Already On the Rich Moon

Full-time investor.
Good at discovering 10x stocks,
High-Growth stocks with High Barriers to entry.
Forex, commodities.
Not financial advice. Always DYOR.

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

This book offers a clear understanding of #stagflation.
It organizes the history, theory, and future risks.
Concise, clear, and practical.

https://t.co/Q7Zglfm2df

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

🚨 PE Under Watch?

– Lawmaker urges SEC to probe Harvard Endowment
– ~70% in hard-to-value PE assets
– NAVs may be inflated
– Industry-wide review possible
– Some investors eye BX, CG, KKR, APO

Not financial advice. (DYOR).

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

#Linqto Faces Collapse – SEC Probe

-Linqto sold Ripple shares at 60% markup to retail investors.
-Broke private market rules (max ~10% markup).
-Shares undelivered, sold to unqualified investors.
-SEC probing deals like pre-IPO Circle.
-Trust in private equity platforms shaken.

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

📊 How Rate Cuts Affect Markets Depends on Timing

📉 Rate cut at market highs = bearish
→ Seen as warning sign. Past: 2000, 2007, 2022

📈 Rate cut at market lows = bullish
→ Seen as recovery signal. Past: 2009, 2020

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

🇹🇭 Thailand Market

-YTD: -22.4% (SE Asia worst)
-THD: P/E 12.9x, Yield 3.4%
-Tariff risk (TH: 36%)
-Political unrest, tourist slump (-32.7% from China)
-In deflation; wait for clarity before buying

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

🇰🇪 Kenya Snapshot

-GDP $108B, inflation 3.8%, rate 9.75%
-Tourism = 19% of GDP
-No oil/gold reliance
-80% in farming (tea, coffee, dairy)
-Power: 44% hydro, 14% geothermal
-NSE: no capital gains tax, 5% dividend tax
-Brokers: NCBA, NCK Capital

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

Trump Targets #Fed Chair Early

-#Powell won’t cut rates — Trump frustrated.
-May name successor now to pressure him.
-Top picks: Warsh, Hassett, Malpass, Waller.
-Hassett/Malpass → Wall St. dislikes.
-If either is picked, #USD may plunge even further.

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

🏠KB Home Q2 (2025)
$KBH

-EPS: $1.50 > est. $1.46
-Rev: $1.53B > est. $1.50B
-Sales -10.5%, Deliveries -11%
-ASP: $488.7K
-GM: 19.7% (↓ from 21.2%)
-FY rev guide: $6.3–6.5B vs est. $6.67B
-GM guide: 19.0–19.4% vs est. ~19.6%
-Demand slowed since April (Absorp. 4.5)

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

A major quake could hit the S&P 500
in July, August, or September 2025.

Not financial advice. (DYOR).

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

🇺🇸 U.S. Economy: Signs of a Possible Downturn?

-The U.S. may be heading toward a #recession
-Housing starts could act as a leading indicator
-A slowdown in construction might signal deeper trouble
-The housing market is likely to draw increased attention

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

War News May Hit Sentiment
– Key Watchpoints

-War headlines may dampen confidence
-Stocks could face downward pressure
-Commodities and the dollar might weaken
-Caution in portfolio positioning is warranted
-Holding more cash could be one option to consider

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

Focus Is on Sentiment, Not the War

-Not concerned with the outcome of the Middle East war
-“War!” headlines may chill U.S. consumer spending
-U.S. housing starts are highly rate-sensitive
-Rising oil makes Fed rate cuts harder
-Real estate sentiment may take a hit

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

Iran’s Likely Response After U.S. Strike

-No casualties or radiation reported
-Trump not seeking regime change
-Iran needs to show it’s “fighting back”
-Lacks power to confront U.S. directly
-Likely to opt for symbolic retaliation & blockade

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

Oil Market Risk Without Full Blockade

-#Hormuz doesn’t need full closure to shake markets
-Small tanker attacks can spike prices
-Blame can be shifted to pirates
-Lower-risk tactic for disruptors
-Markets fear uncertainty more than damage

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

Why #Yen Falls More Than #Euro on Oil Spikes

🛢️ Japan relies heavily on oil imports
📉 Energy costs worsen Japan’s trade balance
🔁 BoJ unlikely to hike rates → weak yen

🇪🇺 EU has diversified energy sources
💶 ECB more hawkish → euro more resilient

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

U.S. Market Optimism = Premature

📅 Apr 7 seen as bull start—but shaky.
🛢️ Tanker attacks alone can spook oil.
🇺🇸 U.S. oil reserves at 40-year low.
⏳ Shale needs time to scale up.
📉 Stocks pricey; rally may be over.

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

1973 Oil Shock – Market Lessons

🛢️ War triggered 70% oil price hike.
📈 Stocks rose for 2 weeks post-war.
💥 Then fell -20% on inflation fears.
🧠 Bulls ignored early warnings.
🎢 Bear rallies misled investors.
⏳ Recession signs came 14 months later.

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

🇮🇱🇮🇷 : #Israel strikes Iran gas facility

-Drone hit #Iran’s South Pars gas plant
-First foreign attack on Iran’s energy site since 1980s
-Facility handles 5% of Iran’s gas output
-Linked to world’s largest gas field (shared with Qatar)
-Social media shows massive explosion

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

Market Shift – #Stagflation Risk Rising

🛢️ Oil up, U.S. crude stockpiles near 10-year lows.
🇺🇸 Strategic reserve remains depleted.
📈 #CPI drop relied on cheap oil—no longer.
🏦 #Fed rate cuts now harder.
⛽ Gas surge may hurt spending.
🌍 Global stocks face broad downside.

[Already On the Rich Moon @alotmoon]

Profit Growth Drives Returns

-EPS = profit ÷ shares.
-S&P 500 EPS grew 5.8%/yr (2006–2024).
-Total return = EPS + dividends + inflation.
-P/E changes explain return gaps.
-Beating estimates = “good” earnings.
-Good earnings often repeat—like top students.