Alinguo

#Web 2.5? | #ETH HODL | IQ 50

[Pendle Intern @PendleIntern]

https://t.co/F8p9FW0brF

[Alinguo @ALINGUO1]

@chenmo 是的，字数限制没表达清楚，对于两者而言，按目前的收入水平，回收率上不去，即使开了也影响不大（eg.Aave/Jupiter）。核心还是看每一层能拿到RWA爆发的多少价值，发行层的ondo目前市占第一还要不断补贴，我反倒觉得下游的收益/杠杆基础设施 aave/morph/pendle 这类能拿的价值更高 不过传导路径也更长

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

⚡️ Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan: The next crypto bull market will be driven by stablecoins, tokenization, 24/7 trading, instant settlement, and institutional DeFi scaling into the trillions.

[Doctor Profit 🇨🇭 @DrProfitCrypto]

$BTC – What's Next?

The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know

🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:

Everyone and I mean literally everyone I personally know has told me over the last three or four weeks, and especially over the last two weeks, that they want to buy in September or October. That alone is already very dangerous. When you ask them why, they all give the same answer: “Because of the four-year cycle.” And I honestly ask myself how long some of these people have even been in the market. The four-year cycle also worked almost perfectly at the top, but nobody talked about it then. That is the difference. At $120,000, nobody wanted to talk about the four-year cycle. In fact, people hated it. They said, “It does not exist. It does not exist,” because they were greedy and wanted prices to keep going higher.

Now the same people are greedy again, just in the opposite direction. They believe the market is going to serve them the exact bottom on a silver platter. “Here is the bottom. It will come around September or October. The exact price will be this or that.” That is genuinely what people believe. The problem is not the four-year cycle itself. The problem is the number of people who believe in the exact same outcome. The more people believe it, the less realistic it becomes. I honestly believe we will not see this traditional four-year-cycle bottom

The next question is: what do we actually see instead?

At the moment, I do not even see Bitcoin going below $50,000. There is an extreme amount of liquidity around $54,000, and that cannot be ignored. You have to keep that level in mind. From the current price down to $54,000 is around 15%. From a risk-reward perspective, even if we assume the worst-case scenario is a move into the $54,000 region, buying now and facing 15% downside is not much. It is nothing compared with the people who always and stupidly bought at $70,000, $80,000 or $90,000, and those who never understood the right moment to enter the market, and anyway, those people will always buy, and we cant count them among those who bought the bottom.

That is why it makes sense to begin accumulating now, step by step. Not all in. That is very important. I do not suddenly FOMO in and deploy everything. No. This will still take some time. I also believe the real move higher is not starting immediately. But there is one more thing people should not forget. They say the four-year cycle should end around October. Fine. Then let me ask you a counterquestion:

BlackRock, the New York Stock Exchange, the S&P, Nasdaq and the other major institutions are all involved in the DTCC, the new financial market infrastructure, and they want to move forward with the tokenization of stocks. BlackRock wants to launch the new platform in October. What does that mean?

It means investors WILL trade stocks 24 hours a day. That is enormous, and the market still has not fully understood it. Tokenization has mostly been treated like a beta phase until now. Platforms such as Hyperliquid and similar markets were effectively test environments. They wanted to see how much demand there was, how users would react and whether the infrastructure worked. The users had to be tested. The technology had to be tested. The market had to be tested. And it worked extremely well. Now it has been announced that this is expected to move forward in October. At the same time, there are rumors that the Clarity Act could pass in August. That would be enormous news.

If it passes, there is regulatory clarity. Institutions can enter the crypto market much more easily. I do not necessarily believe they will suddenly start buying the entire crypto market at scale, but I do believe they will move aggressively into tokenization, which could follow one or two months later. So lets return to my question:

Who benefits from tokenization?

First of all, the entire crypto market benefits. Even if institutions do not directly buy every cryptocurrency in large size, the narrative becomes bullish for crypto and Blockchain. The market starts to see blockchain as legitimate, institutional and part of the future financial system.

Then you will see prices move strongly in my opinion. I expect we will see BlackRock announcing partnerships, BlackRock doing something with Bitcoin, Trump making new statements, and suddenly the entire narrative becomes extremely bullish because everything fits together. Do you really believe BlackRock will aggressively push tokenization forward in October while, at the exact same time, the crypto market crashes, fear dominates and nobody wants anything to do with crypto? Do you think that ? I do not.

I believe we will see FOMO in October. I believe we will see large candles and strong momentum in the market. It may not necessarily be the same type of retail FOMO we have seen before, but there will be growing confidence and acceptance, while major bullish news enters the market at the same time. And this will be the time where the retails are sitting and doing what ? Exactly, these people will wait for their four years cycle! Let them wait for their cycle, because the market will front run that! In my opinion, that will create an extremely powerful bullish narrative.

