Sereinity

Not investment advice, DYODD. Sharing personal thought process on supply chain bottlenecks.

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[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Wow, $WULF signs a $19B DC lease with Anthropic today.

Probably a very positive tailwind for the Neocloud/Colo sector.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Retail: buys memory, optical, upstream semi names.

Media: “retail bubble drives AI meme stock bubble higher”.

Institutions that do the exact same thing, with the exact same names:

Media: “Institutions make record profits by betting on what goes inside AI Server Racks”.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I find it hard for any bears to defend against this humanoid bull case.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Kelper upgrades $XFAB to "Buy" citing:

- Melexis demand strengthening “week-after-week, day-after-day” (their lead customer).
- AI giving XFAB a structural growth leg with SiC, GaN, and photonics offsetting auto cyclicality.
- Scarce Western speciality foundries like $SILEX commanding higher multiples.

"X-Fab remains the cheapest specialty foundry peer on every multiple, trading at 4.8x 2027 EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 14.5x"

I treat this as good signal for the core fundamentals improving like auto players.

But in terms of unpriced long term growth vectors, I'm personally looking at XFAB from a different angle in terms of photonics growth with photonixfab. Given $NVDA as a potential key driver.

But it's hard for traditional firms to price these types of active developments into valuation models until there's volume contracts.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I personally think $SIVE can be the next $LITE.

In the past few months alone, we've seen:

1. Partnerships with O-Net pushing ELS into mass production
2. $JBL 1.6T LRO mass production signals with "relatively dramatic moats" for pluggables using Sivers.
3. $GFS SCALE reference level laser for hyperscalers with pluggable, NPO, CPO.
-> -> where $AMD and others went to GFS for CPO.
4. Ayar, which joined $NVDA NVLink for CPO
-> -> which removed Lumentum/Macom from their website and likely made Sivers their primary laser supplier.
-> -> AlChip likely Trainium win from Amazon price placement (Ayar's customer)
-> -> GUC rack level design in with Ayar.
-> -> Raised $500m for mass production by AMD, Alchip, Mediatek, and NVIDIA
5. ~ $AEVA starting HVM H2 2026.
6. $POET starting HVM H2 2026 with hyperscaler suppliers like Lumilens ("top 3 hyperscaler initial customer")
7. TFLN + $SIVE CW Lasers with Lightium
8. Likely direct relationships with $MRVL Celestial and CPO players like Lightelligence/Lightmatter.
9. Multiple new undisclosed relationships for pluggables following Jabil in their quarterly transcripts

With new Trendforce reports that $AMD and other hyperscalers are trying to source LTAs for CW laser sources, serving as a direct catalyst for independent CW sources.

So when hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil to O-Net are incentivized to mass produce as many as they can: That's very material for revenue for Sivers relative to current valuations, and it looks like just a waiting game.

Even in the past week:

- $SIVE raised an oversubscribed institutional round for volume ramp... This is very nuanced since Sivers is fab-lite so it's not going to in-house foundry capex to scale. Likely toward Win Semi and others (they mentioned other partners too), for laser scaling + foundry allocations.

So this is likely signaling material for revenue ramp is coming.

- Sivers also mentioned NASDAQ listing completion targeted in the next few quarters (probably H2 2026 or Q1 2027 is my est. timeframe).

This would fund M&A efforts, since it's impossible with the fundraising environments in local Swedish markets.

As for becoming the next $LITE:

M&A makes their lasers more valuable, so downstream IP acqusition -> into contract manufacturing like $FN, and others to make the full 1.6T pluggable or optical engines. Is how they get there, since laser array ASP scaling that people are modeling off of, wouldn't command a $60B+ valuations.

There's going to be a lot of bridge architectures like NPO/pluggables, etc and noise around certain architectural delays in the meantime.

But markets misunderstand laser companies like $LITE, $SIVE, $AAOI and others are used across different architectures compared to if you just look at certain passive optical components.

So markets see "CPO delay headlines" algos sell off laser companies that benefit from other architectures.

Being included in the pluggable 1.6T ramp to CPO scale out (Which Sivers is included in), helps bridge revenue waiting gaps until scale up inflection point H2 2027.

I'm personally holding long term, since I haven't seen a ~$1.4B company mapping to this many hyperscalers before.

TLDR:
- Waiting on volume ramps from different architectures to play out across their hyperscaler supplier mapping
-> 1.6T LRO/CPO scale out late H2 2026 start into high volume ramp 2027
-> H2 2027 CPO scale up volume ramp
- Waiting on NASDAQ listing likely H2 2026/Q1 2027 for M&A efforts to fully take off, unless Sivers get more creative with equity financing in the meantime.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Nomura’s report cites $AXTI and $IQE as the leading players.

Then regarding ASP updates:

- 2in InP substrate price hike 42-76%
- 3in InP substrates price hike 78%
- 2in EML Epiwafer price hike 50-75%
- 3in CW Epiwafer price hike ~40%+
- Prices lower domestically in China as expected.

