Anderson

Sector-agnostic L/S

[Anderson @alpha_for_all]

@Mike10947310 @sskltd @AtlasShrug1 @blueoutliercap @cesarsroy gonna update variance tab vs most recent sell side - model + write up done tmr

[Anderson @alpha_for_all]

@Mike10947310 @sskltd @AtlasShrug1 @blueoutliercap @cesarsroy Yep that makes a lot of sense. Fully agreed on downside protection - I’ve modeled bear case as pure merchant sales IPP (no ERAS, no PPA) and TLDR we’re close to that floor + paying cheap premium for significant upside catalysts + near-term rerating (will all be in write up tn)

[Anderson @alpha_for_all]

@sskltd @AtlasShrug1 @blueoutliercap @cesarsroy @Mike10947310 Yep sounds good, will publish my full read + model if X lets me attach lol tn

[Anderson @alpha_for_all]

@sskltd @AtlasShrug1 @blueoutliercap @cesarsroy @Mike10947310 To be clear, I am not at all claiming that is your whole argument (and I’m posting tn with all the evidence that does suggest Merom will contract the DC), rather it is important to note that proximity to electrical transmissions > power plant for DCs (for those less familiar)

[Anderson @alpha_for_all]

@blueoutliercap @AtlasShrug1 @sskltd @cesarsroy @Mike10947310 Yes I’ve watched that video, strong but circumstantial evidence however a commissioner would not be involved in private negotiations (also may be running full capacity through spot selling not PPA)

[Anderson @alpha_for_all]

@AtlasShrug1 @sskltd @cesarsroy @Mike10947310 Two other reasons to locate it in Sullivan: 1) area with many interconnections so can connect to scaled IPPs (not just $HNRG) without huge infra build required 2) Sullivan county has no zoning regulations so easy to build a DC despite community pushback (unlike other areas)

[Anderson @alpha_for_all]

@AtlasShrug1 @sskltd @cesarsroy @Mike10947310 Got it thanks - my main hesitancy is that there is yet to be any non-circumstantial evidence linking dc to Hallador’s generation (lots linking to the energy interconnection but this links to numerous other credible power sources + Hallador’s 1GW does not cover full 2.1GW)

[Anderson @alpha_for_all]

@AtlasShrug1 @sskltd @cesarsroy @Mike10947310 Yes agreed that oil-sell off is unjustified and provides nice entry opportunity (on the GOOG point, does them financing it indicate they are the ones actually behind the data center?)

[Anderson @alpha_for_all]

@AtlasShrug1 @sskltd @cesarsroy @Mike10947310 can dm as well

[Anderson @alpha_for_all]

@AtlasShrug1 @sskltd @cesarsroy @Mike10947310 but yeah happy to share will do tn/ tmr

[Anderson @alpha_for_all]

@AtlasShrug1 @sskltd @cesarsroy @Mike10947310 I have updated model happy to share

[Anderson @alpha_for_all]

@tlivian @finphysnerd @leevalueroach the forward multiple is cheap because they've literally guided -$40 - +$10M operating profit next year on core HDMC segment. They sold a portion of their financing business and 2/3 of future loans to KKR/PIMCO (note: this structurally impairs segment EBIT for years to come)

[Anderson @alpha_for_all]

@leevalueroach Even on "normalized" 2028-2029 earnings of $150-$250M consolidated OI (which requires volume stabilization), you're paying 7-13x... this seems a value traps. I'm staying far clear of the deceptively cheap $HOG

[Anderson @alpha_for_all]

@leevalueroach please correct me if I am wrong but are you and other not misreading the HOG balance sheet? Significant cash is tied up in HDFS maturities. At a $2.2B market cap, subtract ~$300-500M in genuinely excess parent cash and you're paying $1.7–1.9B for the operating biz

[Anderson @alpha_for_all]

@leevalueroach HDMC generated -$29M operating income in 2025. HDFS guided $45-60M for 2026. LiveWire loses $70-$80M/year. So you're paying $1.7-1.9B for businesses that will generate roughly -$65M to -$10M in combined operating income in 2026. not obviously cheap for a secularly declining biz

[Anderson @alpha_for_all]

@blueoutliercap Mgmt guided multiple smaller PPAs on the last call - curious how that affects your view on liklihood of this leading to a deal for HNRG? thanks