That is why the fact that everyone now believes in the four-year-cycle bottom is a warning sign to me. It tells me the crowd may once again be completely wrong. I especially believe that many people sitting with buy orders below $50,000 will never get filled. That is why I am starting to accumulate now. I hope we still take the liquidity around $54,000, because that would give an even better entry. I have my orders ready, and I will continue buying gradually every day.

The Exact Strategy: How I Am Buying, How Much I Am Deploying, and the BTC–ETH Ratio

Watching this chart closely. In my opinion, once Bitcoin reclaims and flips the green line on the weekly timeframe, the end of the bear market will be confirmed. This would not be a standalone signal. It would align with several other indicators I am monitoring, some of which I have already disclosed inside Premium, together with multiple technical, psychological and fundamental factors I am currently considering. Bitcoin has already reclaimed the weekly MA200. The next major step is to reclaim this green line and hold above it on the weekly close. Once that happens, my next major target becomes $80,000. For now, however, Bitcoin has faced a rejection at this level, while a large amount of liquidity remains around $54,000. That is why my strategy is structured around two completely separate buckets of capital. It is important to understand that I am not mixing these funds.

The first bucket consists entirely of realized profits from the Bitcoin short opened around $120,000 and the more than 100 altcoin shorts I held for approximately nine months. I deployed that entire bucket yesterday and bought Bitcoin at around $64,000. In other words, I converted the profits made during the bear market directly into a long-term Bitcoin position fully.

The second bucket is completely separate. This is capital that was never used in the short positions and remained on the sidelines. I am now deploying this cash gradually. My plan is to invest this second bucket on every day Bitcoin trades between $54,000 and $64,000. Five percent multiplied by 20 purchases equals 100%, meaning the entire amount would be deployed if Bitcoin remains inside this accumulation zone for approximately 20 buying days.

If Bitcoin trades at $64,000, I buy. If it trades at $60,000, I buy. If it falls to $58,000, I buy. If it reaches $54,000, I continue buying at a better price. However, if Bitcoin moves above $64,000, I stop adding the daily 5%. I will not chase the market outside the accumulation zone. After approximately one month, the objective is to hold one large Bitcoin position purchased at around $64,000 using the realized short profits, together with a second position accumulated gradually through disciplined daily purchases. Depending on how deeply Bitcoin trades inside the range, I expect my combined average entry to settle somewhere around the $60,000 region.

From a risk-to-reward perspective, I personally consider my average Bitcoin entry around $60,000 to be phenomenal for the long term. That level is below the previous 2021 all-time-high region, and thats an exceptional position. At the same time, I am following a fixed BTC-to-ETH allocation. For every four dollars I invest in Bitcoin, I invest one dollar in Ethereum. That means for every $100,000 deployed into BTC, I allocate $25,000 to ETH.

Bitcoin remains the dominant position, while Ethereum receives an allocation equal to 25% of every Bitcoin purchase. Ethereum is a separate topic that deserves its own full report, because I am extremely bullish on ETH for the next major market expansion. So the strategy is clear: one bucket of realized short profits has already been fully deployed into Bitcoin at approximately $64,000. The second bucket is being deployed gradually through daily 5% purchases whenever Bitcoin trades between $54,000 and $64,000. For every four dollars invested in BTC, one dollar is invested in ETH.

That is the strategy, my accumulation just started

Join Premium and you will not miss out on what exactly I am buying, what I plan to build, where I place potential long orders and other of my trading targets: https://t.co/oP8wCPuO9J

THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVICE BUT EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY

[Dune @Dune]

1/ Across H1 2026, an average of 85% of concentrated-liquidity capital was underutilized and 29.5% sat outside the active price range. That works out to roughly $542M idle in a typical week.

New onchain research from Dune, produced for @1inch.

[Pendle @pendle_fi]

One of DeFi's most rewarding strategies, once gated behind an hour long labour of buy, lend, borrow, repeat... is now open for everyone with just a mouse click.

Enjoy.

[Alinguo @ALINGUO1]

链上老兵 四处交互 ngmi but still here 🫡

[MetaMask 🦊 @MetaMask]

MetaMask just turned 10 years old. 🦊

To celebrate, we made you a little something:

https://t.co/RCUpaBF9eU

[Alinguo @ALINGUO1]

@chenmo 不小心又看到过去消耗的gas 搁这会真是一笔巨款了 ...😭

[Alana Levin @AlanaDLevin]

https://t.co/Q9OboQufAS

[Blockworks @Blockworks]

The new B-2 Token Transparency Framework.

A disclosure standard for protocols to surface offchain financials and what growth is organic or purchased.

15 protocols including Morpho, Jito, and Aerodrome filed. See below.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

Long post, but some thoughts on what happened in the market today…

Today was a particularly weird storm of price action because the logic going into the open was as follows:

- $MU crushed, saved the AI trade

- AI stocks should go higher due to MU proving its not cyclical, this should help the broader market get a lift

Instead, what we got right before the open…

- $AAPL announces massive price hikes and effectively uses MU earnings to be like, “See! It’s not us, but if memory gets 86% margins, then we have to raise prices!”