Hyperscalers bottlenecking upstream photonics confirmation validation… on all fronts from pricing, demand, to supply shortages.

My personal expectation was that price hikes would keep going up like $SNDK given ramping optical demand.

We’ll see if this turns out right given another 2 years of the demand curve.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Came across an interesting report from SVRC Research called "State of Robotics 2026", published in April.

Which listed:

1. Figure AI
2. Agility Robotics $CCXI
3. Apptronik
4. $TSLA
5. Boston Dynamics
6. Physical Intelligence
7. 1X Technologies
8. $AMZN Robotics
9. Covariant
10. Skild AI

As the National Champions of the United States robotics program.

"The United States leads the world in where robotics is heading: Fundation models, OpenAI-style scaling laws applied to action, autonomous vehicles.

While losing the race on where robotics is shipping today."

Then it frames:

1. Rare Earths Exposure: from Neodymium for motors to samarium-cobalt for high-temp applications as a critical vulnerability.

2. Actuator dependency. Series elastic actuators, quasi-direct-drive motors, and precision reducers overwhelmingly sourced from Japan, Germany, and China

As one of the main vulnerabilities alongside Manufacturing velocity/data collection cost/regulations. Then their take was:

"With at least six well-funded US humanoid companies competing for a market still in early formation, we expect at least two significant consolidation events (acquisition or merger) in 2027".

With Logistics / E-commerce (like $AMZN / $FDX) and Automotive from $GM to $FORD as being the immediate top use cases for deployment.

I think it's just interesting to see a lot of my points I've been talking about reiterated by research firms. Regardless, I do think it's going to be a major frontier race between the US and China.

Agility Robotics (which I own), Tesla, Figure, and Apptronik as leaders representing the USA. Competing against Unitree, AGIbot, Ubtech, and others in China.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just some consolidated updates on memory:

- $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized.

- Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $SNDK / Kioxia type players are happy alongisde $SIMO and upstream.

- MS remains especially positive on Macronix/Winbond

- UBS expects the average price of DDR contracts in the Q3 2026 to increase 32% | 18% Q4, vs. 17% and 12% est.

- UBS expects NAND flash to be raised 30% from prev quarter.

- Samsung reportedly plans 20% DRAM hike Q3. TrendForce recently forecast DRAM contract prices to rise 13 to 18 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, so this hike beats expectations.

Something to note:

Lot people see 20%... and don't think it's a lot compared to the 70-80% from previous quarters.

But if you hike something by 100%, then hike something by 100%, then hike something by 30%, it's a lot more than people estimate since it's compounded. Similar to tracking inflation.

I've already made projections going into 2028 from the start of the year on my memory names...

I'm just sitting back and watching things play out through all the "memory optimization" and "they can't keep price hiking like this!" noise.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Looks like there's a high power cylindrical cell / BBU cell shortage (aka: bottleneck):

- Samsung SDI supplies the cells to Simplo, which assembles them into BBUs for $META to $AMZN.
- As demand from data centers has increased, production of Samsung SDI's cylindrical cells has also risen sharply.
- Industry sources said Panasonic, Samsung are experiencing supply shortages for BBU cells.

So main beneficiaries imo look like:

- Samsung SDI (KRX: 006400) / Panasonic Energy as cleaneset winners
- Murata (6981) / this keeps showing up everywhere with MLCC and others lol
- LG Energy (KRX: 373220) / incoming

There's not really much direct US players? But adjacent read through like $VRT, $ETN or $BWA / $ENS. Not quite in my domain emphasis cup of tea though.

I wouldn't conflate this as all shortages having a massive TAM, but there could be opportunities...

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Leaked Anthropic docs show plans to secure 1.4GW capacity from Australia, amounting to ~$21.6B.

Recently $IREN, $SHAZ, and other Neoclouds have been building sovereign DCs in Australia.

Guess like a lot of things are stating to make more sense connection wise?

(disclosure: no open positions in any of the above).

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Nikkei - $JD E-Commerce Giant CEO warns "Robots Will Replace 700,000 Delivery Workers".

Per FT's earlier piece last month: The 700,000 delivery personnel working for the firm will be replaced by robots, highlighting how rapid automation has become a new threat to China's already severe job market.

Liu Qiangdong, revealed that the company has signed contracts with approximately 120 schools to retrain its delivery workers, enabling them to transition into new roles such as robot repair and maintenance...

"Beijing has started to track AI’s hit to jobs as a national priority."

This follows other corporate strategy reports like $AMZN, of avoiding 600,000 future hires with robots.

But it's very interesting to see the shift in worker roles to robot support. Maybe $DASH to $UBER to $MELI, we'll all start to see this rollout following China.

There's a lot of retail disbelief over humanoid/robotics commercialization. But feels like the direction industry is heading down is pretty clear.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

UDN Money report "殺翻光通訊後 SemiAnalysis 惹議 業界揭其劣跡 許多公司慘遭魔手":

- SemiAnalysis, released a report in June, questioning the timing of the launch of the CPO on the grounds of low yield and delay, which caused the photonics sector to collapse.

