NYT: 2018 vs 2022 who polls overestimated
Ohio:
2018: Overestimated dem by 🔵 +4.5
2022: Overestimated dem by 🔵 +3.6
Florida:
2018: Overestimated dem by 🔵 +2.7
2022: Overestimated dem by 🔵 +8.9
Maine:
2018: Overestimated dem by 🔵 +2.4
2022: Overestimated GOP by 🔴 +4.3
New Hampshire:
2018: Overestimated dem by 🔵 +1.6
2022: Overestimated GOP by 🔴 +4.4
Michigan:
2018: Overestimated dem by 🔵 +0.7
2022: Overestimated GOP by 🔴 +4.8
Iowa:
2018: Overestimated dem by 🔵 +0.3
2022: Overestimated dem by 🔵 +2.4
Georgia:
2018: Overestimated dem by 🔵 +0.2
2022: Overestimated GOP by 🔴 +0.7
Texas:
2018: Overestimated GOP by 🔴 +3.0
2022: Overestimated dem by 🔵 +3.3
A lot of people on our side are demoralized and they feel like they're going to be crushed, so they want to exercise personal agency by participating in their own destruction. It's backwards reasoning. They start by expecting to lose. Then they rationalize it.