Serenity COMMENTARY

Al/Semi Supply Chain Analyst

Not investment advice, DYODD. Now publishing free research on Al chokepoints.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

That’s a misconception:

$SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up.

Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc.

- Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers.

Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and even made things more power efficient.

From quotes from Jabil management they created a “relatively dramatic moat”.

So for the next gen of 1.6T pluggable transceivers, Sivers seems immediately used.

Markets missed this nuance too: after Jabil’s announcement, other pluggable players reached out, and SIVE is working with them now (prob codevelopment, qualification stage).

There’s not too many players that build optical transceivers that aren’t vertically integrated like Lumentum (think: Innolight/eoptolink, and maybe others).

So these are active developments, just not public material yet and could be a new press release anytime.

- for CPO scale out which happens H2 2026 onward like $POET, $SIVE is a laser supplier for those players.

- scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia’a NVLink CPO ecosystem and that’s the main volume ramp across optical players.

But this is where $SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping.

Since they’ve likely been working + designed in with $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when.

On top of things like this:

For foundries like $GFS, $SIVE is the reference laser.

Not even including massive companies like O-Net building ELS with $SIVE, likely for the Asian hyperscalers supply chains.

This is why $SIVE is by far my favorite laser chokepoint long.

Feels like they’re everywhere in new optical architectures starting beginning of 2027.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I've been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently.

Here's my research/thoughts so far on it:

They're a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI.

And they've become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR, $LITE, Mitsubishi, Source, Sumitomo), with scarce 100G EML laser capacity for 800G/1.6T.

OE appears to be trying to make the full transceiver, not just the EML. They also have finished ELSFP CPO products, with UHP CW lasers, which is sampling Q3.

Likewise, OE also seems to be building out the full ELSFP, rather than selling CW laser dies, so that's more market share.

So you can think of it as Korean AAOI but EML instead of CW, and less capacity/qualifications. And playing catch-up to the rest of the world.

However in terms of timelines:

1. 23dBm cooled ELSFP samples start in Q3 2026
2. Sales base for 800G, and 2027 1.6T "full force"
3. Late H2 2027, H1 2028 onward probably their ELSFP enters the volume production.

And it seems they're working on 200G EML capability from their investor snipper 2025 OE IR snippet referenced “100GBaud EML / 200G PAM". This seems promising given their IP/demos.

ELS has just been unveiled recently, sampling starts Q3. 800G/1.6T Optical transceivers are also likely 2027.

So this is basically Korea's sovereign photonics player, playing catchup to $LITE, $AAOI, and the bigger players.

(Disclosure: I have positions in OE Solutions (138080). This is fundamental research for informational purposes, not financial advice).

As for OE solution valuations:

1. Doesn't seem like there's confirmed customers yet for these growth verticals.
2. Probably not many people understood what they're building toward yet.
3. Yields data kinda uncertain

1. Customers: We're actually in a major EML/CW laser shortage, so any independent capacity will be sought after. I personally don't think they'll have a hard time finding customers here. I would assume anything they make might get bought out and would get extra support from Korea.

2. Institutional support: Probably not much since it doesn't meet threshold for many US institution given MC size + KR listing. I also don't think many people understood what they're building yet.

3. Yields/Capacity: OE's disclosed wafer/module utilization is low (i remember was around 31% underutilized off the top of my head), so there's enough material revenue they can generate before they need to spend on capex.

I'm also not sure about EML/CW and other yields. Probably need to go ask the company.

Is this some random crap co? No. It's been doing optical transceivers stuff for more than 20Y, has R&D in the U.S. and Netherlands.

But their entire AI growth vertical seems to happen next year, and hinges mainly around capacity/yields.

And I personally think the EML/CW tech is probably worth a lot more than their current MC, if it were an acquisition target.

Especially from a larger player that wanted to vertically integrate EML for pluggables and CW lasers for CPO.

Markets are probably waiting on more certainty around qualifications after Q3 sampling or earnings projections announcements.

TLDR on thoughts:

Some of my friends discussed this last year, was probably way too early. Saw it got many comments 2 months ago, still too early.

I still think now is early, but later in Q3-Q4 might be more interesting. I personally think it's a lot higher risk than a major CPO player like $SIVE, that's embedded in Ayar, $JBL, $GFS, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. Which also has Win Semi and others de-risking volume ramp.