- The agency then partnered with Tema to launch a photonics ETF.

- The shares held in the ETF under the trading code LAZR happened to be the photonics stocks that were mentioned negatively in the report

$HIMX and $LITE, which were specifically targeted negatively in their article "Powered Down, Lights Off", have been bought in Semianalysis and Tema's new ETF after the optical sector crash.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Bruh, when I first tried out ChatGPT around 2023, I thought it LLMs were garbage at coding.

3Y later, Mythos is considered a modern day “nuke” for cybersecurity.

People keep saying humanoids can’t do X or Y task today like plumbing or DC wiring. No sht, but it’s about where things are heading over the few years.

And it’s clear to me and VC apparently that we’ve just hit the inflection point where soon: majority of labor you think is human-only, can be replaced by robotics/humanoids.

You're already seeing this too with internal strategies: Remember $AMZN leaked strat planned to avoid hiring 600,000 workers by them with robots like $CCXI?

If you see past the "assistive robotics" public image framing to prevent protest, it's clear the goals is maximizing, opex efficiency.

The main areas I think are safe however are regulation bound (eg. Medicine), ultra specialized labor, or require human/emotional connections.

But I think you'll be blown away by the rate of change when frontier technologies become national security races between US and China... especially when China is currently in the lead.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

TIL floating DC and ocean compute exists?

Apparently it’s free cooling + optimal for places in tight geography…

It’s going to be wild taking a cruise ship, and passing by a bunch of $NBIS or Samsung floating AI DCs one day.

If this ever becomes a thing like orbital compute?

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I'm bearish on humans.

Hard to see people still having a job if humanoids come out at <$15K mass production.

No insurance, no JP Morgan HR cannon scandals.

And can do everything a person can, but better + 24/7.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just some public market read through from Chinese private VC markets:

Institutions are pouring funds into physical AI and world models.

1. Large models / LLMs: ~$23.56B
2. AI infrastructure + technical layer: ~$15.74B
3. Embodied intelligence / physical AI: ~$13.36B
4. AIGC applications: ~$8.79B
5. Autonomous driving + other Top-20 cluster: ~$3.82B, but not apples-to-apples with the above.

Some notes:
- "Early-stage pure foundation-model funding is basically closed".
Looks like more funding is just being put into existing leaders and going into World Model companies. My guess is that we'll likely see the same in the US with Anthorpic/OpenAI consolidation.

- "World models have become the biggest consensus in early-stage investment."

I said months ago 4D AI/World Models would be the most interesting moving forward, and called out $AEVA as potential exposure. But there's not exactly any pure play exposure. But probably next we'll wait for the next IPOs here in this sector maybe H1 next year.

- AIGC application sector is the most mature for AI technology commercialization

"Artificial Intelligence Generated Content commercialization is mature but no clear winner yet".

Makes sense. in the US there's stuff like Grok Imagine, Google Nano Banana, etc. no clear winner too. especially for video.

_

TLDR: Continued funding into AI infrastructure/semiconductor supply chains. Huge capital rotation influx into physical AI / embodied brain / humanoids + world models from capital inflow.

Consolidation around leading frontier model companies.

Personally just validated what I've been focusing on with Agility Robotics and physical AI players (eg. leaderdrive, harmonic, etc) in public markets...

As new potential opportunities in terms of capital rotation. But sadly no world model pure play exposure yet.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

So positive readthrough on the upstream glass substrate supply chain:

- Sumitomo Chemical and Samsung Electro-Mechanics formally establish JV in Korea within the year to handle the glass core substrate business (GlaSSEM).

Main thing was timeline/funding was finalized: "full scale commercialization targeted H2 2027" for the Samsung/Dongwoo JV / KRW 482.1B planned capital.

Think the "full scale commercialization" is the word to highlight, since that would imply timeline moving faster than expected than starting ramp or early production H2 2027.

So... TGV/LIDE with $LPK (that I own)/E&R and Onto in terms of yields are just some examples of possible sector beneficiaries.

Since companies like LPK stated in the past: “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment” and targeted "70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp".

These players also typically have revenue pulled forward, since equipment orders during capex cycle hit before actual ramp.

Regardless, just an update on developments.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Be SemiAnalysis:

- Post a scathing piece on CPO delays + optical company valuations, causing a crash.

Which $NVDA, analyst desks, and major optical companies refuted

- Launch an institutional photonics ETF after optical names dropped 40-60%.

[Rand Paul @RandPaul]

Next week I’m holding a hearing with a whistleblower who will testify publicly about the COVID coverup.

Mark your calendars: Wednesday, May 13 at 10am.

The truth is coming.

[Rand Paul @RandPaul]

Proud to receive an A rating from @CR on their Liberty Scorecard, especially when 30% of GOP senators received an F.

There is no grading on a curve when it comes to the Constitution, individual liberty, and free markets. I will never stop fighting for liberty.