#EURUSD
1/6 🚨 EUR/USD is dropping despite the Core PPI miss (0.4% vs 0.5% expected).
The softer core reading should have been USD-negative… but it’s getting completely ignored right now.
Here’s why 👇
2/6 Core PPI miss = legitimately dovish signal. It shows underlying producer inflation cooling faster than expected.
Normally this weakens the USD (lower yields, more dovish Fed bets).
But today the market is shrugging it off.
3/6 Main driver right now: Middle East tensions (US-Iran conflict).
Safe-haven flows are pouring into the USD. Oil/energy spikes are also inflating the headline PPI (+1.1% vs 0.7% expected), giving the dollar extra support.
The core miss gave a very brief lift… then it was sold.
4/6 Other factors weighing on EUR/USD:
• Headline PPI beat still adds some hawkish tilt • ECB decision + Lagarde press conference happening at the same time (high volatility) • EUR/USD was already sitting near two-month lows before today’s data
5/6 Classic “data vs narrative” situation.
The narrative (geopolitics + risk-off + ECB event risk) is stronger than the data (Core miss) at this exact moment.
The Core miss may limit how far USD can run longer-term, but it’s not winning today.
6/6 What to watch now:
• ECB press conference tone (biggest near-term driver for EUR) • Any Middle East de-escalation headlines • US 2-year yields & DXY reaction
Stay nimble — this session is volatile.
#EURUSD #PPI #ECB #Forex #USD
BREAKING: The European Central Bank officially hikes interest rates by 25 basis points, citing renewed inflation amid the Iran War.
This marks the first major central bank interest rate hike since 2023.
Rate hikes are officially back.
Julia Spina @FinancePhoton joins @TraderMikeyB and @JermalChandler to reveal new research:
Is the Mag 7 a bubble?
Cisco traded at 187x earnings at the dot-com peak. Oracle at 118x.
Today $NVDA is at 33x.
$GOOGL at 27x.
$META at 21x.
The Mag 7 is expensive but nowhere near 2000 levels.
Except $TSLA which is over 150x and in a category of its own.
Stronger fundamentals than 2000. But the question of whether the valuations are justified is still wide open.
Seven of ten bear market signposts just triggered. The Buffett indicator is 65% above its long-term trend. The Schiller CAPE has only been higher once at the dot-com peak. Goldman says when crowded positioning unwinds it unwinds fast.
@TraderMikeyB ran the options math on who is actually right.
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