As OE Solutions looks like a new player trying to build out an $AAOI for the optical transceivers but sovereign EML and CW laser production for CPO products.

And there's a lot of answered questions around customers + volume ramp, which presents material risk.

But if you believe Korea can build out an 800G/1.6T transceiver EML supply chain and ELSFP with CW lasers.

With OE Solutions, it might be worth taking a look into. Still researching the company tho, just initial thoughts.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Apparently gym bros are the new hyperscalers.

They’ve created a new bottleneck with whey protein?

Now there’s $SNDK style price hikes.

Maybe creatine is next with shortages.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Well, looks like prediction markets are about to get a ton of extra regulatory scrutiny.

They should also investigate how Polymarket pays influencers for undisclosed paid comments to game the X algorithm.

I get offered deals like this all the time as the most subscribed to person on X.

But as you know, I don’t do paid promotions since I want my research to be without outside influence.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Trump administration is prob realizing now that the key to winning Trade Wars:

Is through frontier supply chains like Quantum, AI, Robotics.

Not cheap Nike sock exports.

With $ASML, $TOWA, $LPK, Ajinomoto,
over in Japan, EU, TW, Korea, and others holding all the cards…

Since each country holds different monopolies and chokepoints needed to make each industry work.

Which all happens to be OUTSIDE the US.

Tariffing all our partners turned out to be not a great idea.

But not too late imo to repair relations and weaponize global supply chains through partners if Trump wants better trade deals.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I think u must be new here.

Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are.

$AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum.

They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later.

$RPI - everyone called it some meme stock.

Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals.

Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”.

Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth.

But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no.

$SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up.

Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason.

But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS.

Same hate with:

- $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady”

- $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble”

- $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock.

- $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells

- $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships”

- $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new

- $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat

- $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM

- $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom.

- $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue

- $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade

Can go on and on…

I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess).

But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again.

And the success in markets drown out the old noise.

Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I’m just posting this since people seem really curious about X’s revenue sharing program.

Genuinely didn’t expect to get seen 100M+ times every 2 weeks!

Would keep doing the same thing tho, even if it were free and I just had a few friends from $RDDT to share ideas with.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

In terms of personal notes:

1. Priortech owns 21% of $CAMT, ~1.35x their MC, seems more like holding co.

2. Bit Digital people kept shouting, but NAV discount is not clean $WYFI, lot of dilution + not AI parent.

3. Wistron (3231) is the best one I've seen since $SIVE + Ayar + Wiwynn are one of my favorite trio.

~$16.2B MC, Q1 revenue up a ridiculous amount with 144% Y/Y growth.

Owns 35.46% of Wiwynn, which is ~0.66x of MC. I'd expect Wiwynn to keep on growing.

4. Sin-American Silicon 5483 does own 46.64% of GlobalWafers (6488).

MC is $3.5B, stake value is ~$7.9B, but not exactly growing too fast independently, though it's heavily trading heavily discount to NAV.

5. Iljin Holdings owns 42.99% of Iljin Electric, it's ~$0.22B MC vs. ~$1.13B NAV holding. This was transformer/cable DC related.

But again idk if I trust korean stocks for NAV unlock, probably better for activist investors.

6. Simmtech Holdings was ~$0.17B MC vs. ~$1.0B of parent, which also looks ridiculous.

So 6x+ NAV. PCB substrate related name. Also another prob don't trust korean governance type name.

I think both $ACMR and WUS have H-Share subsidiary listing soon, and those were the biggest NAV discounts with independent growth.

Then you have a highly successful activist going after WUS so I'd expect some middle ground there.

So maybe I'll put more concentration into those on top of what I already own Monday, we'll see. And Wistron was growing very fast independently.

I'm still doing research, normally this goes in shower thoughts since I haven't formally made a conclusion, but thought others might be interested.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Wow, I completely missed this with $LPK meeting notes.

And I think markets did too. My biggest takeaway:

- NASDAQ listing is actively on their radar and are in discussions.
- 70% market share targeted, unholy target.
- TAM greatly exceeds former projections.
- See a 4-5 base case of players this year with orders.
- Industry is ready for high volume ramps.

I do think LPK is very undervalued based on these discussions (disclosure: own positions).

