Avian Capital

L/S Emerging Hedge Fund Manager. Dot connector.

None of what I post is investment advice

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

I finally got my algo for instagram on the trading side of things…. and oh man it’s 2021 all over again. This is not going to end well

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

@AretardInvestor Of course. If you do get interested I highly recommend watching the 2024 investor day on youtube to understand the company better. And you can see how theyve executed on everything since and more

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

$LMND is cheap

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

Think about this often

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

@AretardInvestor I first bought slightly under $3B market cap and truly think it can 10x to 30B over time

https://t.co/iJfhaRZDWV

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

https://t.co/k1J8tSYxkE

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

I finally got my algo for instagram on the trading side of things…. and oh man it’s 2021 all over again. This is not going to end well

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

@TheRealBirnbaum Nope I do think they are being disingenuous I never said they weren't

That's different than lying, which you accused them of

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

@ACapitalLP Yes that is exactly my point there are leading indicators and I see them I guess the CFO who left is too. Thats why the stock is down. You asked what you're missing

Buying here is taking a bet that it won't deteriorate

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

@mr_bid_ Berkshire went long LEN when I shorted them last year. Fast forward its down 40%

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

@ACapitalLP You asked why it’s not asymmetric r/r here and what you’re missing… you’re missing the possibility for it to detiorate into the future

By the time it shows up and confirms, the stock will have nuked further

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

@TheRealBirnbaum I didn't say revenue will be lower than 65B next year?

You're accusing them of lying

A company that has grown as much as they have in the last 12 months is very likely to have 9B in ttm revenue

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

@TMTLongShort Are you telling me to short SaaS

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

@AuditTheHerd Yeah I would love that tbh

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

$180 by the end of 2028 is my bull case for $TEM

This weekly candle makes me believe that we are finally getting started

Enjoy the squiggly lines

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

@ChapoGrimey https://t.co/nFpLSfqwfr

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

Okay here is what I was looking for:

In the 2008 cycle, homebuilders topped far before the market (April 2026). Homebuilders topped in 2024

Later consumer discretionary topped 5 months before the market. Consumer discretionary topped Jan 2026

Later semiconductors a few months before the market topped. Semiconductors topped June 2026

Then the market topped, and some sectors topped after. And the top was followed by a run in energy. We are currently seeing $XLE go on a run.

I have said for awhile, that this cycle resembles 2008 in many ways. Every market is different. Things don't happen exactly the same way but there's a lot of similarities.

It's hard for me to see many of these sectors making new highs anytime soon. So I believe there is a high likelihood we are just about at the top for this cycle.

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

@davey_juice What is revenue gonna come in at 29-30?

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

@GrowthThesis 🙏

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

I quit quite possibly the best job I could've possibly asked for. Remote job in finance was quite unheard of. The company was amazing and I was very happy and loved my team

That's how you know how badly I want this

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Fully remote workers report the highest well-being, and are less likely to quit, per FORTUNE

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

@crux_capital_ Appreciate it my friend

[Avian Capital @aviancapital]

@crux_capital_ Well I started posting on X last year for fun. I still do it for fun but yes I do network through here and show I am good at what I do to get people interested in investing