as a member of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), applies the common external tariff structure established by this regional trade bloc.

Which means it applies the same tariffs on U.S. products as South Africa does, as well as the 3 other members of the bloc: Namibia, Eswatini and Botswana.

So since the tariffs charged by these 5 countries on U.S. products are exactly the same, they must all be struck with a 50% tariff rate by the U.S., right? Not at all: South Africa is getting 30%, Namibia 21%, Botswana 37% and Eswatini just 10%, the lowest rate possible among all countries.

So what gives? Again, the way these tariffs are calculated has absolutely zero relationship with actual tariffs imposed by these countries on U.S. products. Instead, they appear to be simply derived from trade deficit calculations.

Looking at Lesotho specifically, every year the U.S. imports approximately $236 million in goods from Lesotho (primarily diamonds, textiles and apparel) while exporting only about $7 million worth of goods to Lesotho (https://t.co/uHvem6nH2o).

Why do they export so little? Again this is an extremely poor country where 56.2% of the population lives with less than $3.65 a day (https://t.co/GEho8xFjAp), i.e. $1,300 a year. They simply can't afford U.S. products, no-one is going to buy an iPhone or a Tesla on that sort of income...

The way the tariffs are ACTUALLY calculated appears to be based on a simplistic and economically senseless formula: you take the trade deficit the U.S. has with a country, divide it by that country's exports to the U.S and declare this - falsely - "the tariff they charge on the U.S."

And then as Trump did in his speech last night, you magnanimously declare that you'll only "reciprocate" by charging half that "tariff" on them.

As such, for Lesotho, the calculation goes like this: ($236M - $7M)/$235M = 97%. That's the "tariff" Lesotho is deemed to charge this U.S. and half of that, i.e. roughly 50% is what the U.S. "reciprocates" with.

It's extremely easy to see why this makes no sense at all.

First of all, there's nothing Lesotho can do about it: they can't change tariffs they allegedly charge the U.S. to reduce the tariff rate the U.S. "reciprocates" with because, again, it's NOT based on any tariff that they charge.

Similarly they can't do much about reducing the trade deficit they have with the U.S. because, again, they simply don't have enough money to buy U.S. products.

Also the main rational Trump gave for the tariffs is to get production back to the U.S., to "bring manufacturing back". 47.3% of Lesotho's exports are diamonds: how do you bring the "manufacturing" of that "back to the U.S."? Anyone can see it makes just about zero sense.

The Lesotho example exposes the fundamental economic incoherence of these tariffs. Rather than addressing actual trade barriers, they punish countries based on trade deficits that arise from structural economic realities. All the more countries like Lesotho which pose zero competitive threat to American industry.

Worse yet, these tariffs will likely make these structural realities even worse: the U.S. is Lesotho's second most important export destination so it's a fair bet that applying 50% tariffs on their products will make people in Lesotho even poorer, and therefore even LESS able to afford U.S. products.

But perhaps the most unfair and detrimental aspect of all this is that these tariffs represent a complete reversal of longstanding U.S. development policy, and therefore a betrayal of countries - like Lesotho - who chose to follow U.S. advice in the past.

For decades the U.S. has used preferential trade access to encourage economic development in the world's poorest nations, recognizing that trade, not just aid, could get them out of poverty and ultimately put them in a position where they too could afford iPhones or Tesla.

They're now effectively penalizing countries for following previous U.S. policy, a lesson which I bet they won't forget anytime soon.

So all in all the irony is painful: in the name of fighting unfair trade, America has just demonstrated what truly unfair trade looks like.

This isn't something designed to address genuine trade issues, but simply a mechanism based on arbitrary math to punish countries for the affront of selling more to the United States than they buy.

[James Surowiecki @JamesSurowiecki]

Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.

So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is.

[Alexander Franke  @al_f]

So the varying VATs of EU member states are seen as a tariff of 39% to US goods. Disregarding the fact that VATs do not discriminate between goods produced in EU/US so are not in fact tariffs...

The UK has a VAT of 20% yet Trump regards it as a 10% tariff?

Make it make sense.

[Alexander Franke  @al_f]

@SBahnBerlin Leider gibt es keinerlei Echtzeitinformationen - die Informationen in DB Navigator, in VBB- und BVG-Apps spiegeln alle den Fahrplan provisorischen wider, aber nicht die realen Ausfälle und Verspätungen. Wird das in den nächsten Tagen kundenfreundlicher?

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

BREAKING NEWS: Obama has just made a trade with Russia. They get Florida, California & our gold supply. We get borscht & a bottle of vodka.

[Alexander Franke  @al_f]

Carl Schmitt, 1.8.1934:
"Der Führer schützt das Recht vor dem schlimmsten Mißbrauch, wenn er im Augenblick der Gefahr kraft seines Führertums als oberster Gerichtsherr unmittelbar Recht schafft."

Historischer Ausgang bekannt.

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

He who saves his Country does not violate any Law.

[Alexander Franke  @al_f]

Drain the swamp.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

*TRUMP SET TO EASE ENFORCEMENT OF LAW THAT BANS OVERSEAS BRIBES

[Alexander Franke  @al_f]

@AVM_INTL Will this update also be ported to the similar Fritzbox 6490? Thank you!

[klimareporter° @Klimareport]

Bei Bussen im öffentlichen Nahverkehr setzt sich der Batterieantrieb durch. Er bringt auch bei dem heutigen Strommix schon einen Klimavorteil. Von Wasserstoffbussen halten Verkehrsunternehmen und Hersteller dagegen eher wenig. https://t.co/ymbpAu289H

[Evelina Stoikou @EvelinaStoikou]

The results from @BloombergNEF 's 2024 lithium-ion battery price survey are out. Lithium-ion battery pack prices dropped 20% from 2023 to a record low of $115 per kilowatt-hour. This is the largest decline observed in our survey since 2017. 🧵⬇️

[Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63]

The ability of demagogues & autocrats to surprise, to create a new scandal every day, is their superpower. It diminishes attention to the previous day's transgressions & normalizes them. It slowly numbs the senses, including outrage. Values are the only defense. Hold them dear.

[Alexander Franke  @al_f]

Was the DNC 2024 the most politicised Eurovision ever?

[Colin @ufcolin]

the european mind cannot comprehend lil jon doing georgia's roll call

[Sepp Reitberger @sepp_reitberger]

1/ @ADAC Mich macht das richtig zornig: was soll das, an #HVO100 irgendwelche Nachkommastellen bei Ruß- und NOx-Emissionen zu messen? Die Frage ist, wo die Rohstoffe herkommen. https://t.co/WRPyYqWomO

[Alexander Franke  @al_f]

Ich hatte die @cduberlin vor der Wahl eigentlich so verstanden, dass sie Verkehrspolitik gerade nicht nur für die Menschen im Ring machen wollte. Stattdessen sollte es um attraktive Mobilitätangebote auch für die Vorortbewohner und Pendler gehen. Und nun?

[Christian Latz @ChristianLatz_]

Der Berliner Senat stoppt fast alle Radschnellwege. Gebaut werden soll vorerst nur die Route nach Wannsee. Berlins Haushaltskrise klingt immer abstrakt, jetzt sieht man, was auf die Stadt in den nächsten Jahren zukommt. https://t.co/bsl0157aMA

[Giulio Mattioli @giulio_mattioli]

Germany has a goal of 15 million electric vehicles on the road by 2030.

This analysis by @agoraverkehr finds that it will miss that target, unless it changes its policy course. https://t.co/Di1fD0xDfx