Alfon

[Rose Celine Investments 🌹 @realroseceline]

The Investor’s Curse

The strange thing about investing is that the closer you get to winning, the easier it becomes to forget what winning was supposed to mean. In the beginning, you invest to become free. If you are successful enough, you can eventually spend your entire life worrying about the thing that was supposed to set you free.

This is the investor’s curse: the same wealth that increases your ability to take risk can destroy your ability to tolerate it. Someone with $10m can afford to lose $1m far more easily than someone with $100k can afford to lose $10k, yet the first loss may feel infinitely more painful. Risk is experienced in dollars even when it should be understood in consequences.

Success can even make your greatest investment feel like your greatest danger. The company that created your wealth becomes too large and too important to hold comfortably. Nothing about the business changed, but its success transformed it from an opportunity you hoped would work into an asset you are terrified to lose.

So you diversify, but diversification introduces a risk rarely found in textbooks. You sell the few businesses you understand deeply and replace them with many you understand less, exchanging visible concentration for invisible ignorance. The portfolio may look safer while the quality of your judgment quietly declines.

Then comes the most seductive trap which is believing every dollar must remain productive forever. The first $1m might buy freedom and the next few might buy security, but eventually another $1m becomes little more than a larger number on a screen. Yet many investors risk the freedom they already have to pursue money they may never meaningfully experience.

Perhaps wealth should eventually change the question. Early on, the question is how much you can make, but later it should become how little of your life must remain controlled by money. If your portfolio can fall 50% without changing how your family lives or what you are free to do, the decline may be financially enormous while being practically irrelevant.

The final stage of investing is not learning how to take more risk or eliminate it completely. It is learning which portion of your wealth no longer needs to participate in the contest. The greatest investors know how to compound capital, but the wisest eventually learn when capital has compounded enough.

🌹

[johnna paige. @4ohnna]

Please get addicted to thinking everything will always work out for you.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Nothing is guaranteed

[IsaacVtuber @IsaacVtuber11]

Un chabón organizador de eventos subió este video de una fiesta CONTROLADA y los comentarios se fuero al pasto JAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJA UNO TIRÓ "SE FUERON DE BEFORE" JAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJA NO RESPIRO

[gallardista @gallardista31]

QUE CRACK ESTE TIPO TODA LA RAZON Y LO EXPULSAN ASI ESTA EL PAIS.
QUE PROGRAMON Q ES EL TRIBUNERO.

[Peñargrol @CAPArgento__]

nunca en mi vida pense ver un video de jeffry epstein con cumbia cheta de fondo

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

The US Treasury has to refinance $9.7 trillion of debt this year. Not borrow new money. Just roll over what’s already there.

That is a third of the entire publicly held debt hitting the market in twelve months, at whatever rate the market decides to charge, and the consensus response from people who should know better is still “we’ll grow into it.”

We won’t. And I’d bet most of the people saying it have never watched a bond market decide it’s done being polite.

The math is not complicated. Debt-to-GDP only falls when nominal growth beats the average interest rate on the debt and you aren’t running a primary deficit on top of it. We fail both. The average rate on marketable Treasury debt is about 3.35%, up from 1.54% five years ago, and it climbs every single month as the cheap COVID-era paper matures and gets replaced at today’s yields. Nobody has to vote for that. It happens automatically.

Interest cost crossed $970 billion last year and passes a trillion now. Projected to hit $2.1 trillion by 2036. Sixteen trillion in interest over the decade, money that buys nothing, builds nothing, funds nothing. It already eats 18.5% of every dollar of federal revenue and goes to a quarter of revenue within ten years. It is the fastest-growing line in the budget and it grows in a straight line regardless of who wins any election between now and then.

Here is what should terrify you. CBO has debt going from 101% to 120% of GDP by 2036 with deficits running 5.8% of GDP right now. That projection assumes eleven straight years without a recession. Zero contraction. Ever. That is the good case.

Now think about what an actual recession does to that fraction. Revenue collapses. Automatic stabilizers fire. Deficits blow out to 10%+ overnight while the denominator shrinks underneath you. The ratio doesn’t drift higher, it gaps.

And it never comes back. 2007 we were at 35%. 2012, 70%. 2019, 79%. 2021, over 100%. Every crisis resets the floor and the growth everyone promised has never once clawed back a single point of it. The ratio only ratchets one direction.

Don’t bring up post-WWII. We paid that down with capped yields, a captive domestic bond market, a baby boom, and a world that had just bombed its own factories flat. Don’t bring up Japan either. Domestic savers, a central bank warehousing the curve, a current account surplus. We have foreign creditors with options and twin deficits.

Moody’s already pulled the last AAA in 2025, first downgrade since 1917. The signal is out there.

Debt compounds mechanically. Growth is a choice the market makes for you, and eventually it stops choosing.

[Market Monk @TheMarket_Monk]

"...so there's this guy named Leopold Aschenbrenner...and Citadel.. they told everyone we were going to get a rate hike..."

[🧶 @4i70Q4]

Life peaked here 🕊️

[Marcelo Roffé @MarceloRoffe]

La relación entre el cansancio y el estado de ánimo según César Luis Menotti

[ElBuni @therealbuni]

A colapinto se le paso la lengua mientras hablaba del mundial y lo tuvieron que frenar jsjsj

-"Quieren festejar y no tienen ni letra para cantar el himno, trataron de quemar una bandera Argentina y no podian"

-basta basta

[Mr. IKEM 💙❤️ @Ikem_onefeli]

I don’t understand how the second placed team could have a better reception than the world champions.

Is it because Argentina has more footballing culture and love than Spain?

Or it’s just down to Spain having less population.

[Juan Pablo Álvarez @JPAperiodista]

Si estás empezando a dudar si existe la posibilidad de que jugadores multimillonarios hayan ido para atrás en una final del mundo porque lo leíste de algún conspiranoico delirante, es un buen síntoma de que te conviene desinstalar Twitter y empezar a hablar con más gente de verdad, salir a la calle, mirar el sol, verte con amigos y disfrutar un buen asado.

No dejés que te arruinen el cerebro y no creas que va a ser inocuo para tu salud y para tu vida consumir cualquier estupidez. Pará la pelota antes de que sea tarde.

[Gustavo Bazzan @gbazzan]

Dale RT a este Leopoldo Jacinto Luque de la suerte para que el domingo Enzo Fernández la rompa contra los españoles.

[gab @itswiftrp]

SI RETUITEAS AL LEO MESSI CHIQUITO

ARGENTINA ELIMINA A ESPAÑA Y SOMOS BICAMPEONES

[SportsCenter @SC_ESPN]

"ARGENTINO, EL CANA ES ARGENTINO, EL CANA ES ARGENTINOOOO". Ya con pasaje a la final del Mundo, la hinchada lo convenció y el policía de Atlanta se terminó poniendo el piluso de la Scaloneta... ¡Misión cumplida!

🎬 #ESPNMundial
📺 Mirá los mejores partidos de la #FIFAWorldCup por ESPN, en el Plan Premium de #DisneyPlus

[PaseClave @paseclave__]

🔥🇪🇸 “Claro que se sienten orgullosos de la mano de Dios, hasta yo como español digo ‘Ole pueblo argentino’ porque va más allá del futbol. No es una trampa, es una revancha. No están orgullosos de la trampa, están orgullosos de haberse vengado de los ingleses” - Rodrigo Quesada