Ryan Smith

🇺🇸Retired Big 4 CPA, ex CFO, proud Deplorable. Native Mainah. Boothbay Harbor/Lakewood Ranch.

[Ryan Smith @RyanSmitty197]

$META Large add. This is a buy here on the issuance dump.

[Ryan Smith @RyanSmitty197]

$RKT I think spot on with how this plays out. Added more here and expecting a multi-day move on the “Mission Accomplished” truth social post by the President

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

Continue to feel that unfurling the 'Mission Accomplished' banner by EOM & limiting further strikes to 'retaliation only' is the only ST path to de-escalation.

Leveraging my oil profits into more $DHT $RKT & $NAMM

[Andre-ACGT @Andre_AGTC]

$MLYS
paying 200M to buy the royalty from Tanabe, plus 100M in sales milestones.
Royalty is 5-10%, mid 7.5%
To justify that, MLYS need 2.5-3.5B peak rev.
I guess it's cleaning the deck to make it more attractive for BO
$NVS and $LLY are potential buyer

[dough @semodough]

$ABVX hosted a call with a community-based GI KOL to discuss the recent Ph3
ABTECT maintenance data
The KOL agreed that the non-NMSC events were likely unrelated to obe and that
a low NMSC risk would not be a concern
Best-in-disease efficacy and favorable safety support meaningful early-line use for
his patients as well as use in treatment-experienced/refractory patients

[Ryan Smith @RyanSmitty197]

$UNH Big reduction in position size but ready to ad back the next time the guaranteed politician bashing causes a drop.

[Ryan Smith @RyanSmitty197]

$ELV added here. MA rate for 27 on deck but expect healthcare to start acting defensive like it usually does. Like $UNH better but that position is already uncomfortably large so no adds there.

[Ryan Smith @RyanSmitty197]

$CEG Interesting analysis. Just added more as algo sell off for no reason just like what happened with $UNH earlier in the year. Trimmed more $UNH as moving risk around and prefer to sell into strength.

[Keith Kaplan @KeithTradeSmith]

Crossover signal just fired on $CEG

$CEG's MACD histogram just crossed below zero - the textbook bearish flip. On

Constellation Energy specifically, history says read it as the opposite.

30 prior occurrences with full forward data. 100% finished higher 12 months later.

12M Avg Return: +73.1%
6M Avg Return: +34.3%
Avg Max Drawdown: -30.1%

When a "bearish" signal has a 30-for-30 record going the other way, that's edge.

**Important note, only 4 years of stock data for $CEG ...

#CEG #signalstudies #stocks #trading

[Investing.com @Investingcom]

* CITI WARNS GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS ARE THE FROTHIEST SINCE 2008

$SPY $QQQ

[Ryan Smith @RyanSmitty197]

$EPD $MPLX Nice mention in Barrons. Buy the toll takers.

https://t.co/H9824Igflh

[Ryan Smith @RyanSmitty197]

Maine Democrats are insane. I’m here 1/2 the year and it’s a complete shit show compared to FL. Where’s the outrage from the “Me 2” movement and LBGTs-they’ve put aside all morals. If voters elect this tool over Collins, Maine deserves the financial hit that will come

[New York Post @nypost]

Graham Platner knew exact meaning behind Nazi-linked 'Totenkopf' tattoo, ex-girlfriend claims https://t.co/4NkIndTEri

[Ryan Smith @RyanSmitty197]

$SPCX LOL. Right on que, big ratings change at $JPM for Tesla, the other Musk company. Wall Street working hard in a coordinated fashion on this wealth transfer.

https://t.co/6f7AMAf0lz

[LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk]

$SPCX | JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon To Pitch Elon Musk’s SpaceX IPO To Uber-Rich Clients – @nypost https://t.co/d7POqcDpSO

[Frank Rundatz @FrankRundatz]

If we can’t trust Goldman on which IPO to buy… who can we trust?

WeWork. Goldman Sachs marketed the real estate firm at an inflated 96 billion dollar tech valuation. The IPO was pulled after the prospectus exposed massive losses, leading to a 2023 bankruptcy. 

Webvan. Goldman Sachs co-underwrote the online grocer at a 4.8 billion dollar valuation despite minimal revenue. The company collapsed into bankruptcy two years later due to excessive warehouse building costs. 

eToys. Goldman Sachs led the dot-com flotation and aggressively overinflated the startup's market valuation. The firm burned through its capital and entered full liquidation bankruptcy by 2001. 

Deliveroo. Goldman Sachs acted as lead bookrunner to push an aggressive 8.8 billion pound valuation. The stock cratered 31 percent on day one after large institutional funds boycotted the listing.

[Kris Patel 🇺🇸 @KrisPatel99]

$META

One of the parts many US based investors miss completely is just how big WhatsApp is outside the US, especially the Business segment.

Owning the interaction layer is one of the highest ROI vectors for AI. Meta owns this layer via its social media depth.

Whether your a small, medium or large business, you have a presence on social media. The initial pushwas brand awareness and advertising but $META now can monetize the interaction directly via its platform with support provided by AI.

Once people figure this angle out and see the monetization potential... $META is going to see a rip your face off rally.

Zuckerberg isnt spending billions to create an OpenAI or Claude clone... its working to solidify its moat and increase its own margins by stripping out costs.