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Remind me whenever I call out a bottleneck, I should go long myself.

Just floated this idea out around MLCC bottlenecks awhile back.

Taiyo Yuden up 211.38%
$VSH up 146.15%
Murata up 155.43%

Within the last 2 months...

Feels bad.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes!

My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics.

And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE.

However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted:

That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though.

Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility.

As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action).

Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown.

I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD, $META ended up red. $SNAP, I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time.

But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL, $NBIS, $ARM, $INTC, $MU, $LITE, SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap.

Down to $AXTI, $LITE, $AAOI, $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well.

With random stuff like $SIMO, $HPS.A, $TSEM, $AEHR, $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too.

The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD.

But I've definitely missed a few.

Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad.

But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Bernstein is basically the institutional version of Jim Cramer:

Tells retail Kioxia looks like it’s going to crash, gives a -50% PT.

Bunch of retail sells.

Stock proceeds to skyrocket right after, with another +12% today.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

How does China manage to smuggle in something the size of a school bus from $ASML?

Is the real question.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Anyone got a list or ideas of the biggest NAV discounts. But independently has AI growth?

Stuff more extreme end like $ACMR and WUS (2316) compared to SK Square.

Have exposure to the ones above, just wanted to research more opportunities.

Seems to be getting noticed recently

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Trump announced Intel + Apple partnership, sending $INTC up 8% today.

Intel execs were reportedly surprised by the $AAPL announcement by Donald Trump.

TBH, the President should lead Intel's marketing team at this point.

Feel's like he's hard carrying the stock.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just a reminder: 99% of X was bearish on memory 3 months ago...

Since then:

$MU $380 -> $1122 (+195.26%)
$SNDK $565 -> $2155 (+281.42%)
$EWY $132 -> $219 (+65.91%)
SK Hynix 849K -> 2.685M KRW (+215.5%)
Samsung 172K -> 362K KRW (+110.7%)

If you see a bunch of projections on memory names like Samsung becoming the most profitable company in the world in 2028.

Might be a good idea to think independently outside of the narratives at the time like "Oil, LNG, Helium, Iran, etc."

Probably same thing now with optical names and their projections into 2027, 2028.

I do think photonics and memory are the 2 top themes though, with optics being very early into the supercycle.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I think Jim Cramer’s law needs to be studied in history books.

Even $SPCX can’t withstand his blessing.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

非常感谢中文社区对我最看好股票的投资思路进行的深度剖析！

总的来说，像 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 这样的激光公司是我个人的最爱，因为它们在拓展营收方面有着极大的想象空间。它们可以不仅仅局限于销售激光器，还能制造完整的光模块 以及各种光引擎或 ELS (外部光源) 组件。

又或者像 $COHR 那样，甚至可以向上游延伸进军衬底制造领域，从而实现垂直整合，并不断提升自身的毛利率和总潜在市场规模 TAM

这其中很大一部分的关键在于要率先精准踩中投资主线，毕竟去年很多人甚至都不觉得“光子学（photonics）”能成为一个真正的热门概念。

而且我认为最会让大多数人感到惊讶的是，我们目前仍处于极其早期的阶段。绝大多数的营收放量（爬坡）要到明年，也就是 2027 年的上半年乃至下半年才会真正开始！

不过，能看到中文社区大家持续不断的支持，真的让我感觉非常棒。我会尽我所能，不辜负大家给我起的 “白毛股神” 这个称号。

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$ALRIB general meeting notes came out today.

-2nd ROSIE System expected to be delivered shortly to a leading quantum computing player” in the US.

- They’re also intensifying BD for their products used for BTO/STO on photonics and recorded strong interest.

Just for background, they’re the MBE duopoly with Veeco, which got re-rated heavily recently (Disclosure own Riber), with exposure to Quantum.

Positive development overall.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

The 1st large scale X study on stock market net worth has finished!

From the 6000+ responses of those active on X finance, here's the results:

5.8% - $10M+
15% - $1m - $10M
35.9% - $100k - $1M
43.3% - under $100k

This is probably more representative of active followers.

Where 20.8 out of every 100 people have over $1,000,000+.

And 5.8 out of 100 have over $10,000,000.

And 43.3% of the population are probably happier in life than the rest.

Was just curious, fascinating figures.

Definitely not representative of the total population, but just those active on Finance X.