Sooo..what happens to the Ripple v. SEC (and Coinbase case, etc.) next year?
Well, I wasn't sure about the nuts/bolts of it all so I listened to a great Space by @JohnReedStark today and the most LIKELY scenario is:
1. Gensler steps down before Jan.20
2. The new head (or interim head) sends out marching orders that all non-fraud crypto cases need to be disposed of.
3. The litigation team looks at each case and recommends to either settle or dismiss each, and brings their reccomendations to the Commisioners who then vote yay or nay (there will now be 3 Rep appointed, so it will "yay").
-My thoughts on specific actions:
4. The Ripple case, or any case with a ruling, will be "settled" for the judgment amount - $125m. It would be...awkward to settle for less than what was already awarded by a Court!
5. The Coinbase and other cases in litigation will simply be dismissed.
6. This will take some time. Not January, but perhaps before summer.
That's my call and I'm sticking to it!
Ripple Appeal Update.
I COULD BE WRONG BUT,
I believe the deadline for the SEC to file the Form C passed at midnight last night.
This could indicate:
(a) a screw up by the SEC;
(b) a technical glitch with the electronic filing system;
(c) a decision by the SEC to abandon its appeal; or
(d) an agreement with @Ripple to drop both appeals.
(c) seems unlikely to me because an appellant (SEC) would almost never unilaterally abandon an appeal where a cross-appeal has been filed without first reaching an agreement with the cross-appellant (Ripple) that they would also drop their cross-appeal. Otherwise the appellant (SEC) faces the worst of all worlds--only downside exposure from the cross-appeal.
My calculation of the deadline follows from a recognition that the Notice of Appeal was filed on October 2. The filing date is what matters under the federal appellate rules. Intervening holidays and weekends don't change the deadline.
Ramifications:
The Form C itself says that failure to file it by the deadline means the appeal will be dismissed.
The Second Circuit's local rules, however, say that failure to file the Form C by the deadline means the appeal may be dismissed.
Not legal advice.
If I got any of this wrong, I will repost this with a correction.
#Ripple has announced initial #RLUSD exchange partners including, Uphold, Bitstamp, Bitso, MoonPay, Independent Reserve, CoinMENA, & Bullish. "Additionally, leading market makers, such as B2C2 & Keyrock" will support liquidity. 1/4.5
https://t.co/f0bRAgVYMj
As I said earlier this month, if Gensler and the SEC cared about the rule of law, they would accept their loss and move on. But they are not interested in faithfully applying the law or in providing clarity to industry players in the US. Under Chair Gensler, the agency is only interested in creating havoc - US innovation and technology be damned.
With our cross-appeal today, we're looking forward to sealing the SEC’s fate and finally putting an end to the SEC's regulation-by-enforcement agenda. Ripple was the industry leader in the first go-round in court and we look forward to leading the way in this round as well.
In a recent press junket, #Ripple partner Qatar National Bank, called out #RippleNet (sic) use for cross border remittance as part of their award-winning approach. (June '24 Gulf Times)
https://t.co/c6N80tw9gz
(1) The SEC's decision to appeal is disappointing, but not surprising. This just prolongs what's already a complete embarrassment for the agency. The Court already rejected the SEC’s suggestion that Ripple acted recklessly, and there were no allegations of fraud and, of course, there were no victims or losses.
(2) Instead of faithfully applying the law, this agency, under this Chair, continues to engage in litigation warfare against the industry. We are evaluating whether to file a cross appeal. Either way, the SEC's lawsuit has been irrational and misguided from the start, and we're ready to prove that yet again in the appellate court (once again taking the lead for the industry)
(3) Coincidence that the SEC’s Enforcement Director announced his resignation about an hour before this?
If Gensler and the SEC were rational, they would have moved on from this case long ago. It certainly hasn’t protected investors and instead has damaged the credibility and reputation of the SEC.
Somehow, they still haven't gotten the message: they lost on everything that matters. Ripple, the crypto industry, and the rule of law have already prevailed.
While we'll fight in court for as long as we need, let's be clear: XRP’s status as a non-security is the law of the land today - and that does not change even in the face of this misguided - and infuriating - appeal.
(Remember, when the SEC tried unsuccessfully to file an “interlocutory appeal” they made clear they had no intention of challenging XRP’s status as a non-security.)
Open interest in $XRP has surged past $1 billion amid growing enthusiasm for Ripple's upcoming RLUSD stablecoin, currently in private beta testing on both XRP Ledger and the Ethereum blockchain. By @shauryamalwa
https://t.co/7KV9G5RhAx
Today we filed an initial registration statement on Form S-1 for a new Bitwise XRP ETP.
“We believe blockchains will usher in new apolitical monetary assets and permissionless applications for the 21st century,” said Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley. “We aim to help investors access the opportunities in the space, and are excited to continue that work with our filing for a Bitwise XRP ETP.”
Link to press release below
Once purchasing power is lost, it is lost forever and Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller inadvertently made that perfectly clear when he spoke on Friday. He told CNBC in an interview that "What's got me a little more concerned is inflation is running softer than I thought." He's 'concerned' after we just experienced a 21% jump in the cost of living since February 2020? Tell that to the shopper at Walmart or Dollar General. Remember 'average inflation targeting'? That was a policy that the Fed implemented in August 2020 and turned out to be one of the most disastrous policy initiatives in their history dating back to 1913.
It was defined as this, "On price stability, the FOMC adjusted its strategy for achieving its longer-run inflation goal of 2 percent by noting that it "seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time." To this end, the revised statement states that "following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time." We know that policy initiative completely blew up on them.
Governor Waller implicitly confirmed that this inflation symmetry policy is out the window as if they stuck to it, they would have to tolerate a period of time of deflation in order to 'average' out the recent period of high inflation at 2%. I'll include a chart here again of how much inflation rose above its long term trend line and say again, once purchasing power is lost, it is lost forever because central bankers won't let you get it back. @RudyHavenstein I think you'd agree.
CPI index since the 1970's vs its trend line