[Ryan Smith @RyanSmitty197]

@regardingsemi $CHTR stock price agrees with you-5 year bleed $682 to $129 and VZ & T shareholders now catching on. I’ve posted on this a few times but post the Frontier/VZ merger close, Verizon is offering crazy incentives 4 new customers who bundle cell and internet (72% reduction for us)

[Quality Compounders @QualCompounders]

Everyone is chasing hot chip and memory stocks while completely ignoring the energy bottleneck.

$CEG and $VST are two of the best-positioned names to capture this exploding demand — locked in with 20-year contracts from hyperscalers.

The real AI infrastructure winners won’t just be the semiconductor names.

[Ryan Smith @RyanSmitty197]

$LULU Brand is gone, stock still overvalued here and bringing in an ex-Nike exec as CEO a bad move. Analyst on CNBC with a buy rating clueless. I called this a while ago just from doing some basic “Peter Lynch style” research

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

$LULU Q1’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS

🔹 Revenue: $2.5B (Est. $2.5) 🟡; +4% YoY
🔹 EPS: $1.69 (Est. $1.69) 🟡
🔹 Comparable Sales: +1%
🔹 Americas Revenue: -3% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 54.2%; -410 bps YoY

FY Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $11.0B-$11.15B, down from prior $11.35B-$11.5B 🔴
🔹 EPS: $10.95-$11.15, down from prior $12.10-$12.30 🔴

Q2 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $2.450B-$2.475B; -3% to -2% YoY
🔹 EPS: $1.76-$1.81 (Est. $2.69) 🔴

Other Metrics:
🔹 International Revenue: +22% YoY
🔹 Americas Comps: -5%
🔹 International Comps: +13%
🔹 Stores: 816, with 5 net new stores opened

Financials:
🔹 Operating Income: $276.9M; -37% YoY
🔹 Operating Margin: 11.2%; -730 bps YoY
🔹 Cash & Cash Equivalents: $1.5B
🔹 Inventory: $1.7B; +2% YoY

Capital Return:
🔹 Buybacks: 2.2M shares for $358.3M

Commentary:
🔸 “More recently, we have been navigating headwinds that have led us to adjust our outlook for the full year.”

🔸 “We recognize that we have more work to do, and our teams remain focused on our priorities as we continue our efforts to reignite growth and realize lululemon's full potential.”

[taobanker @taobanker]

$META

2025 REVENUE -- $200bb
2030 REVENUE -- $472bb
Delta --> $272bb

2026-2030 capex: $831bb

That's $272bb / $831bb = 32.7% ROIC

the author of the FT article is literally committing financial terrorism

[Ryan Smith @RyanSmitty197]

$UNH LOL that bears tried to make this Massachusetts suit into a thing. Giant nothingburger

https://t.co/6vCwbjLFtY

[The Assembly @InTheAssembly]

Cathie Wood did it again.

She bought $32.8M of $CBRS at $310, one day after the IPO closed at $311.

The stock now trades at $207. Down 33% in 3 weeks.

ARKK is still one of the worst performing funds in the entire market.

[Adam May @A_May_MD]

There are going to be case studies written about this initial $ABVX reaction, and (if we can get it) the subsequent rapid snap back ( 🤞🏻 ).

My HEAVILY BIASED opinion is that if the market comes to its senses and realizes this thing is not getting a black box warning we are going to >$150 in no time.

In reality if the “malignancy overhang” can be completely dispelled, there’s no reason we couldn’t see it go back to the brief initial market reaction of ~$180. Personally I’m already convinced that the malignancy stuff is statistical noise, but let’s see what the company can show the market about these cases and the extra data to convince people. This could’ve been upfront if they were just ready to explain what they already had, but oh well.

Once this black box warning stuff is put to bed, I can’t emphasize enough that the efficacy results here were at a level I literally didn’t even model for. Those endoscopic remission rates in particular are at levels I didn’t even think were possible for a single drug to produce.

With a clean label and a hit in crohn’s (which is now much more likely given the *extreme* efficacy in UC), this is an $8-$10B/year peak sales drug...pick your multiple on that…🤷🏻‍♂️

Again, I’m heavily biased and there’s no such thing as a guarantee, but this all seems very clear to me already. Unfortunately it’s not my opinion that matters! Let’s see what Mr. Market has in store.

[Ryan Smith @RyanSmitty197]

$VZ Down 10% from my exit and neither this nor $T should be touched imo. Way too much competition and starlink going to be taking more share. Recently moved internet and cell from Spectrum to $VZ and the massive discounts offered by Verizon is going to be a headwind to margins

[Ryan Smith @RyanSmitty197]

$VZ Bullish AF. Wait until the Frontier synergies start and people realize how accretive the acquisition is. Will be really curious to see how this trades in early 2026 once the Trump Fed cuts rates 200 bps, boomers see their MM fund yields crater and div replacement is bought

[MacroEdge @MacroEdgeRes]

Verizon to cut around 15,000 jobs

#MacroEdge

[Ryan Smith @RyanSmitty197]

$VZ All out of an 8% position here. Up 23% ytd and looking for more upside with the volatility likely coming this week. Nibbled on a few more $SLNO here-I can wait for the noise to clear