Andrew Grant

Climate change, nature, natural resources.

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@ISDaramus We can't stop using fossil fuels overnight.

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@AlexEpstein Now do building and operating.

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@Atomic__Bear @TJK_EOD @SM_EOD Nightingale, I think

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@BurggrabenH @INArteCarloDoss @kittysquiddy PS I think your pinned thread is excellent. The other aspects I suspect contribute are cyclical/investment effects from the price paradigm of the last 8 years and whipsawing demand in 2020-21, and current difficulties for Eur governments executing complex projects in general.

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@BurggrabenH @INArteCarloDoss @kittysquiddy I'd argue separating changes to the system and the choices of individuals within that system is a false dichotomy. ICE efficiency will respond to policy by governments elected by EU citizens and consumer preferences for efficient cars, rather than manufacturers in a vacuum.

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@INArteCarloDoss @kittysquiddy @BurggrabenH Was it lower than expected though? Would have thought that having low wind shouldn't be an issue if you weren't planning to rely on it (clearly solar did just fine).

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@INArteCarloDoss @kittysquiddy @BurggrabenH Has intermittency of wind/solar been an issue? Hydro and nuclear gen have been down due to heat/drought, and shortfalls in fossil fuels from Russian of course. We can say intermittency might be an issue going forward, but seems like a red herring in discussing the current crisis.

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@INArteCarloDoss @kittysquiddy @BurggrabenH It's not accurate to say that European hydrocarbon consumption has not fallen - energy equivalent fossil fuel use is down 22% 2006-2021. Consumption of each of oil, gas and coal are down on the mid 2000s.

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@TwainsMustache @mailboxmoney6 @DevoutDriller @Suicide95518428 Where have I sought to discredit you? I asked your opinion - as I noted earlier, people with the same available information end up with different views, why they get those different views is interesting imho. Your reaction says something in itself I suppose. Have a good evening!

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@TwainsMustache @mailboxmoney6 @DevoutDriller @Suicide95518428 The LeChatelier bit is their rationale for ignoring water vapour feedback, which is their rationale for the diminishing effect of CO2. But nevermind.

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@TwainsMustache @mailboxmoney6 @DevoutDriller @Suicide95518428 Huh? I am making a substantive point on the science and it's you that keeps bringing up their credentials?

I merely asked you to look inside yourself and ask why you prefer them, rather than any other eminent scientist on the consensus side. That shouldn't feel like an attack!

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@TwainsMustache @mailboxmoney6 @DevoutDriller @Suicide95518428 But lots of people know more than us - if you're just going to appeal to authority, why do you think you prefer these particular authorities that are in a very small minority, rather than those that reflect the consensus?

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@TwainsMustache @mailboxmoney6 @DevoutDriller @Suicide95518428 You don't think it's a problem to violate the conditions of the principle being invoked? I'd be interested in your justification? Don't worry if you don't know, not everyone can know everything (although suspect this could be worked out).

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@TwainsMustache @mailboxmoney6 @DevoutDriller @Suicide95518428 I note you haven't engaged with the point by the way - do you see the mistake? Does it diminish your view of the authors? Why do you think they made that basic error?

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@TwainsMustache @mailboxmoney6 @DevoutDriller @Suicide95518428 In the excerpt you posted it's the one argument they make to support their assertion that climate sensitivity is 0.84C rather than 3C, so quite important. Other than a vague statement that 3C isn't supported by history (it is, and other lines of evidence https://t.co/zeCAahQuaU)

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@TwainsMustache @mailboxmoney6 @DevoutDriller @Suicide95518428 Of course, in both directions. I think I've already said that here, and you wouldn't find a scientist that claims otherwise. But again it's a totally separate point to whether the climate is changing or not.

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@Suicide95518428 @TwainsMustache @mailboxmoney6 @DevoutDriller Not my job to do your homework, but here you go https://t.co/cgjfRTShfG

Of course there are big uncertainties particularly on the economics, anyone will tell you that. But if you're looking for historical data on future climate change you're going to be disappointed.

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@TwainsMustache @mailboxmoney6 @DevoutDriller @Suicide95518428 You can believe that today's people won't make the sacrifice for tomorrow's while still believing climate change is a big problem, you don't need to try to downplay it. Although suspect it makes it cognitively easier to live with that balance if you dismiss the future suffering.

[Andrew Grant @amwgrant]

@TwainsMustache @mailboxmoney6 @DevoutDriller @Suicide95518428 Studies tend to show that the benefits of climate action outweigh the costs in the long run. But it is true that the cost is now and the benefit later - that's always been the challenge. But it's a totally separate point.