- This happens right after the hottest PCE in 3 years is reported, even with oil (the biggest proponent of inflation the past few months) still coming down

- Microsoft then joins the party and raises prices across all XBOX products, once again citing memory costs

Market then proceeds to take a nasty dip in every sector…except Memory.

I think what is happening here will be studied for a long time. The hyperscalers, the companies that are RESPONSIBLE for $MU and $SNDK being multibaggers, are getting destroyed because…well they can’t buy back stock, they can’t get FCF positive, and they don’t have memory’s pricing power.

In fact, this is what Melius Research came out today and said:

“Why bother owning a hyperscaler who can't buy back stock any time soon? Micron can start buying over $25B/quarter in stock during CY27. Memory will go down as THE BOTTLENECK of ALL BOTTLENECKS for this AI era. MU said that current conditions last after calendar 2027, basically guaranteeing buybacks of epic proportions, especially next calendar year.”

We are at the point where the sell-side is saying that owning the best companies in the world makes no sense when you can own the bottleneck of all bottlenecks.

Here’s the thing: I don’t know if Melius is actually wrong.

My gut tells me that 86% gross margins will not last forever, but as long as the hyperscalers are willing to pay, then the structural logic for market participants comes down to a simple question: why own the companies paying the capex over the companies benefiting from it?

The problem is obvious: if memory inflation continues to be intense, it will affect every part of the market. From automotive to datacenters to PCs. $NVDA gets to have a tax because it’s building very IP-heavy products. Will the market allow something like memory, that is not IP-heavy, to force consumers globally to pay significantly more for the products? Also, do the memory makers even care because as long as they control supply, they can control pricing?

I’d imagine the big tech companies either lower capex to stop paying the cost, keep paying the cost, or try to innovate. They likely won’t lower capex and will most likely continue paying the cost, so there probably are some elements of them trying to focus on innovating in this area…but if there won’t be any menaingful cutoff in capex, the memory story continues.

The market fell today because higher inflation means more of a chance for rate hikes. I mean, NVDA went below 200 as MU hit all time highs. NVDA’s suppliers are more valuable than NVDA’s biggest customers. As a result, it’s creating a type of AI-flation that basically led the market to sell off everything else.

Not sure how this plays out, retail continues to buy the dip and today’s red probably gets bought…especially as earnings continue to grow…but we are in a new paradigm for how this market gives a premium to a stock and if you have pricing power over a component that matters to build AI vs being a companies that actually uses AI, you get a premium.

[Hong Kong Ethereum Community Hub @ethereumhkhub]

https://t.co/M5QQd06Kwg

[Alinguo @ALINGUO1]

这是继去年 12 月 Cowswap 与 Aave 合作的范式复制，借贷协议三大共同痛点（MEV 防护 + 原子化执行 + 最优路径）使得 Spark、Comp、Morpho、Euler 这类借贷协议都有动机复用 CoW 的执行层。后续如能进一步推广到 Morpho、Spark 等协议，B 端订单流的增长会是 2026 年最确定的叙事之一。@CoWSwap

[CoW DAO @CoWSwap]

May was a month for building at CoW DAO.

DEX aggregation got more competitive in May. CoW Protocol held 16.8% market share — second across all supported chains.

Here's what the herd was up to this month. 🧵🐄

[Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati]

How to fuck 500 million people at once:
Be @saylor.

> phase 1: never sell your bitcoin

> phase 2: sell a KIDNEY before you sell your bitcoin

> phase 3: we sold the bitcoin

> phase 4: i never said the company wouldn’t sell

> phase 5: anyone with half a brain knew that

> phase 6: enjoy your one kidney bestie

[Michael Bentley @euler_mab]

Pretty cool to see Cyclical Rates finally go live.

I came up with the original mechanism during my time at Euler as a way to bridge the gap between variable-rate lending and fixed-term credit.

Instead of fixed maturities, Cyclical Rates use recurring repayment windows that repeat forever. Borrowers get a predictable rate for most of the cycle, but face sharply higher rates during the repayment window, creating a strong incentive to refinance or repay.

The result is a perpetual fixed-rate lending market: borrowers get rate certainty, lenders get structured liquidity events, and positions remain fungible and composable onchain.

As far as I'm aware, there isn't really a traditional finance analogue. It's a genuinely crypto-native lending primitive that only works because smart contracts can coordinate these recurring incentive cycles automatically.

Very cool to see the team take it from concept to production.

[Udi Wertheimer @udiWertheimer]

btw this isn’t the first time a bug like this was discovered in zcash. last time it was disclosed after being a year+ in the wild and everyone lost faith and zcash went to zero for 7 years, until they found a new generation of buyers who doesn’t know the history (that’s you)

[Alinguo @ALINGUO1]

@Sea_Bitcoin 🙋‍♂️哥 dddd

[Alinguo @ALINGUO1]

@ferbsol 🫡

[ferb @ferbsol]

https://t.co/g7OvtRp7Is