Rob

[Rob @sskltd]

$HNRG secures the bag

[Ryan Rahinsky @blueoutliercap]

$HNRG Huge deal. Kudos to management for making this happen. I used to hear that Hallador will never get their ERAS NG expansion plan accomplished, with one of the main reasons being a lack of turbines. Not only did they solve that issue, but did so in a way with minimal risk (they think they can sell the turbines for more than they paid in the worst case scenario where they don't go forward with the plan) while significantly shortening their time to power. Being duel fueled should be transformational for their availability of financing and for the ability to make deals with hyperscalers, while broadening the potential shareholder base.
https://t.co/kgkR64gVUB

[Rob @sskltd]

@demian_ai Siltronic

[Rob @sskltd]

@atticusanalysis dm if you want, but in short it depends on how you expect energy prices to develop

[Rob @sskltd]

$HNRG Yesterday's announced deal for 2/3rd of merom capacity implies a pricing uplift from ~$225/MW-day to ~$450-500/MW-day, roughly a 2x repricing.

That is $85-94M/yr of capacity revenue from this deal alone, and a contract for the remaining 1/3rd at similar terms implies ~$128-140M/yr.

The fixed cost to run Merom is ~$60M/yr.

This is all before energy is sold.

[Rob @sskltd]

@alive_ this

[Rob @sskltd]

@jaysyoon @blueoutliercap @Mike10947310 maybe some credit to Brent and team

[Rob @sskltd]

@blueoutliercap https://t.co/0wibjpjY2f 1:07:25

[Rob @sskltd]

@alive_ lfg

[Rob @sskltd]

@edzitron they will make that in 2030 alone

[Rob @sskltd]

@AtlasShrug1 @alpha_for_all @Mike10947310 @blueoutliercap @cesarsroy @alpha_for_all bro really abandoned us when we needed him the most

[Rob @sskltd]

@alpha_for_all when model

[Rob @sskltd]

@alpha_for_all @Mike10947310 @AtlasShrug1 @blueoutliercap @cesarsroy fair hunch. the 430MW phase 1 maybe threw people off. but tbf it is over 15 years and phase 2 is ~3x the size. my hunch is the market discounts phase 2 ever happening.

[Rob @sskltd]

@alpha_for_all @AtlasShrug1 @blueoutliercap @cesarsroy @Mike10947310 yeah cool, just making sure. was rereading your last post this morning and just wanted to clarify.

this dc news has been out for a while and we’ve only traded down, so we’re all missing something!

[Rob @sskltd]

dunno. I think a lot of the concerns that @alpha_for_all is sharing is reasonable and perhaps representative of many opinions monitoring the situation. also brent has been promising a dc deal for ~2 years, so maybe some fatigue or distrust. and some of the market still models $hnrg as a coal miner lol

[Rob @sskltd]

@AtlasShrug1 @alpha_for_all @blueoutliercap @cesarsroy @Mike10947310 the RFP from hallador does say it will go through hoosier/win

[Rob @sskltd]

@AtlasShrug1 @alpha_for_all @blueoutliercap @cesarsroy @Mike10947310 yes I guess it will obviously be circumstantial until there’s an announcement (which maybe there won’t even be, as it will potentially be greenwashed). but if you get hallador ir to tell you directly, please let us all know!

[Rob @sskltd]

@alpha_for_all @AtlasShrug1 @cesarsroy @Mike10947310 er, in collaboration with*

[Rob @sskltd]

@alpha_for_all @AtlasShrug1 @cesarsroy @Mike10947310 also hallador marketed the project (on behalf of Hoosier and WIN)