This chart from John Authers always-insightful note reminds us that the (mainly but not exclusively) US-led yield surge is now a generalized phenomenon, especially when it comes to reaching multi-decade levels.
#economy#bonds#markets#yields@johnauthers
🔴Oracle’s credit risk is exploding:
Oracle’s 5-year CDS spread has surged to a record ~230 bps, more than 4x the broader investment-grade index at ~55 bps.
The spread has more than QUADRUPLED over the last year and surpassed the Great Financial Crisis levels.
The recent surge comes as Oracle is trying to avoid financial commitments linked to Project Jupiter, a massive data-center project that is facing delays.
Around $18 billion of loans tied to the project are trading at ~90 cents on the dollar, signaling growing stress among investors.
The project is also facing local opposition and delays in government approvals, adding to the uncertainty.
Oracle’s credit risk is rising at an alarming pace.
Global Central Bank Update:
-The Fed hiked rates for the first time since 2023, 25 bps move up to 3.75-4.00%. Signaled more hikes to come before year end.
Household net worth as % of disposable personal income, which measures households’ ability to finance consumption out of their wealth, reached a record in 2Q26 @federalreserve
Tomorrow's Fed meeting is a nightmare for Warsh. There's no way he can live up to all the hikes priced, so the press conference will likely disappoint markets. The Dollar is likely to fall and long yields likely to rise. My map for price action tomorrow:
https://t.co/QIA0rYUp4b
Do rising yields hurt stocks?
This chart focuses exclusively on periods when yields were rising and further divides them based on whether growth was strengthening or weakening. The distinction is clear: rising yields were a meaningful headwind for stocks when accompanied by weakening growth.
Source: @AugurInfinity
🇨🇳China's National Bureau of Statistics said August equipment-manufacturing value added rose 12.1% YoY and high-tech manufacturing rose 16.7% YoY, respectively 6.9 and 11.5 percentage points faster than total industrial value added for enterprises above designated size. (https://t.co/sgQJBaIopR)
Good Morning from Germany, where the AAA rating is becoming a growth bet. Rating agency Scope sees potential growth at just 0.8% vs 1.6% for AAA peers and debt rising from 63.5% of GDP in 2025 to ~83% by 2036. If growth slips to 0.4% and borrowing costs rise 50bp, debt nears 90%.
Almost all of the Fed watchers that had not been expecting a September hike before today changed their call after the August CPI printed a bit firmer than expected
AI’s spending boom is fueling a record surge in convertible bonds.
U.S.-listed companies have raised $131 billion in 2026, already an annual record. Roughly 44% came from AI-related firms, and nearly 30% of new convertibles carry a 0% coupon.
Cheaper financing today, potential dilution tomorrow.
The U.S. Treasury just doubled the maximum size of certain long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.
Long-term yields immediately fell.
But 99% of investors don't udnerstand what this ACTUALLY means-
Here’s what is actually happening: 🧵
Good Morning from #Germany, which is no longer among world’s 10 most innovative countries. Acc to World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), which measures innovation strength of 139 nations, Germany has fallen to 11th place, overtaken by China. WIPO uses 78 indicators to assemble its Global Innovation Index. https://t.co/jrhpICvqV0