@tseides 100-yr tine horizon is comprised 1yr 100 times…what happens over the short term, particularly investor’s behavior, matters over the long term.
@MebFaber@CalPERS That's always the case when markets move rapidly in one direction... In some periods, lagged values work in your favor, whereas in other times, it works against you.
@OtterMarket I would differentiate between short and long term inflation. In the short term, companies experience a shock since it takes time to adjust operations/infrastructure to pass-through costs. Also, the cost of debt and equity rises as rates go up. In the long run, equities do fine.
@InstAllocator Great comment. The world is an uncertain place. Sometimes we are more aware of it than in other times, but it doesn’t change the fact that it is always uncertain.
@AlanJLSmith Because markets can decline and wipe you out. It’s very difficult to hold the S&P after a 30% decline, particularly if you consider that mkts most likely declined due a major crisis - covid, financial crisis, etc. Your approach is too naive and simplistic.
@RobinWigg This is ridiculous. The article should read *average* active manager underperformed. In the capital markets, being average is not good enough.
@StockJabber I think the biggest challenge is staying in the game long enough to recover. One BIG blow up is what cause funds to fail. Bill had a couple of misteps but can’t think of a trade where he lost +40% for the entire fund.
@morgenstern8989 Yes, but it is about enhancing battlefield effectiveness. It would be better if actual wars occurred in the metaverse..instead of actually killing people…☹️