alvaro

My tweets aren’t financial advice.

[alvaro @alvaroinvests]

Long shares and long call options here

[Derek Quick @derekquick1]

$UNH UnitedHealth Group sub $250s is $META sub $100. Low prices cure low prices with FCF & Buybacks.I have bought a bunch in the $230s & $250s now. Not many cared about Meta in the $80s ,this post will probably get < 100 likes like my META post at $88. https://t.co/a2fhZNfQTC

[Ryan Smith @RyanSmitty197]

@Ashton_1nvests $UNH Post market algo action comical. Berkshire exited UNH no later than 3/31/26 when stock was at $270. Stock hit $400 this past week, up 48% from the Q1 reporting date. Berkshire missed the entire run and now selloff AH because the firm that missed a 50% move exited. LOL

[alvaro @alvaroinvests]

@GutierrezCap_ atrapadísimos 😭🤘🏼

[Pedro Gutiérrez @GutierrezCap_]

$UNH con la inteligencia artificial es una de las mayores oportunidades del mercado.

[Pedro Gutiérrez @GutierrezCap_]

Hoy a las 19:30 explicaré en directo los earnings de $UNH en mi canal de YouTube.

https://t.co/bLeUiMAIRT

[Luis Miguel Ortiz @LuisMiguelValue]

Si esta compañía no gana dinero, el sistema sanitario de Estados Unidos tiene un problema.

Tomás Maraver analiza $UNH: un caso donde el mercado ve problemas, pero él ve normalización y potencial.

[alvaro @alvaroinvests]

@GutierrezCap_ @MDBBolsa maquinón Miguel 🤘🏼🤘🏼

[Kakashii @kakashiii111]

Today, my work over the years received another validation.

The DoJ, together with the FBI, announced charges against three executives of SuperMicro (SMCI) for Conspiracy to Violate the Export Control Reform Act.
Since at least early 2024, SMCI's executives built a sophisticated, systematic scheme to illegally divert billions of dollars worth of high-performance AI servers containing restricted Nvidia GPUs to China, using a pass-through company in Southeast Asia to evade U.S. export controls.

I was the first to call out this smuggling phenomenon in late 2023, when it was just beginning to pick up volume. I tracked the flow of chips across Southeast Asia, including their final destinations in China, and identified the key participants, SMCI among them, documenting how the sophisticated, systemic scheme operated.

What the DoJ described in its charging documents is precisely what I wrote about numerous times: the mechanics of how it works, the routes the GPUs travel from origin to their final destination in China, and the volume of the smuggling, which I estimated at tens of billions of dollars worth of GPUs.

SMCI is a significant catch, but it is far from the only player in this smuggling ecosystem. Others remain uncharged. What has been equally troubling is that many companies, including public companies and their executives, have had knowing or willful blindness to this phenomenon, looking the other way in order to hit sales targets and meet Wall Street estimates.

Meanwhile, the smuggling network has evolved in parallel with one of the fastest datacenter buildouts in Southeast Asia, involving numerous subsidiaries, local companies, and datacenter operators who have absorbed every lesson from the smuggling playbook and are now working around the clock to build a datacenter empire across the SEA region.

[Pedro Gutiérrez @GutierrezCap_]

Not really. If prices go up from 2.50 to 5.00, people will buy less gas. You also get lower processing fees as a percentage of the average ticket because those fees are fixed.

$V and $MA are hedges against higher consumption propensity, which usually contributes to inflation. But if inflation is driven by natural scarcity, what you usually get is lower demand because of elasticity.

You could say that it is a hedge against inflation in goods and services with inelastic demand.

What they really benefit from is deflation combined with stronger demand.

[alvaro @alvaroinvests]

@jimezgo_ qué pasada, sabes menos de economía que una patata

[alvaro @alvaroinvests]

and there’s still more to come

[alvaro @alvaroinvests]

short $CRWV

[alvaro @alvaroinvests]

@digitaleliff theme

[Kakashii @kakashiii111]

So, Oracle reported their backlog for the next five years to distract from the double miss. This backlog depends on OpenAI continuing to raise funds, eventually turning profitable, and Nvidia effectively renting its own GPUs.

This late-stage AI earnings fantasy is getting more and more creative.

[alvaro @alvaroinvests]

@Samuel_Ecom1 AI

[alvaro @alvaroinvests]

🫧🫧

[Pedro Gutiérrez @GutierrezCap_]

No sacan el press release, el DSO arriba un +17%, los receivables arriba 4bn QoQ, los inventarios creciendo otros 4bn QoQ, reducen la cantidad de información reportada significativamente.

Vale 60x beneficios, es un 8% del S&P500, un 10% del Nasdaq.

[Kakashii @kakashiii111]

I’ve been consistently warning that Nvidia was becoming a systemic risk, and now it has. Systematic risks aren’t new to the global financial system, they’ve always been around and always will be.

But we’ve never seen a single company come this close to outgrowing the second-largest stock market in the world. The best part? Around 30% of their revenue comes from just a few customers, another 30–40% leans on China, which, in turn, depends on smooth smuggling and approvals for downgraded chips.

And for the grand finale, they’ve been consistently using accounting “magic tricks” barely legal if at all.

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

This signals $GOOG bought too many GPUs than what they needed. What’s this signal is a worsening GPUs supply glut not the opposite - not sure this is a “win” for Jensen considering his big customers will optimise what they have already instead of buying more to expand capacity

[alvaro @alvaroinvests]

@FynCas AD

[The Coastal Journal @1CoastalJournal]

$CRWV Enron Problem?

Accounts receivable exploded 364% to $1.93B.
That’s not cash in the bank, that’s IOUs. DSO is pushing 97 days, meaning customers haven’t paid for a huge chunk of “sales.”

Operating cash flow? –$251M. They’re bleeding cash while touting “adjusted” EBITDA of $753M—built on stripping out massive costs like $177M in stock comp & ignoring $267M in interest.

https://t.co/QTszmPd4g1

[alvaro @alvaroinvests]

@FynCas UGC